Author: Daii Source: mirror

Today, the price of Bitcoin once again broke through the $90,000 mark, market sentiment was high, and social media was full of cheers of "The bull is back." But for those investors who were still hesitant and missed the opportunity to get on board at $80,000, this moment is more like an inner torture: Am I too late again? Should you buy decisively on a pullback? Will I have another chance in the future?

This is exactly the key point we want to talk about: In an asset like Bitcoin, which is known for its wild fluctuations, is there really a "value investment" perspective? Can a strategy that seems to run counter to its “high-risk and high-volatility” attributes capture an “asymmetric” opportunity in this turbulent game?

The so-called asymmetry, in the investment world, means that the potential gains are far greater than the potential losses, or vice versa. This doesn’t sound like a property that Bitcoin would have. After all, most people’s impression of Bitcoin is that you either get rich overnight or lose everything.

However, it is behind this polarized cognition that hides an overlooked possibility - in the stage of Bitcoin's cyclical deep decline, the value investment methodology may be able to create an extremely attractive risk-return structure.

Looking back at the history of Bitcoin, it has plummeted by more than 80% or even 90% from its peak several times. At times like these, when markets are gripped by panic and despair, capitulation-style selling makes prices look like they have been driven back to their original levels. But for investors who have a deep understanding of the long-term logic of Bitcoin: that is a typical "asymmetry" - using limited risk in exchange for huge potential returns.

This kind of opportunity is not easily available. It tests investors' cognitive level, emotional control and willpower to hold for the long term. This also brings up another more fundamental question: Do we have reason to believe that Bitcoin really has "intrinsic value"? And if it does exist, how do we quantify it, understand it, and formulate our investment strategies accordingly?

In the following content, we will officially embark on this journey of exploration: revealing the deep logic behind Bitcoin price fluctuations, clarifying how asymmetry shines when "blood flows like a river", and thinking about how the principle of value investment can be reborn in this decentralized era.

However, there is one thing you should first understand: in Bitcoin investment, there is never a shortage of asymmetric opportunities, and there are many of them.

1. Bitcoin, why are there so many asymmetric opportunities?

If you check Twitter today, you will see the overwhelming Bitcoin bull market carnival. The price once again hit the $90,000 mark, and many people shouted on social media, as if the market always belonged only to prophets and lucky people.

But if you look back, you will find that the invitation to this feast had actually been sent out as early as the most desperate moment of the market, but many people did not have the courage to click it.

1.1 Historical asymmetric opportunities

Bitcoin has never been a straight upward trajectory. Its growth history is a script of extreme panic and irrational prosperity. And behind every deepest decline lies an extremely attractive "asymmetric opportunity" - the maximum loss you can bear is limited, but the gains you gain may be exponential.

Let’s travel through time and speak with data.

2011: -94%, from $33 to $2

That was the first time Bitcoin was "widely seen", and the price soared from a few dollars to $33 in half a year. But soon, a crash ensued. The price of Bitcoin plummeted to $2, a drop of 94%.

You can imagine the despair: major geek forums were deserted, developers fled one after another, and even Bitcoin core contributors posted messages expressing doubts about the project's prospects.

But if you just "bet once" at that time and buy it with $1,000, a few years later when the BTC price exceeds $10,000, you will have $5 million in chips.

2013 - 2015: -86%, Mt.Gox collapsed

At the end of 2013, the price of Bitcoin broke through $1,000 for the first time, attracting global attention. But the good times did not last long. In early 2014, the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox, announced its bankruptcy, and 850,000 Bitcoins disappeared from the chain.

Overnight, the media all spoke with one voice: “Bitcoin is over.” CNBC, BBC, and the New York Times all reported the Mt. Gox scandal on their front pages. The price of BTC fell from $1,160 to $150, a drop of more than 86%.

But what happened next? By the end of 2017, the same Bitcoin was priced at $20,000.

2017 - 2018: -83%, ICO bubble burst

The above picture is a report from the New York Times on this big drop. The text in the red box says that the investor lost 70% of the value of his position.

2017 was the first year of “national speculation” when Bitcoin entered the public eye. A large number of ICO projects emerged, and the white papers were filled with words such as "disruption", "reshaping", and "decentralized future", and the entire market fell into a frenzy.

But the tide receded, and Bitcoin fell from its all-time high of nearly $20,000 to $3,200, a drop of more than 83%. That year, Wall Street analysts sneered, "Blockchain is a joke"; the SEC filed a large number of lawsuits; retail investors were liquidated and exited the market, and the forum was silent.

2021-2022: -77%, industry "black swan" explosions

In 2021, Bitcoin wrote a new myth: the price of a single coin exceeded US$69,000, and institutions, funds, countries, and retail investors flocked in.

But just one year later, BTC fell to $15,500. The collapse of Luna, the liquidation of Three Arrows Capital, the explosion of FTX...the successive "black swans" like dominoes destroyed the confidence of the entire crypto market. The Fear and Greed Index once fell to 6 (extreme fear range), and on-chain activity was close to freezing.

The above picture is from a report in the New York Times on May 12, 2022. It shows that the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted along with UST. Now we know that the reason behind the sharp drop in UST is actually due to Galaxy Digital's "contribution" to the increase in Luna shipments.

But once again, at the end of 2023, Bitcoin quietly rose back to $40,000; after the ETF was approved in 2024, it soared all the way to today's $90,000.

1.2 Where does the asymmetric opportunity of Bitcoin come from?

We have seen that Bitcoin has achieved amazing rebounds many times in history at moments of "seemingly catastrophe". So the question is - why is this happening? Why is it that this high-risk asset, which has been ridiculed by countless people as “pass the parcel”, has been able to rise again and again after collapse? More importantly, why can it provide such a highly asymmetric investment opportunity for patient and knowledgeable investors?

The answer lies in three core mechanisms:

Mechanism 1: Deep cycle + extreme emotions, creating pricing deviations

Bitcoin is the only free market in the world that is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. There is no circuit breaker mechanism, no market maker protection, and no Federal Reserve backstop. This means that it is more susceptible to amplifying human emotional fluctuations than any other asset.

• In a bull market, FOMO (fear of missing out) dominates the market, retail investors frantically chase the rise, narratives soar, and valuations are seriously overdrawn;

• In a bear market, FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) floods the entire network, the sounds of selling at losses are heard one after another, and prices are trampled into the dust.

This cycle of sentiment amplification causes Bitcoin to frequently enter a state where "prices seriously deviate from their true value." This is exactly where value investors look for asymmetric opportunities.

To sum it up in one sentence: the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. Bitcoin's asymmetric opportunities occur precisely at those moments when the weighing machine has not yet been turned on.

Mechanism 2: The price fluctuates greatly, but the probability of death is extremely low

If Bitcoin really "returns to zero at any time" as the media portrays it, then of course there is no point in investing in it. But the reality is that it "survives" every crisis and becomes stronger than the last one.

• In 2011, after the price collapsed to $2, the Bitcoin network continued to operate as usual and transactions continued as usual.

• After the collapse of Mt.Gox in 2014, new exchanges quickly filled the gap and the number of users continued to grow.

• After the FTX explosion in 2022, the Bitcoin blockchain still produced blocks stably every 10 minutes.

Bitcoin's underlying network has almost no history of downtime, and the system is much more robust than most people realize.

In other words, even if the price is cut in half again and again, as long as Bitcoin’s technical foundation and network effects remain, there is no real risk of it “returning to zero”. So we get a very attractive structure: the short-term downside is limited, but the long-term upside is open.

This is asymmetry.

Mechanism 3: Value anchoring exists but is ignored, leading to “oversold”

Many people believe that Bitcoin has no intrinsic value, so there is no bottom to its decline. This view ignores several key facts:

• Bitcoin is programmatically scarce (21 million pieces, halving mechanism);

• It has the world's most powerful POW network, with calculable costs;

• Its network effect is strong, with the number of users exceeding 50 million, and transaction volume and hash rate hitting new highs;

• Mainstream institutions and countries recognize its "reserve asset" attributes (ETFs, national legal tender, corporate balance sheets);

This is also the most controversial issue, that is, whether Bitcoin has intrinsic value, which will be elaborated on in detail later.

1.3 Will Bitcoin return to zero?

It is possible, but the probability is extremely low. The website records 430 instances of Bitcoin being declared dead.

However, there is a line of small words below the number of deaths announced that tells everyone. If you had bought $100 every time someone declared Bitcoin dead, you would have over $96.8 million now, see the chart below. You should know that Bitcoin's underlying system has been running stably for more than ten years and has almost never been interrupted. Regardless of the collapse of Mt.Gox, the collapse of Luna, or the explosion of FTX, its blockchain has always continued to produce one block of land every 10 minutes. Such technical resilience provides it with a strong survival bottom line.

Now you should understand that Bitcoin is not an "illogical speculation". On the contrary, the reason why its asymmetry is so prominent is that its long-term value logic is real but is often seriously underestimated by market sentiment.

This brings us to the next question we must explore - can Bitcoin, which has no cash flow, no board of directors, and no factory, really be considered a "value investment"?

2. Can Bitcoin also be used for value investment?

Bitcoin always rises and falls sharply, and people swing between extreme greed and extreme fear. Are such assets really suitable for “value investing”?

On one side is the Graham and Buffett-style “margin of safety” and “discounted cash flow”, and on the other side is a “digital commodity” that has no board of directors, no dividends, no profits, and even no corporate entity. In the traditional value investing framework, Bitcoin seems to have nowhere to fit.

But the key question is - how do you define "value"?

If we broaden our horizons from traditional financial reports and dividends, and return to the core essence of value investing -

buy at a price lower than the intrinsic value and hold until the value returns.

Then, Bitcoin may not only be suitable for value investment, but may even embody the original meaning of the word "value" more purely than many stocks.

Benjamin Graham, the founder of value investing, once said: The essence of investment is not what you buy, but whether the price you buy it is lower than its value. The picture above is an imaginary picture created by AI, in which Graham looks at Bitcoin with a puzzled look on his face.

In other words, value investing is not limited to stocks, companies or traditional assets. As long as something has intrinsic value and its market price is periodically lower than this value, it can become a target of value investment.

But this also leads to a more critical question: If we cannot use the traditional price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio to estimate the value of Bitcoin, then where does its "intrinsic value" come from?

Although Bitcoin does not have financial statements like a company, it is by no means nothing. It has a complete set of analyzable, modelable, and quantifiable value systems. Although these "value signals" are not concentrated in a quarterly report like stocks, they are equally real and even more stable.

Below, I will mainly analyze the source of Bitcoin's "intrinsic value" from the two dimensions of supply and demand.

2.1 Supply side: scarcity, hard-coded deflation model (Stock-to-Flow)

The most fundamental value pillar of Bitcoin is its verifiable scarcity.

• Total limit: 21 million, no additional issuance;

• Halving every four years: Each halving reduces the annual supply by 50%, and it is expected that all issuance will be completed in 2140;

• After the halving in 2024, the annual new supply of Bitcoin will drop to an inflation rate below 1%, and its scarcity will exceed that of gold.

The S2F model (inventory/annual supply) proposed by analyst PlanB has accurately captured the medium- and long-term upward trend of Bitcoin after halving many times - after the three rounds of halving in 2012, 2016, and 2020, prices have increased several times within 12-18 months, as shown in the first three blue arrows in the figure below.

• After the first halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin rose from about $12 to more than $1,000 in a year.

• After the second halving in 2016, the price soared from around $600 to nearly $20,000 in about 18 months.

• After the third halving in 2020, the price also rose from around US$8,000 to US$69,000 in about 18 months.

You also noticed that I added a big question mark on the fourth blue arrow. This is the fourth halving. Will the previous upward trend continue? My answer is yes, but the magnitude may be further reduced.

What you need to note is that the left vertical axis showing the Bitcoin price in the above figure is a logarithmic scale, and the height from 1 to 10 is the same as the height from 10 to 100. This helps us see the early trends of Bitcoin.

Let me focus on this model. The model draws on the valuation methods of precious metals such as gold and silver. Its core logic is:

• Stock: refers to the total amount of assets currently in existence.

• Flow: refers to the annual increase in supply.

• S2F Ratio = Inventory / Flow

The higher the S2F ratio of an asset, the smaller its annual new supply is relative to the existing stock, the scarcer the asset is, and theoretically the higher its value is.

Gold has an extremely high S2F ratio (around 60), which is one of the important foundations of its use as a store of value. Bitcoin’s S2F ratio continues to improve with each halving. For example, after the third halving in May 2020, Bitcoin’s S2F ratio increased to approximately 56, which is very close to the level of gold. After the fourth halving in April 2024, its S2F ratio doubled to over 100, making it surpass gold in terms of scarcity. See the coordinates to the right of the question mark in the picture above.

One ​​of the most popular pictures in the currency circle is called the Bitcoin S2F model fitting chart, as shown below. It is not only famous for its visual simplicity and intuitiveness, but also because the logic behind it once became one of the most powerful proofs of "Bitcoin's long-term price increase."

In the above picture, the horizontal axis is the natural logarithm of S2F, and the vertical axis is the natural logarithm of Bitcoin price. In this log-log space, we see an almost straight red regression line that crosses all halving cycles in Bitcoin’s history, showing an amazing fit.

This picture tries to tell everyone that every time Bitcoin enters a new halving cycle, the new output in circulation is "halved", the S2F ratio rises accordingly, and the long-term price predicted by the model also rises simultaneously. The model has accurately predicted the first three times, but it is still unknown whether it will be accurate for the fourth time.

However, any model has its limitations, and S2F is no exception. It focuses entirely on the supply side: halving, total amount cap, and mining speed, but completely ignores changes in demand. This was still true in the early days when there were fewer Bitcoin users and demand had not yet "taken shape". However, after entering 2020, the market structure, capital volume, and institutional participation have grown rapidly, and the power to determine prices has increasingly shifted to the demand side - that is, adoption, market expectations, macro liquidity, regulatory policies, and even social media sentiment.

Obviously, a single S2F model cannot convince you or me. We also need a demand-side model.

2.2 Demand side: network effect, Metcalfe's Law

If the S2F model locks the "supply gate" of Bitcoin, then the network effect is the "demand pump" that determines how high the water level can rise. The most intuitive measurement is the on-chain activity and the expansion rate of coin-holding users: as of the end of 2024, the number of non-zero balance addresses has exceeded 50 million, and in February this year, the number of daily active addresses returned to ≈ 910,000, setting a new high in nearly three months.

Using Metcalfe's Law to roughly calculate - network value ≈ k × N² - when the number of active users doubles, the theoretical network value can expand to four times the original value. This is the underlying driving force behind the repeated "step-by-step" increases in Bitcoin prices over the past decade. The picture above is also an imaginary picture synthesized by AI. Mr. Metcalfe is looking at Bitcoin with joy.

Three major indicators on the demand side

• Active addresses: measure the real usage popularity in a short period;

• Non-zero balance addresses: long-term penetration indicator; The compound growth rate in the past seven years is about 12%/year - even if the price is halved, the number of coin holders is still rising.

• Value-bearing layer: The Lightning Network channel capacity and the number of off-chain payments continue to hit new highs, providing a closed loop for "existing currency holdings → actual payments".

This "N² driven + network stickiness" demand model has two meanings:

• Positive cycle: more users → deeper transactions → richer ecology → higher value; This explains why prices will jump nonlinearly whenever ETFs, cross-border settlements or emerging market payments bring in incremental users.

• Negative cycle risk: If there is global regulatory pressure, technological substitution (such as CBDC, Layer-2 payment methods) or macro liquidity is exhausted, activity and new users may fall simultaneously, causing valuations to shrink along with N² - this is a "demand gap" scenario that S2F cannot capture.

Therefore, only by connecting the S2F on the supply side with the network effect on the demand side can a more complete valuation framework be formed: when S2F points to long-term scarcity and active addresses and non-zero balances still maintain an upward slope, the demand-supply mismatch will amplify the asymmetry; conversely, once the activity continues to decline, even if the scarcity remains unchanged, it may trigger a simultaneous decline in price and value.

In other words, scarcity prevents Bitcoin from depreciating, and network effects can make it appreciate in value.

It is particularly worth mentioning that Bitcoin was once regarded as a "geek's toy" or a "miniature bubble." But today, its value narrative has quietly switched.

Since 2020, MicroStrategy has included Bitcoin in the company's balance sheet and already owns 538,000 bitcoins, as shown in the figure above. I have given a detailed introduction to the transformation of strategy in the article "Bitcoin Dividends".

Subsequently, top global asset management institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity also launched Bitcoin spot ETFs, bringing in billions of dollars in incremental funds. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have begun offering BTC investment services to high-net-worth clients, and even countries like El Salvador have listed it as legal tender. These changes are not only an embrace at the capital level, but also an endorsement of "legitimacy" and "institutional consensus."

2.3 Summary

In the world of Bitcoin valuation, supply and demand are never isolated variables, but rather a “double helix” that constitutes asymmetric opportunities.

• On the one hand, the S2F model starts from programmatic deflation and uses mathematical formulas to describe the long-term price-pulling power of scarcity;

• On the other hand, the network effect is based on on-chain data and user growth, demonstrating the real demand basis of Bitcoin as a "digital network."

In such a structure, the mismatch between price and value becomes increasingly clear - this is exactly the moment that value investors are looking forward to: when sentiment is low and prices are lower than the comprehensive valuation model shows, the asymmetric window of opportunity quietly opens. This also brings up the question we really need to discuss: Is the essence of value investing to look for asymmetric opportunities that are underestimated by emotions and corrected by time?

3. The essence of value investing is to find asymmetry?

The core of value investing has never been just “buying cheap things”, but is based on a more fundamental logical basis: looking for asymmetric structures with limited risks and huge potential returns in the dislocation between price and value.

This is the essential difference between value investing and trend investing, momentum trading, and technical gaming.

Trend investment relies on market inertia, speculative trading bets on short-term fluctuations, and value investment is to calmly evaluate the long-term value of assets when market sentiment deviates extremely from rational judgment, and decisively buy when the price is significantly lower than the value, waiting for the market to return to rationality. The reason this approach works is that there is a naturally asymmetric structure behind it: the worst outcome you endure is a controllable loss, while the best outcome you obtain is often far beyond expectations.

If we carefully examine the logic of value investing, we will find that it is not a specific operating method, but a structural thinking based on probability and imbalance.

• The reason why investors need to analyze the "safety margin" is to assess the downside space in the worst case scenario;

• The reason why they need to study the "intrinsic value" is to clarify the possibility and space for the target price to return;

• And the reason why they need to "hold patiently" is because the returns of asymmetric structures often take time to realize.

All of this is not for the pursuit of perfect predictive ability, but to build a "betting structure" in a series of uncertainties - when you make the right judgment, the gain is far greater than the loss when you make the wrong judgment. This is the essence of asymmetric investment.

Many people misunderstand value investing as being conservative, slow, and low-volatility, but in fact it is just the opposite. True value investing does not mean "low return, low risk", it means using controllable risks in exchange for highly asymmetric return space. Whether they are shareholders who invested in Amazon early or long-termists who quietly bought Bitcoin during the bear market, they are essentially doing the same thing: when most people underestimate the future of an asset and the price is pushed to an extreme range due to emotions, policies or misunderstandings, they are quietly making arrangements.

From this perspective:

Value investing is not some old strategy of "buy cheap and hold on to dividends" from the past, but the common language of all investors who truly pursue an asymmetric return structure.

It emphasizes not only cognitive ability, but also emotional control, risk awareness and belief in time. It doesn't require you to be smarter than others, it only requires you to stay calm when others are crazy and dare to bet when others are running away.

Therefore, understanding the deep relationship between value investing and asymmetry means understanding why Bitcoin, although different in form from traditional assets, can be embraced by serious value investing methods. Its volatility is not an enemy but a gift; its panic is not a risk but a pricing error; its asymmetry is a rare asset revaluation opportunity in this era. And the real value investors are waiting for the next such opportunity and quietly making their moves in the deep and still waters.

4. How to use asymmetry to invest in Bitcoin?

After understanding the source of Bitcoin’s intrinsic value and realizing that market fluctuations will create opportunities where prices are lower than value, the next question is: As ordinary investors, how can we practice value investing in Bitcoin?

What needs to be emphasized here is that value investing is not about pursuing "bottom fishing", that is, trying to buy at the lowest price, which is an extremely difficult or even impossible task. The core of value investing is to start buying in batches and in a disciplined manner when the price enters the "value zone" that you judge to be obviously undervalued, and hold it patiently, waiting for the value to return and grow.

For highly volatile assets such as Bitcoin, the following are some simple and practical value investment strategies:

4.1 Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

This is the most basic and most suitable strategy for most people. DCA refers to investing a fixed amount of money to buy Bitcoin at fixed time intervals (such as weekly or monthly), regardless of whether the price is high or low at the time.

• Advantages:

• Spread out costs: Buy smaller quantities when prices are high and buy larger quantities when prices are low. In the long run, your average holding cost will be lowered, lower than the market average price during a continuous rise.

• Overcome emotions: DCA is a disciplined investment approach that can help you avoid the urge to chase highs and sell lows due to short-term market ups and downs. You just need to follow the plan without worrying about subjective judgment and timing.

• Simple and easy: does not require complex analysis and frequent operations, suitable for investors who do not have much time and energy to study the market.

Regarding DCA, I have explained it in detail in "Bitcoin: The Ultimate Safe-haven Plan for Long-termists". If you still have questions, I suggest you read it carefully.

4.2 Dynamic adjustment based on market sentiment indicators: Fear & Greed Index

Based on DCA, if you want to slightly improve the efficiency of your investment, you can introduce market sentiment indicators as an auxiliary judgment. Among them, the "Crypto Fear & Greed Index" is a widely watched indicator.

The index combines market volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment, market dominance, survey data and other factors to measure the overall sentiment of the current market with a value of 0-100:

• 0-25: Extreme Fear

• 25-45: Fear

• 45-55: Neutral

• 55-75: Greed

• 75-100: Extreme Greed

The reverse thinking of value investing tells us, "Be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy." Therefore, we can incorporate the Fear and Greed Index into the DCA strategy:

• Basic Fixed Investment: Keep the regular monthly/weekly fixed investment plan unchanged.

• Increase in fear: When the index enters the "extreme fear" range (for example, below 20 or 15), it means that market sentiment is extremely pessimistic and prices may be seriously undervalued. At this time, you can make an additional investment in addition to the regular investment.

• Be cautious/reduce positions when greedy (optional): When the index enters the "extreme greed" range (for example, above 80 or 85), it means that market sentiment is overheated and risks are accumulating. At this time, you can choose to suspend the regular investment, or even consider selling part of the profits in batches to lock in the profits.

4.3 Important Tips

Never invest more money than you can afford to lose. Bitcoin remains a high-risk asset and its price could drop to zero (although this possibility is decreasing as it develops, the theoretical risk always exists). Allocate assets reasonably, and the proportion of Bitcoin in your total portfolio should match your risk tolerance. However, Bitcoin is also the lowest-risk cryptocurrency, so it should dominate your total crypto holdings. My asset portfolio is – Bitcoin: Ethereum: Others = 5:3:2.

Using DCA or a dynamic DCA strategy combined with sentiment indicators is essentially practicing the core principles of value investing: acknowledging that the market cannot be predicted, taking advantage of the irrational market fluctuations, and accumulating assets in an area where prices may be below intrinsic value in a disciplined manner. Remember: investing should not be the most important thing in your life, and you don't need to lose sleep over it.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is not a gambling table for you to escape from reality, it is a footnote for you to re-understand reality.

In this world full of uncertainty, we often mistakenly believe that safety means stability, risk aversion, and staying away from volatility. But true security is never about avoiding risks, but about understanding and managing risks - and being able to see the cornerstone of value buried under the sand when everyone turns around and flees.

This is the true essence of value investing: looking for asymmetric structures created by cognition in the midst of emotional dislocation; quietly buying chips that have been forgotten by the market but will eventually return at the deepest bottom of the cycle.

Bitcoin, as a financial species that has scarcity written into its algorithm, evolves its value in the network, and is repeatedly reborn in panic, is the purest presentation of this asymmetry. Its price may never be stable, but its logic remains consistent: scarcity is the lower limit, network is the upper limit, volatility is opportunity, and time is leverage.

You can never accurately buy the bottom of Bitcoin, but you can go through one cycle after another and continue to buy value that is misunderstood by the market at a reasonable price. It's not because you have magical judgment, but because you have a higher-order way of thinking - you believe that the best bet is to put your chips on the side of time when others turn around and leave.

So please remember this sentence:

Those who bet at the deepest level of irrationality are often the most rational people; and time is the most faithful fulfiller of asymmetry.

This game will always belong to those who understand the order behind the fluctuations and see the logic behind the collapse. Because they know: the world does not reward emotions, the world rewards cognition. And cognition will eventually be proven by time.