After its share price halved, will Metaplanet continue its Bitcoin bet?

Since last year, Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, has attracted significant attention for its Bitcoin asset strategy, with its stock price rising over 40-fold at one point. Public information indicates that the company currently holds 20,000 Bitcoins, making it the sixth-largest Bitcoin treasury in the world. However, despite Bitcoin's strength since April of this year, Metaplanet's stock price has retreated over 50% since peaking in June, highlighting its increasingly pronounced decoupling from BTC.

Endogenous variables in the crypto market are weakening

From its initial roots as a hotel company to its current holdings of 20,000 bitcoins, Metaplanet has mastered the "buy bitcoins - raise shares - raise funds - and then buy more bitcoins" model in less than two years.

In April 2024, as Bitcoin bottomed out and rebounded, the company initiated additional issuance and convertible bond financing, purchasing its first batch of BTC. After the stock price rose, the company further increased its holdings through additional issuance by shareholders and low-interest loans. As of early September 2025, the company held approximately 20,000 Bitcoins and had a crypto market capitalization exceeding $2 billion, ranking it the sixth-largest Bitcoin treasury company (after MicroStrategy, MARA, XXI, Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, and Bullish). Furthermore, the company has set a year-end target of 30,000 Bitcoins and will continue purchasing in September and October according to its planned fundraising plan. President Simon Gerovich stated at the special shareholders' meeting that the company aims to acquire a cumulative total of 210,000 BTC (approximately 1% of the supply) by 2027. As of the close of trading on September 2 (UTC+9), Metaplanet was trading at 832 yen, a 57% decline from its June high of 1,930 yen. Assuming 20,000 coins and approximately $108,000-111,000 in BTC, the treasury's market capitalization is approximately $2.16-2.22 billion, corresponding to a "market capitalization / market capitalization of coin holdings" ratio of ≈ 1.8 (approximately the mNAV premium, excluding other assets/liabilities). The divergence between stock prices and coin prices isn't solely due to noise from Metaplanet (as detailed in the article "From Misalignment to Concurrent Decline: The Crypto-Stock Correlation Reaches a Crossroads"), nor can it be explained simply by "deteriorating fundamentals." The key lies in the weakening of intrinsic crypto variables. According to SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $751 million in August. Bitcoin funding rates have fallen from their mid-July highs to near zero, turning negative several times during this period. With diminishing marginal buying and weakening leverage momentum, the threshold for re-coupling BTC treasury shares with BTC has been raised.

PUBG or a temporary solution?

It is reported that Metaplanet shareholders have approved an increase in authorized shares and the formulation of preferred stock terms, with a maximum issuance amount of approximately US$3.8 billion. The proceeds will be mainly used to continue purchasing Bitcoin and expand treasury. Preferred shares are uncommon in the Japanese market. While fixed dividends and liquidation preferences provide funding certainty, they also mean immediate dilution and governance discounts. The market will evaluate the effectiveness of this "capital injection" based on whether it can be converted into upward momentum. The key to success lies not in the successful issuance but in the crypto-beta environment encountered by the incoming funds. The company plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 30,000 by the end of this year, which translates into three potential market development paths: 1) Fast-paced (beta recovery): If the Bitcoin spot ETF clearly returns to net inflows, the company will be motivated to quickly purchase nearly all of the additional 10,000 Bitcoins in September and October, with the average price roughly within the current price range. The effect is a rapid increase in the amount of BTC on the books, with the mNAV premium temporarily stabilizing or even correcting. The trade-off is a higher average holding price, greater sensitivity to drawdowns, and the added "rigidity cost" of preferred stock dividends, which amplifies downward volatility. 2) Medium-Pace (β-Neutral): If Bitcoin prices fluctuate in the short term, the company is more likely to purchase in batches, increasing its holdings to between 27,000 and 30,000 by year-end. This approach reduces the risk of buying at a high price, but dilution and preferred stock discounts will offset valuation flexibility, with the stock price likely trading close to mNAV, and the premium unlikely to expand significantly. 3) Slow Pace (Weaker Beta): If net capital outflows continue, Bitcoin prices will struggle to maintain their highs, and the company's mNAV premium will continue to converge or even reach a turning point. The expected dilution from preferred shares/additional offerings and rising financing costs, coupled with a collapse in market sentiment, will further amplify the downward momentum of the stock price, shifting the valuation center downwards, and potentially leading to pressure for passive deleveraging. Conclusion: In short, while the treasury model has provided short-term growth momentum, its fragility is becoming increasingly apparent amidst market volatility and macroeconomic changes. Having gone all-in on Bitcoin, Metaplanet's future is no longer under its own control, instead placing its fate in the hands of the crypto market. As the crypto market increasingly diversifies with compliant purchasing methods, and as Metaplanet, as a follower of this path, shifts from a low-value market to a market consensus, it may face even greater challenges.