Bankless: Will Robinhood and Coinbase go head-to-head next year?

Author: David Christopher, Source: Bankless, Translated by: Shaw Jinse Finance

The debate between Coinbase and Robinhood has been discussed by many observers—we are no exception.

But Coinbase's system update on December 17th gives us reason to re-examine it more deeply. The company announced 24/5 commission-free stock and ETF trading, a prediction market natively integrated with Kalshi, and a DEX aggregator with instant access to millions of tokens—clearly an effort to become an all-around application that can rival Robinhood.

These announcements clarify Coinbase's future direction and allow us to more comprehensively compare it with Robinhood. Their goal is now clear: to become a one-stop platform for users to manage all aspects of their financial lives. By controlling users' account balances, they also control users' behavior.

However, their approaches to building super apps reveal drastically different philosophies—2026 will test which has a more solid foundation. Robinhood is building a financial super app in a traditional way—by continuously adding products until users can manage their entire financial life on a single platform. In addition to stock, options, and cryptocurrency trading, Robinhood offers a range of products to its 3.9 million Gold members, making it function like a new type of bank. This subscription service has grown 77% year-over-year and includes a 3% cashback credit card, 3.25% cash interest, and 3% matching funds for an Individual Retirement Account (IRA). Users' salaries, savings, investments, and daily spending are all centralized on a single interface—a data advantage that traditional brokerages cannot match. This positioning is particularly apt considering its user base—of Robinhood's 26.9 million registered users, 75% are under 44 years old, a highly mobile-dependent and financially conscious demographic. Analysts like Omar Kanji of Dragonfly believe this user group will help Robinhood become a major beneficiary of the projected $10 trillion wealth transfer over the next decade, as older generations pass on their assets to younger generations. These heirs are likely to integrate their assets into platforms they use daily—and Robinhood is committed to making it easy and convenient for users. Beyond its new banking features, Robinhood's revenue streams have diversified significantly. Options trading remains its primary revenue source. Cryptocurrencies contribute 21% of total revenue. Net interest income accounts for 35% of total revenue. And of course, its annual revenue from Kalshi's prediction market has reached $100 million. The data also confirms this: transaction revenue increased by 129% year-over-year, primarily driven by cryptocurrencies. Net profit in the third quarter hit a record high of $556 million, a 271% year-over-year increase. Operating expenses have remained stable since September 2022. Coinbase is also building a super app—but with a distinctly cryptocurrency-native character, and behind it lies a deeper ambition. On the front end, Coinbase aims to be a one-stop platform for users to manage their on-chain and off-chain financial lives, although currently it remains primarily on-chain. The December system update clarified this: commission-free 24/5 trading of stocks and ETFs, prediction markets through Kalshi, and ongoing on-chain integrations giving users instant access to millions of tokens. In addition, features like direct deposits, high-yield savings through USDC lending rates, Bitcoin-collateralized borrowing up to $5 million (Ethereum-collateralized borrowing up to $1 million), and earning cryptocurrency rewards through debit card spending—these features are gradually being refined to make it a super app. But Coinbase's goal isn't just to serve its own users. Its grander vision seems to be to **make all its products plug-and-play infrastructure, supporting all on-chain users**. The core argument here is that traditional financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley won't build their own cryptocurrency infrastructure. They'll choose to outsource to Coinbase because Coinbase is cheaper, they lack the relevant technical expertise, and Coinbase has 13 years of experience in security assurance. Currently, over 200 institutions are using Coinbase's Crypto as a Service (CFS) platform—meaning users can conduct cryptocurrency transactions at the front end of traditional banks, while Coinbase handles all back-end operations. This emphasis on infrastructure permeates the entire business. Coinbase holds Bitcoin and Ethereum for most major spot ETFs, giving it a near-monopoly in cryptocurrency custody. They allow institutions to issue their own stablecoins using Coinbase's infrastructure. The acquisition of Echo brought Coinbase's fundraising and token issuance businesses in-house. The acquisition of Deribit gave it access to approximately 90% of Bitcoin options open interest. The revenue structure reflects this dual strategy. Third-quarter revenue reached $1.8 billion, with subscription and service revenue hitting a quarterly high of $747 million (41% of total revenue). Stablecoin revenue from the USDC partnership contributed $354.7 million, a 44% year-over-year increase. Staking revenue was $185 million. Custody fee revenue was approximately $143 million, primarily driven by ETF inflows, with assets under custody exceeding $300 billion, a record high. Robinhood's grand vision is to become the platform of choice for handling everything related to personal finance, while Coinbase undertakes two tasks simultaneously: building the best cryptocurrency super app for its users and becoming the backend supporting all other cryptocurrency products. Both companies see cryptocurrency at the heart of their super-application vision, but their strategies reflect their respective origins. Robinhood views cryptocurrency as an alternative asset class alongside stocks and options. It's a revenue driver that can seamlessly integrate into its existing product portfolio. The acquisition of Bitstamp ($200 million) brought it global licenses and institutional infrastructure. Tokenized stocks—currently around 800 in the EU, including private companies like OpenAI and SpaceX—further expand its product line. The real test lies in the success of Robinhood Chain, which promises to diversify the functionality of many tokenized stocks (e.g., for lending), though the scope of decentralized finance (DeFi) or other on-chain activities the chain will support remains unclear. Beyond this, Robinhood faces some more immediate limitations, such as token selection. In the US, the platform offers users fewer than 50 tokens, while Coinbase indirectly offers a virtually unlimited selection through Jupiter and Base, and directly supports over 200 tokens. Coinbase's cryptocurrency strategy is clearly distinct, offering services ranging from its own L2 network to the numerous products mentioned above. It has become the benchmark for "crypto-exclusive" services, to the point that it now appears to be transforming, focusing on building infrastructure for other companies. For example, x402 aims to become the industry standard for agent-to-agent (A2A) payments; Coinbase has also announced a "stablecoin-as-a-service" platform for businesses to create whitelisted stablecoins, with Coinbase handling all the technical details. From issuance and trading to custody, Coinbase is involved in every stage of the asset lifecycle. What will 2026 hold? Both roadmaps are ambitious, and there is increasing overlap. In December 2025, Coinbase underwent a system update, leveraging tokenization technology to extend stock and ETF trading hours beyond traditional trading hours, and announced the launch of perpetual stock contracts next year, thus making a strong entry into Robinhood's territory. Native integration with Kalshi brings prediction markets. In addition, Coinbase launched Coinbase Business, an all-in-one enterprise business operations platform based on cryptocurrency, and Coinbase Tokenize, an end-to-end tokenization platform for institutions. Robinhood's 2026 plans will further deepen its crypto infrastructure development. Tokenized stocks will be available for 24/7 trading via Bitstamp in early 2026, with withdrawals and cross-DeFi platform integration by the end of 2026. Regarding prediction markets, Robinhood is transitioning from a distribution partner to launching its own market. The platform hopes to offer cryptocurrency staking services after obtaining regulatory approval. Furthermore, Robinhood plans to "socialize" transactions through its upcoming Robinhood Social platform. This platform allows users to post transaction information, as well as actual transactions and profit/loss details. There's also Robinhood Chain. The challenge for Robinhood Chain lies in building a developer ecosystem—while Base has already made significant progress in this area. A native cryptocurrency culture is difficult to create out of thin air. In summary, perhaps "COIN and HOOD" is a more accurate description than "COIN vs. HOOD." These two companies operate in different fields, are related, but not entirely overlapping. Robinhood is both a wealth transfer platform targeting a younger generation and a typical example of a "super app." 75% of its users are under 44 years old, and as a full-stack new type of bank, Robinhood is committed to custodying assets on its platform, making it an emerging hub integrating deposits, consumption, investment, and speculation. Coinbase represents technological change. Its bet is that the global economy will shift on-chain, and Coinbase will become the infrastructure layer supporting everything else—from ETF custody and stablecoin backends to cryptocurrency-as-a-service for traditional banks. Both present risks. Robinhood's generous Gold rewards (3% matching yield, 3% cash back, 3.25% cash interest) are costly and have shown vulnerability relative to interest rate cuts—which were recently as high as 4% to 5% and directly pegged to the Federal Reserve's rates. The adoption of tokenization depends on the decisions of the issuers, decisions Robinhood cannot control. For Coinbase, user growth remains a significant risk, with its monthly active users stagnating since 2021. And both companies' stocks are likely to be highly priced. Over the past few years, they have performed strongly—COIN's stock price has increased approximately sevenfold, and HOOD's approximately fifteenfold, as of this writing. Although their stock prices have recently retreated from their all-time highs, their valuations remain high after such astonishing gains. This should be taken into account. Ultimately, while both companies are building financial super apps and gradually encroaching on each other's territory in the process, their visions serve different purposes. Robinhood is building an all-in-one financial platform—allowing users to manage banking, spending, trading, and investing on a single platform, eliminating the need to go anywhere else. Coinbase is building infrastructure to get everyone on-chain—it has created a crypto super app for its own users, but more importantly, it provides backend support for institutions, fintech companies, and traditional banks entering the cryptocurrency space. One company strives to be your financial home, while another strives to be the underlying architecture of that home. Both have the potential to succeed.