Note: BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes sold 96,628 HYPE tokens (worth $5.1 million) last night, having purchased them a month earlier. In his WebX Summit speech on August 25th, he predicted a 126-fold increase in HYPE's value. Arthur Hayes just shared a research report from his family office, Maelstrom, explaining his reasons for selling HYPE. Translated by Golden Finance.
Hyperliquid is experiencing epic growth—its ecosystem is thriving, trading volume is reaching all-time highs, and the USDH bidding war has become one of the most intense beauty contests in cryptocurrency history.
However, with the fall of the crown comes the sword of Damocles: HYPE is about to face its true test.
Starting November 29th, 237.8 million HYPE tokens will vest linearly over 24 months. At $50 per token, this represents $11.9 billion in unlocked funds for the team, with nearly $500 million in notional value flowing into the market each month. What's the problem? Current buyback levels can only absorb about 17% of the funds. This means there's a $410 million monthly oversupply. Has the market already priced in this unlocking? The following chart is from Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert: Imagine you're a Hyperliquid developer. You've been working diligently for years. A life-changing sum of tokens is about to arrive; it's just a click away. What will you do?
Sonnet, one of the largest cryptocurrency DATs ever, is expected to close in Q4 2025. It has raised approximately $583 million in HYPE tokens and $305 million in cash.
However, even Sonnet plus other smaller HYPE DATs combined are just a drop in the ocean compared to the HYPE that will soon be unlocked.
You can’t eat the lunch of a cryptocurrency giant and get away unchallenged. Business is war, and the half-life of most cryptocurrency products has always been short—the winners attract a swarm of “vampire”-style attacks. Competition is intensifying, both from tier-one exchanges and new entrants like lighter.xyz (a Maelstrom portfolio company). CZ launching Aster two months early? Perhaps it's no coincidence. The game is on!
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