Analysis of the Crypto Market in 2025: MEME Boom and Sober Thinking in the Trump Era

1. Current situation: the contradiction between the outbreak of MEME projects on the BSC chain and market differentiation

1. Short-term enthusiasm for MEME projects

- The skyrocketing myth of TST and CaptainBNB: MEME tokens on the BSC chain continue to attract speculative funds. For example, the test token TST mentioned by CZ once soared to 41 million US dollars in market value due to community hype, and CaptainBNB rose by more than 13,000% in 6 hours after its launch. This type of project has become the focus of retail investors with its "zero value support + social media fission" model.

- Speculative logic dominates: Market funds are diverted from mainstream tracks such as Bitcoin and Layer2 to MEME coins, reflecting investors' short-term gaming mentality during policy uncertainty

2. Expected gap in Trump's policies

- The bubble and controversy of TRUMP coins: The TRUMP coins issued by the Trump family once had a market value of more than 12 billion US dollars, but were later questioned as "disguised corruption tools". The "First Lady Coin" issued by his wife Melania further dispersed market funds, causing prices to fall sharply

- Regulatory relaxation did not meet expectations: Although Trump promised to replace the chairman of the SEC and promote the strategic reserve of Bitcoin, the policy was slow to be implemented, and the market's optimism about "deregulation" gradually faded

II. The core contradiction behind the cold market

- MEME track reshuffle: Only a few projects (such as MEME coins combined with AI or practical scenarios) may survive, and most will return to zero due to liquidity depletion

2. Policy-driven structural opportunities

- Clarification of the regulatory framework: If Trump successfully promotes the legislation of the "FIT21 Act", compliant exchanges and stablecoin issuers (such as Circle) will benefit, while gray projects will face elimination

- Layer2 and DeFi recovery: With the implementation of the Ethereum Cancun upgrade, tokens such as ARB and OP may rebound due to technology upgrades and ecological expansion, with a target increase of 50%-100%

3. Macro liquidity rebalancing

- The Fed’s policy shift: If inflation falls below 2.5% in the second half of 2025, rising expectations for rate cuts may trigger a general rise in the crypto market, and Bitcoin is expected to hit $250,000 (Nexo forecast) - Capital inflows into emerging markets: In the cycle of a strong dollar, investors in Latin America and Southeast Asia may increase their holdings of cryptocurrencies to hedge the risk of currency depreciation, driving up demand for BTC, XRP, etc. 4. Investor strategy: defense and offense coexist 1. Short-term defensive allocation - Reduce leverage: It is recommended to control the contract leverage to 3-5 times and avoid overnight holdings of MEME coins - Increase holdings of stablecoins: Keep 20%-30% of funds in USDC or DAI to prevent black swan events 2. Medium- and long-term offensive direction - Bitcoin fixed investment: build positions in batches in the range of US$78,000-82,000, with a long-term target of US$180,000-200,000

- Layer2 leading layout: If OP and ARB pull back to below US$0.4 and US$1.0, they can gradually absorb funds, and the gaming ecology will explode with dividends

3. Beware of risk points

- Trump policy variables: If he fails to deliver on his cryptocurrency-friendly policies, the market may correct by 10%-15%

- MEME project collapse: Closely monitor trading volume and community activity, and set strict stop losses (if the price falls below the support level by 20%)

Conclusion