Abandon illusions – prepare for the most agonizing moment in the crypto market.

Author: Santiago Roel Santos; Translator: Tim, PANews

The Price and Adoption Paradox

Crypto adoption will continue, but market prices may not recover for a long time.

This contradiction between the accelerating adoption and the lagging market prices is not a flaw, but a necessary characteristic of the current stage of crypto market evolution.

If you look at the crypto market from a ten-year perspective, its prospects are very attractive. However, maintaining this long-term perspective is psychologically challenging. You should be prepared to watch adoption rates expand while prices stagnate or slowly decline; you should also be prepared to witness others profiting in other areas (artificial intelligence, stocks, or the next hot trend) while the crypto space seems to be forgotten.

It will feel very unfair, and the process will be agonizing.

However, price lag is inevitable. Fundamentally, many crypto assets shouldn't have enjoyed their previous valuations. The market doesn't care about actual adoption until prices crash and then it does. Adoption proliferation breeds bubbles. Early adoption can actually create bubbles. This is the growing pain of value discovery; when real demand can't support inflated valuations, the market will recalibrate, which is essential for long-term healthy development. When crypto infrastructure achieves large-scale adoption, it becomes clear that external investment far exceeds actual demand. Adoption proliferation will be a stress test of business models, not a validation of value. Some projects will perish in obscurity, while others will survive, but their valuations will be far below the vision painted at their peak. Cryptocurrencies are gradually fading from the spotlight, becoming less prominent. They're going from exciting to mundane, but this is a necessary step in the process of maturing from hype. This is a good thing. This isn't the first time this has happened. During the dot-com bubble burst, the Nasdaq plummeted by about 78%, while the number of internet users tripled and broadband infrastructure was deployed across the board. It took the market years to recover, but now the internet has quietly reshaped the world, and while investors are still licking their wounds, software has already "swallowed" the world.

Infrastructure technology will not reward short-sighted investors.

When infrastructure prevails, who will be the real winners?

The shift in market phases will make many participants uncomfortable. Those builders who have poured years of effort into maintaining open-source codebases will witness other companies copying their achievements and reaping most of the economic benefits; native crypto venture capital firms that invested in infrastructure early on will see traditional venture capital firms gain more value; retail investors who buy tokens instead of equity may feel marginalized, as companies benefit from the ecosystem network but do not return the corresponding value to token holders.

I'm not particularly optimistic about price action over the next few years. Adoption will continue to rise, but prices could fall further, potentially exacerbated by broader stock mean reversion and a cooling AI hype cycle.

However, patience is a major advantage. I am bullish on the Encryption-as-a-Service model. I am bullish on companies empowered by encryption. I am bearish on over-financialization. I am bearish on failed unit economics. I am bearish on over-construction of infrastructure. Protecting principal has become crucial. Cash is undervalued: not for its returns, but for the psychological immunity it provides. It allows you to act decisively when others cannot. The market has entered a fast-paced and increasingly impatient era. Today, having a longer time horizon than most participants is a substantial advantage. Professional managers must frequently rebalance their portfolios to prove their worth. Faced with increasing life pressures, retail investors are increasingly chasing short-term trends. Institutional investors, too, will inevitably declare cryptocurrency dead once again. Gradually, more traditional companies will adopt crypto technology, and more balance sheets will be connected to the blockchain. One day, when we look back on this period, everything will seem so clear. The signals are everywhere, but unwavering conviction often seems effortless only after prices have risen. Until then: wait for the pain to arrive. Wait for sellers to cut their losses, wait for faith to crumble, but we haven't reached that stage yet. Don't rush into action; the market will continue to fluctuate, life goes on, spend more time with those you care about. Don't let your portfolio become your entire life. The crypto world will operate silently, whether the market is in the shadows or in the bright light. Good luck to everyone.