Behind the election: a showdown between 200 American investors

Source: Undercurrent Waves

In the early morning of November 6, local time, Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election.

This can even be said to be the most stalemate presidential election in history, with polls once fixed at 49% to 49%. Therefore, this is a bet that will be decided at the last moment.

On both ends of the bet are not only the two candidates, but also the hundreds of investors behind them. At the moment the result is revealed, there are bound to be winners and losers.

But this is exactly what VCs who have been dealing with wins and losses for decades are good at.

After the dust settled, we unraveled another investment dark line. The operations of Silicon Valley VCs in this political gamble often coincide with their usual investment style.

Investors who support Trump

Behind Trump stand a number of top Silicon Valley VCs, most of whom are close to cryptocurrency and AI in their investment strategies. The regulatory policies of the Biden/Democratic government on the cryptocurrency field are the reason why many of them defected, and some even say that this is a "revenge of the cryptocurrency circle with money."

Supporting Trump used to be something that would "make people lose friends" and "be demonized by the media," but after more and more Silicon Valley bigwigs have left, this is no longer a problem.

> Two partners of A16Z: I believe he is more beneficial to technology and startups

（Photo source: A16Z Youtube_Trump Vs. Biden: Tech Policy）

After the bullet grazed Trump’s right ear, Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, the two founders of A16Z, one of the most famous venture capital firms in Silicon Valley, Horowitz), decided to vote for Trump.

They announced in their podcast that they would invest millions of dollars to support the election, and explained the reasons behind it: the two believed that Trump's policies were more conducive to the development of technology and start-ups than Biden and the Democratic government's regulatory strategies. They particularly emphasized emerging technology fields such as blockchain, cryptocurrency and AI.

In fact, until the end of the 2010s, A16Z tried its best to keep its distance from politics, but as many of its invested companies, including Lyft, Airbnb, etc., clashed with government regulations, the two founders realized that they actually had no choice. This strong feeling occurred especially after A16Z entered the cryptocurrency field in 2019.

Also voting for Trump because of cryptocurrency is Cameron Winklevoss, the founder of Gemini. He once publicly stated: "Anyone who supports Bitcoin, cryptocurrency and business should vote for Trump. He will end the Biden administration's suppression of cryptocurrency."

Another reason for A16Z's change of attitude may be Harris's plan to tax the rich. According to the infomation, the Horowitzes have been deeply affected by the "anti-rich" sentiment on social networks during the COVID period, so they moved to a heavily guarded closed community.

Later, Horowitz said frustratedly on the podcast: "Rich people are scolded just because they donate their money to charity instead of paying more taxes."

> Peter Thiel: Although he is annoying, I need him

However, after Trump took office, Peter Thiel publicly expressed his disappointment with him. Until this summer, Peter Thiel changed his attitude again, firmly stating that "even if someone points a gun at him, he will vote for Trump", and also stated that he would not support him financially.

Max, Peter Thiel's biographer and perhaps the person who knows him best in the world, interpreted this changing position:

If you look back at the way Peter Thiel supports Trump, you will find that he is not endorsing him, but expressing that "although he is annoying, we need him overall." Peter Thiel's engagement with Trump was smart. As an early investor in Trump, he was able to take his influence and power to a new level and then exit early - cashing out before Trump's presidency collapsed due to scandal.

（Photo source: IC photo）

As a former investor, Vance’s investment resume is not dazzling, but luck was on his side in the end.

In 2016, when the book "Hillbilly Elegy" that later made him famous was about to be published, Vance also got an opportunity to work at the venture capital company Mithril, whose boss was Peter Thiel.

Peter Thiel was Vance's role model in college. Because of this, Vance later founded Narya Capital and invested in a series of conservative technology companies. The only one worth mentioning was Youtube, which he invested in with Peter Thiel - Rumble, which went public in 2022.

Later, Vance turned to politics. Peter Thiel donated $15 million to support Vance's campaign. Peter Thiel even introduced Vance to Trump at Mar-a-Lago, and eventually helped Vance become his running mate.

Max believes that although the two are not in a relationship of manipulator and puppet, Thiel is more like recognizing Vance's unique advantages and becoming his Series A investor in the early stage.

(Source: Forbes magazine cover)

Bill Ackman, known as the man who makes the most money on Wall Street and one of the prototypes of the TV series "Billions", became famous for shorting MBIA. Later, he bet on the biggest black swan of the global economy, the new crown epidemic, and made a huge profit of 4 billion US dollars.

His investment criterion is: "Make bold decisions that no one believes in when investing."

Ackman, who had donated at least $1 million to the Democratic Party, announced on X on the day of Trump's shooting that he had switched to supporting Trump.

A few months later, he posted a long article to explain in detail the reasons for his choice. Interestingly, although Trump was mentioned in the title, Ackman wrote 33 articles in the text, all of which were about the crimes of the Democratic Party/Biden administration.

When Ackman made his choice, he was not as radical and non-consensus as his investment moves, but rather coincided with the change in mentality of most venture capitalists in Silicon Valley: they don't like Trump, but they hate the Biden administration more.

As Palanti co-founder Joe Lonsdale expressed after donating $1 million to Trump: Silicon Valley has too many reasons to oppose the Biden administration, such as taxing unrealized capital gains, slowing down transactions, and harming the interests of start-ups.

Maguire is a partner of Sequoia Capital (USA) and a former financier of the Democratic Party. In 2016, he was “terrified by Trump” and decided to support Hillary. But in May this year, after Trump was convicted of collusion with Russia, Maguire announced a donation of $300,000 to Trump.

He then tweeted: This timing is by no means a coincidence. It is a decision he made at the risk of "losing friends" and "being demonized by the media."

Sequoia Capital also supports Trump from Doug Lyon, the second-generation head of Sequoia Capital, who announced his retirement in 2022.

It is worth mentioning that Michael Moritz, another partner of Sequoia Capital, is a supporter of Harris/the Democratic Party.

（Photo source: Getty Images）

Stephen A. Schwarzman and Trump have known each other for more than 40 years. The New York Times once reported that the person Trump most often turns to in the business world is Blackstone, and "Stephen A. Schwarzman is always first on any list."

Although in 2020, a week after Trump lost to Biden, Schwarzman issued a statement announcing his support for the Biden administration. But after this year's midterm elections, Blackstone still revealed the news of its support for Trump to the media in a high-profile manner. In the letter, Schwarzman said that the sharp rise in anti-Semitism was what he was most worried about.

There are also two Jewish hedge fund founders standing behind Trump, Nelson Peltz and John Paulson. The former's daughter married Beckham's eldest son, and the latter made a huge profit of $4 billion by betting on the collapse of subprime mortgages.

Investors supporting Harris

> Mark Cuban: The man who can create the most momentum

（Photo source: IC photo）

Mark Cuban is one of the most well-known investors in the United States, spanning multiple fields. He invested in Broadbast in his early years and later bought the Dallas Mavericks of the NBA. In addition, he also starred in "Sharknado 3".

He created a donation group for Harris with the participation of 100 venture capitalists, including investors Chris Sacca, Katie Stanton of Moxxie Ventures, Eva Ho of Fika Ventures, and Rebecca Kaden of Union Square Ventures.

These venture capitalists said in a public petition: "Every day we are looking for, investing and supporting entrepreneurs who are building the future... We also believe that democracy is the backbone of our country."

But Mark Cuban, who is worth 44 billion yuan, does not seem to have donated personally.

(Source: CNN)

Hoffman is a famous member of the "PayPal Gang". As an early COO of PayPal, he founded LinkedIn after operating the company and selling it to eBay together with Peter Thiel. After retiring, he became a venture capitalist. Now he is worth $3 billion and is one of the most influential venture capitalists in Silicon Valley.

Hoffman and Netflix founder Hastings are the two biggest sponsors of Harris, each donating $7 million.

Hoffman only made one request, which is to remove the current Chairman of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), Lina Khan: "Antitrust is no problem, declaring war on companies is another matter."

The FTC is the biggest headache for Silicon Valley technology giants today. At the beginning of this year, the FTC launched an investigation into Microsoft's investment in OpenAI, believing that it blocked innovation in the field of AI. The FTC is also considering incorporating the recently popular AI trend into the investigation and plans to abolish non-compete agreements across the United States.

（Photo source: IC photo）

In addition to donations, the Soros father and son also quickly acquired the bankrupt reorganized Audacy company and its 227 radio stations to help Harris build momentum in public opinion. In this regard, Musk, Trump's biggest "sponsor", also sarcastically said on X that "Harris is Soros's next puppet".

Maintaining one's own business empire is the core purpose of every businessman who chooses to participate in this political game. It is not secret, but Soros, who has always been known as a "financial vulture", acts in a bold and open manner, which inevitably attracts attention.

Soros has a total of five short-selling operations against other countries' currencies: sniping the British pound, "beating the Bank of England", and making a net profit of US$650 million. Shorting the Thai baht, as well as a series of emerging economic powers such as Indonesia and Malaysia.

But in the huge battlefield of the Asian financial crisis, Soros was truly fighting against several countries alone, but in the end he fell on his wrong prediction of the political situation in Hong Kong.

It is difficult to say whether this bet on Harris is another Waterloo for Soros.

（Photo source: Wikipedia）

He has the same Indian background as Harris, and he publicly expressed his support for Harris after Biden decided to withdraw from the election. He wrote on X: "It is time for all the 'non-MAGA' people to unite and support Harris to defeat Trump, save our democracy, reject bad values, reject the 2025 plan and the dictatorship that Trump loves."