Note: Polymarket's bet on the Nobel Peace Prize winner 11 hours in advance has attracted attention. User X Fhantom Bets offered a speculation. Compiled by Jinse Finance.
Last night, I conducted a difficult interview with a so-called "insider" in the Nobel Peace Prize market on Polymarket.
Despite an hour of questioning, we still don't understand how a trader or team knew Maria Machado would win the prize 12 hours in advance. It turns out the answer might be hiding in plain sight—on the Nobel Prize website. During the interview, several issues stood out. One possibility is a web scraper, as the trader said he used a similar strategy to extract market mentions from Lex Fridman's transcripts (e.g., does Taylor Swift say "cat" in an interview? Does Trump say "Biden"?), information that anyone can access, and "you can brute-force a lot of things." This suggests there was a way to find Machado's URL before it was published. The Nobel Prize website runs on WordPress. Like many WordPress setups, it has an XML sitemap that lists all indexable pages, even those that haven't yet been made public. If someone monitors this sitemap, they can easily notice the appearance of a new page, for example: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2025/machado/facts/
“Most likely, someone wrote a bot or script that watches the upload folder or sitemap for new files. When this image appeared, they connected the dots.”
On the Nobel Prize website, the “last modified” timestamp in the metadata of Machado’s official portrait file is 07:18 GMT on October 10, an hour and a half before the announcement.
Portrait URL: https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2025/10/1-2_3-68e8b33bd36fa-scaled.jpg
The image was uploaded to the official Nobel Prize announcement page: http://nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2025, which you can guess by replacing 2025 with 2024.
Furthermore, there are other pages on the XML sitemap that show Machado as the winner before the official announcement, all around 07:20 GMT.
The timestamps prove that by early morning, the Nobel website had already loaded the material announcing the winners. This also raises a larger question: 192);">Was it visible before then?
The data I could find only shows the "last modified" date of the webpage, meaning the image was posted at or before this time. Looking back, we only know the most recent timestamp for this image, which was maybe 12 hours ago, and the information available on these pages only hinted at Machado being one of multiple winners.
Regardless, it's cool to see strong evidence pointing to Machado as the winner just hours before the official announcement.
There are still some unanswered questions. Unfortunately, the rest is... speculation.
User X Polysights replied to this post: The possibilities increase exponentially. For example: the person who modified the photo likely knew the winner. This person probably told 5 people, who probably told 5 more people, and so on. Information is king. Whether scraped from the web, from a privileged source, etc. Whether insider or not.
X user Louis Amira said: I guess the person who updated the website earlier that day was not one of the five members of the Nobel Prize Committee.
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