Are long-term Bitcoin holders starting to sell?

Author: Matt Crosby; Source: Bitcoin Magazine; Compilation: BitpushNews

After a period of volatility, Bitcoin has now recaptured the $100,000 mark and hit a new all-time high, injecting new confidence into the market. But as prices rise, a key question also arises: Are Bitcoin's most experienced and successful holders - long-term holders - starting to sell?

This article will analyze how on-chain data reveals the behavior of long-term holders, and whether recent profit-taking is a cause for concern or just a healthy part of Bitcoin's market cycle.

Signs of profit-taking

**Spent Output Profit Rate (SOPR)** provides instant insight into realized profits across the entire network. Focusing on recent weeks, we can clearly observe an upward trend in profit realization. The clustering of the green bars suggests that a significant number of investors are indeed selling Bitcoin to realize profits, especially after the price rose from the $74,000–75,000 range to a new high of over $100,000.

Figure 1: Spent output profit rate suggests significant profit realization recently.

However, while this may raise concerns about overhead resistance in the short term, it must be understood in the broader on-chain context. This behavior is not uncommon in bull markets and cannot be used alone as a signal of a cycle top.

Long-term holder supply is still growing

“Long-term holder supply” refers to the total amount of Bitcoin held by wallets that have held for more than 155 days, and this indicator continues to rise despite the surge in prices. This trend does not necessarily mean that new buying is currently taking place, but rather indicates that Bitcoin is “aging” into long-term holdings over time without being transferred or sold.

Figure 2: Bitcoin long-term holder supply has increased significantly.

In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding on and are turning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic that typically occurs in the early or mid-stage of a bull market that has not yet shown signs of mass distribution.

HODL Waves Analysis

To further drill down, we used HODL Waves data, which is stratified by the age of wallets. Focusing on wallets that have held coins for 6 months or more, we find that more than 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium- to long-term holders.

Figure 3: HODL Waves analysis shows that medium- and long-term investors hold the majority of Bitcoin.

Interestingly, although this proportion is still high, it has begun to decline slightly, indicating that some long-term holders may be selling, even though the supply of long-term holders is still growing. The main driving force behind the growth of long-term supply seems to be the gradual "aging" of short-term holders into the coin holding range of more than 155 days, rather than large-scale purchases of new funds.

Figure 4: Long-term holder supply change rate is inversely related to Bitcoin price.

Using raw data provided by the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the change rate of long-term holder balances classified by wallet age. When this indicator declines significantly, it often coincides with cycle tops in history. Conversely, when this indicator rises sharply, it often corresponds to market bottoms and deep accumulation phases.

Short-term changes and distribution ratios

To improve the accuracy of these signals, the data can be more finely segmented by comparing "recent holders (0-1 month)" with "medium-term holders (1-5 years)". This comparison of the age distribution of coins can provide more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behavior.

Figure 5: The age distribution ratio of coins provides valuable market insights

We found that when the ratio of 1-5 year holders relative to new holders drops sharply, it often coincides with the top of Bitcoin prices in history. Conversely, when the ratio rises rapidly, that is, more Bitcoin flows into the hands of more experienced investors, it is often a precursor to major price increases.

Changes in the behavior of long-term investors is one of the most effective ways to assess market sentiment and the sustainability of price fluctuations. Historical data shows that long-term holders often outperform short-term traders in terms of profitability by buying in panic and holding on for the long term. By analyzing the age distribution structure of Bitcoin, we can more accurately capture market tops and bottoms without relying on price action or short-term sentiment.

Conclusion

At present, long-term holders have only slightly sold, far from the scale seen at the tops of previous cycles. There is indeed some profit taking, but the pace at which it occurs appears to be completely controllable and a healthy market environment.

Given the current bull market stage and the participation of both institutional and retail investors, the data suggests that we are still in a structurally strong phase, and prices still have room to rise further on the back of continued inflows of new funds.