A-shares are bullish, where is the crypto market heading?

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

During the seven days of the National Day holiday, many KOLs in the Chinese crypto circle began to publicly announce a new operation:

Exit the crypto ecosystem and transfer funds to A-shares in large quantities.

Seeing this operation, I still want to remind our readers:

If you are very confident that you are a genius in operation and can accurately grasp the future market trends of the crypto ecosystem and A-shares, then you can imitate this operation-----perfectly use the rhythm of different investment markets to make a lot of money, otherwise I suggest you act cautiously.

I believe that in the crypto ecosystem, many readers, especially young readers, have spent much more time in the crypto ecosystem than in A-shares, and are much more familiar with and understand the crypto ecosystem than A-shares.

Just because another market that you are not familiar with has experienced drastic fluctuations in the market, you let go of the market you are familiar with and rashly enter an unfamiliar territory, which is really "a sheep into the tiger's mouth".

Many of these KOLs usually disdain A-shares, but this 180-degree change is not surprising to me, because there are even more outrageous ones than them - those well-known international institutional investors.

Today I will only talk about the most famous and familiar one: BlackRock Capital.

Its CEO Larry Fink mentioned in an interview earlier (roughly): "When I talk to Chinese executives, there is a fear that we (A-shares) have not reached the bottom yet. Will this be the bottom for China?"

The above remarks reveal BlackRock's deep concerns about A-shares earlier. Therefore, we all know BlackRock's final operation in A-shares - tearfully liquidating positions and withdrawing from A-shares.

When this operation was exposed, I remember that major domestic media made a famous joke about BlackRock's investment in A-shares: "You can't buy it all, you can't buy it all at all."

However, on September 24, after the central government introduced a series of stimulus measures and a series of overseas capitals were "restless" in the face of the rise of A-shares, BlackRock actually began to pay attention to Chinese stocks again ---------upgrading it from "neutral" to "overweight".

This change is really quite fast and agile for such a large institution.

Who says that big companies react slowly? I think BlackRock's reaction is extremely fast, and its speed and agility are no less than that of a startup company.

In the article on September 26, I wrote the following:

"......Among this kind of people, there are two kinds of views on the future market:

The first kind: A shares have completely bottomed out, and the stock market will move forward in waves from now on.

The second kind: I am afraid there will be a more miserable final drop, which is likely to fall below the previous low, and most of the people who have only hope left will be in tears and heartbroken. And when this last drop is completed, A shares will usher in a vigorous bull market.

What I am curious about now is: if the above "second kind" situation occurs, and this last miserable big drop really comes, how will BlackRock change its rating of Chinese stocks at that time?

For Wall Street institutions such as BlackRock, the two old gentlemen Buffett and Munger often mention them in their shareholder Q&A meetings, and their tone is quite disdainful.

If you have seen the American movie "The Wolf of Wall Street", you will be able to deeply understand this kind of "disdain".

In the movie, although the Wolf of Wall Street works on Wall Street, his ability to make money does not rely on investment concepts, nor on values ​​and ways of thinking, but on sales methods.

His key ability is to convince his clients that the investment products he sells have "potential" and can "appreciate in value". As for whether those investment products really have "potential" and can "appreciate in value", that is not what he cares about. Maybe they really have the potential to appreciate in value, or maybe they are simply worthless.

In short, when he wants to sell his investment products, he has a lot of "reasons" and a lot of "data" to convince customers that the investment products really have a bright future.

There are countless such institutions on Wall Street.

Let's look back at the case of BlackRock.

In Larry In Fink's statement, he repeatedly mentioned the concept of "bottom fishing". In this regard alone, he is not on the same level as the two old gentlemen, Buffett and Munger, in terms of investment.

Because bottom fishing is basically a matter of luck.

Anyone who operates with the idea of ​​"bottom fishing" is not investing but speculation. And speculation is only temporary and unsustainable.

Let's talk about the A-share stocks that BlackRock bought before.

If it was the stock of a very good company, obviously in the macro environment at the time, I think the price would not be overvalued. And for a stock that is not overvalued but very valuable The lower the price of a stock, the better it should be bought. But BlackRock's operation clearly proves that it does not understand the value of the company.

If it is a stock of a very bad company, it is purely for the purpose of listing and raising money and looking for an opportunity to sell the company. BlackRock bought such a company, which proves that its vision is really not flattering - it does not understand the company it invested in clearly enough, and even does not know that it is a fraudulent company.

If BlackRock left A-shares because it felt that the fundamentals of A-shares, the overall environment, and even some sensitive aspects had serious problems. Then today, even after the central government introduced these measures, the aspects it was worried about have not changed much. Why did its views change immediately?

If BlackRock left A-shares not because of fundamentals but simply because it believed that A-shares needed stimulus measures, but from the information it had, it could not see the hope of stimulus measures. That proves that the information it had was problematic, especially the so-called "Chinese executives" mentioned by Larry Fink had obvious problems in their judgment of future trends. Such a person turned out to be a senior executive of BlackRock, which shows the level of trend analysis of the company's senior management.

In short, from all aspects, BlackRock is more like the typical Wall Street "sales" company depicted in "The Wolf of Wall Street", relying on the promotion of its financial products, and not necessarily the kind of investment company we imagine--relying on its investment level.

But what's interesting is that many of these companies are "high-end" "authoritative" "investment" companies in the eyes of the general public.

Can such companies become the objects of learning and reference for our investors in investment? Of course not.

But are the so-called "research reports" of such companies valuable? Of course they are.

We can judge the potential space and possible user groups of an investment market through their research reports, so as to evaluate the possible upper limit of this market in the future.

I often see readers leave messages like this at the end of the article:

I am a novice and don't know XX, so I can only believe the views of XXX (especially some institutions).

With the growth of time and experience, I believe that these readers will one day find that the XXX (institutions) they believe in are not as good as themselves in many cases.

So investment is not about blindly believing in others or institutions. In the end, you still have to rely on yourself, have your own independent thinking, and have your own investment logic.

In the field we are familiar with, we can completely understand it better and more deeply than those institutions, lay out our own plans in advance and wait for institutions to enter the market to increase the overall space of the market, and then we can sit back and enjoy the fruits of their labor.