Biden's election probability hits a new record low at 9%, BTC's potential bottom may be coming

The ETF Store President Nate Geraci released a document on the X platform showing that the US SEC has confirmed receipt of the 19b-4 application for Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF , this product will hold both spot BTC and ETH.

▌The US judge said that the cryptocurrencies OHM and Klima are "commodities" in the Jafia LLC fraud case

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced today that Judge Mary Rowland of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois issued an order in the Jafia LLC fraud case. In a summary judgment, a judge ordered Oregon's Sam Ikkurty and his company, Jafia LLC, among others, to pay more than $120 million in partial restitution to victims of what the agency called a "Ponzi scheme."  

It is worth noting that Judge Rowland also stated that “the order not only finds that Bitcoin and Ethereum commodities fall within the jurisdiction of the CFTC, but also that OHM and Klima These two virtual currencies qualify as commodities,” noting that these virtual currencies fall into the same category as Bitcoin, involving regulated futures trading. OHM and Klima are both smaller cryptocurrencies compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, the determination of which assets are securities (governed by the SEC) or commodities (governed by the CFTC) has been controversial.

▌US Congressman Cynthia Lummis: The United States will become the country of Bitcoin

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis said that the United States will become the country of Bitcoin.

▌German MPs urge German government to stop selling Bitcoin

German parliamentarian Joana Cotar strongly criticized the government's decision to sell $195 million worth of Bitcoin, believing that the move will increase market volatility and may have a long-term negative impact on the stability of the cryptocurrency market. The bitcoins came from an investigation into the illegal website Movie2k.to.  

Cotar said on Twitter that the German government should reconsider this strategy and discuss Bitcoin as a strategic reserve currency with the United States. She invited officials to attend a “National Bitcoin Strategy” lecture on October 17, presented by Bitcoin strategist Samson Mow, to discuss how to use Bitcoin to strengthen the national economy.

▌Korea FSS’s newly launched exchange monitoring system will promote market stability

This move will be implemented simultaneously with the Virtual Asset User Protection Act, the first regulatory framework for cryptocurrency investor protection, on July 19. At the same time, the Digital Asset Exchange Alliance (DAXA) and 20 local exchanges released the "Best Practice Guidelines for Supporting Digital Asset Trading", aiming to provide a more relaxed review of assets that have been compliantly traded in overseas markets for more than two years. plan.  

These measures show South Korea's positive attitude in cryptocurrency regulation and is committed to improving market stability, protecting investors, and combating financial crimes.

Blockchain Application

▌< /strong>Hong Kong securities industry: Hope to issue related derivatives for cryptocurrency spot ETFs and launch related leveraged options

Golden Financial Report, The Hong Kong securities industry hopes to issue related derivatives for cryptocurrency spot ETFs. Since cryptocurrency spot ETFs have been officially listed, brokerages can apply to regulatory agencies to issue derivatives, such as launching related options with higher leverage, etc. This will greatly enhance Hong Kong’s Regarding the attractiveness of the virtual asset market, it can be said that after the launch of cryptocurrency spot ETFs, it not only attracted investors who like to invest in physical cryptocurrencies, but also opened up more development opportunities for securities companies. Xie Mingguang, a senior securities industry insider, pointed out that cryptocurrency spot ETFs are more confident in Hong Kong’s development prospects.

▌S&P Global Ratings joins Singapore's "Guardian Project" to promote digital transformation of financial markets

S&P Global Ratings announced that it has joined Singapore’s “Project Guardian” to explore tokenization on public blockchains. The initiative is led by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and brings together 18 financial institutions and regulators. S&P will focus on developing digital asset analysis frameworks and evaluations in the fixed income sector. Several financial institutions are conducting experiments related to fixed income, reflecting the drive towards digital transformation in financial markets.

▌Wuxi City’s “Taihu Chain” blockchain technology platform realizes functions such as “one certificate for universal use”

Golden Finance reported that Wuxi City held the "Wuxi on the Chain" blockchain innovation application results exhibition to comprehensively demonstrate Wuxi City's progress in creating a national blockchain in the past two years. The positive results achieved during the comprehensive pilot city process of chain innovation application. The results of promoting blockchain development around "Taihu Chain" are clear at a glance. The achievement exhibition covers key contents such as popular science knowledge, infrastructure, industrial development, social governance, public services, innovation ecology, and future prospects, and displays representative application scenario cases involving more than 20 industries. The "Taihu Chain" management service platform is a core project in the national blockchain innovative application pilot work. Its biggest highlight is the establishment of a city-level blockchain technology public service capability infrastructure platform, effectively realizing "one certificate for universal use" of electronic licenses. "One network unified management" functions such as data lineage management, seamless supervision of state-owned assets, and full-process traceability of people-benefiting funds.

▌Ethereum DApp transaction volume surges 83%, but mainly driven by a single application

The Ethereum network’s decentralized application (DApp) transaction volume recently surged 83%, but 59.5% of that came from a single application, Balancer. Although overall transaction volume increased, the number of active Ethereum users decreased by 8% and the total value locked (TVL) also fell by 17.5%.  

This increase is inconsistent with trends in other parts of the crypto market, and excluding Balancer’s contribution, Ethereum’s transaction volume actually fell by 5%. This anomaly prompts the need for further analysis to understand the true demand and potential manipulation behind the increase in trading volume.

▌Web3 users hit a record high of 10 million in the second quarter

According to the latest report from blockchain analysis platform DappRadar, the number of daily active unique wallets (dUAW) for Web3 applications reached a record 10 million in the second quarter, an increase from the first quarter. 40%. The report pointed out that user growth in the social and blockchain gaming fields is particularly significant, and the non-fungible token (NFT) market transaction volume reached US$4 billion, but the total locked value (TVL) of decentralized financial applications (DeFi) But it dropped 4%. DappRadar warned that growth could be affected by temporary airdrop activity, stressing the importance of delivering a quality user experience and a robust development roadmap.

▌The National Blockchain Center takes the lead in building a new model for sharing artificial intelligence corpus

Reporters learned from the National Blockchain Center on July 1: Recently, the National Key Laboratory of Xinhua News Agency, People's Daily Online, Documentation and Information Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing Radio and Television, Higher Education The publishing house, Capital Library, Central Audio-visual Education Center Press, Wanfang Data, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and other key corpus data units announced that they will join forces with the National Blockchain Technology Innovation Center to jointly establish a trusted and secure circulation ecosystem for high-value corpus. Using cutting-edge information technologies such as blockchain and privacy computing, the nationwide large model corpus resources will form a sustainable and self-growing data supply ecosystem with privacy security protection and value-added circulation incentives, empowering the field of artificial intelligence large models to accelerate progress. Quality development.

▌Fantom’s third Sonic governance proposal passed

Fantom Foundation announced on the Over the next six years, the Sonic Foundation will allocate a portion of tokens as operating capital for Sonic Labs to manage network growth among dApps, BD partnerships, and a growing community of existing and new users.

Cryptocurrency

▌Spot Bitcoin ETFs still received $790 million in net inflows in June even as Bitcoin fell

In June, even as Bitcoin The price fell 7%, and the spot Bitcoin ETF still received $790 million in net inflows. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continues to be the largest Bitcoin fund with over $1 billion in inflows, offsetting huge outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). In contrast, when the price of Bitcoin fell by 15% in April, spot funds overall experienced massive outflows.  

Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that the holding capacity of the baby boomers is stronger than expected. June’s inflows benefited in part from expectations for the spot Ethereum ETF. Regulators and potential issuers are working to gain approval, and it is expected that the ETFs may be listed this month, which shows that regulators are gradually accepting the cryptocurrency industry as part of the financial system.

▌13 of the top 25 U.S. hedge funds already hold Bitcoin ETF exposure

Data from investment company River shows that as of the end of the first quarter of 2024, 13 of the top 25 hedge funds in the United States have Bitcoin ETF exposure. Notable among them is Millennium Management, which holds 27,263 BTC worth $1.69 billion, which is approximately 2.5% of its total assets under management (worth $67.7 billion).  

Other significant players include Schonfeld Strategic Advisors (holding 6,734 BTC) and Point72 Asset Management (holding 1,089 BTC). In contrast, some top hedge funds such as Bridgewater Associates, AQR Capital Management and Balyasny Asset Management have not invested in Bitcoin ETFs.

▌Bloomberg ETF Analyst: Bitwise submits revised S-1 form, spot Ethereum ETF may be launched Recently listed

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart posted on the X platform that he saw Bitwise Invest submitting another submission for its Ethereum ETF The revised S-1 form is expected to be filed by more other issuers during the remainder of the week, and we believe that the spot Ethereum ETF product may become available late next week or the week of July 15.  

Eric Balchunas, another Bloomberg analyst, commented: "No one really knows why the SEC is taking so long to process these forms, considering With so few reviews, the listing should be coming soon, but maybe some "problem" publisher is slowing things down, or it's just summer laziness/people on vacation, not sure. That being said, all signs point to the listing being here. "More details will be revealed next week."

▌DeFi tokens fell 10%-20% this week, with Pendle leading the decline

This week, the decentralized finance (DeFi) market experienced significant fluctuations. Pendle's governance token fell by 20%, attracting market attention. The market fluctuates greatly, so please control your risks.  

The value of locked assets (TVL) of the Pendle protocol suddenly dropped by US$3 billion, and many users chose to withdraw funds after the expiration in June rather than continue . Tokens of major DeFi platforms such as Aave (AAVE) and Lido (LDO) also fell by 10%-15% simultaneously.  

In addition, a large investor transferred millions of dollars of tokens to the Binance exchange for sale, exacerbating panic and liquidity in the market Variety. Mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) also performed poorly, further exacerbating the instability in the DeFi market.

▌Telegram CEO: Hamster Kombat will issue tokens on the TON blockchain

Telegram CEO Patel Du Rove posted on his personal channel that Hamster Kombat has become the latest Internet phenomenon, with 239 million people registering in just 3 months. A Telegram mini-app reached 100 million monthly active users in 73 days, with 4-5 million new users added every day, making it the fastest-growing digital service in the world. Hamster Kombat plans to issue its token on the TON blockchain, Bring the advantages of blockchain to hundreds of millions of users.

▌The transfer volume of short-term Bitcoin holders has dropped significantly, indicating market stability

According to Glassnode data, since the 2024 halving, short-term Bitcoin holders have significantly reduced the amount of transfers they make to exchanges when they lose money. This transfer volume peaked at 90,000 BTC in early 2024, but stabilized below 30,000 BTC after the April halving.  

Historical data shows that short-term Bitcoin holders tend to increase transfer activity during major price declines, reflecting panic selling. This trend was particularly evident during the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash.  

However, after the 2024 halving, the market showed greater stability and investor confidence, and panic transfers decreased. Still, it’s important to monitor transfer volume, as its peaks often signal significant price movements and could be a potential indicator of changes in market sentiment.

▌9,708 ETH transferred from unknown wallet to Coinbase

Golden Finance reported that according to Whale Alert monitoring, 9,708 ETH ($33,177,383) was transferred from an unknown wallet to Coinbase at around 6:03 Beijing time.

Seven employees of Paraguay’s National Electricity Authority were accused of direct involvement in establishing Illegal Bitcoin Mining Farm

Golden Finance reports that employees of Paraguay’s National Electricity Authority (ANDE) are accused of being directly involved in establishing illegal Bitcoin in Paraguay Mining site. Seven engineers employed by the country’s National Electricity Authority (ANDE) will be involved in organizing illegal connections to provide electricity to Bitcoin operations in Paraguay. Felix Sosa, director of the National Electric Power Administration, clarified that the agency's internal audit department is conducting a verification and organizational investigation into the organization. All relevant information will be forwarded to the State Attorney's Office for further investigation. However, Sosa said that employees of the national power company stopped performing electrical connections some time ago and instead delegated this function to third-party contractors. ANDE has been fighting illegal Bitcoin mining connections since December, having disconnected more than 70 farms that draw unmetered power directly from the grid.

▌The Ethereum network destroyed a total of 4,336,609.06 ETH

Golden Finance reported that according to Ultrasound data, so far, a total of 4,336,609.06 ETH have been destroyed on the Ethereum network. Note: Since the introduction of EIP-1559 in the Ethereum London upgrade, the Ethereum network will dynamically adjust the BaseFee of each transaction based on transaction requirements and block size, and this part of the fee will be burned directly.

Important Economic Trends

▌Strategist: Inflation and employment pave the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September

Golden Financial Report, Chief Global Strategist of Principal Asset Management Seema Shah said: Friday's PCE data was in line with expectations, which is a relief, and the Fed is certainly happy to see this situation. However, the policy path is uncertain. A further deceleration in inflation, coupled with more evidence of a softening job market, would pave the way for a first rate cut in September.

▌ECB Governing Council: The European Central Bank may cut interest rates twice more this year

ECB Governing Council member Simkus said the assumption that the ECB will cut interest rates two more times in 2024 may prove to be correct if the economy develops as officials predict. . He said in an interview: "If the data develops as expected, the expectation of two more interest rate cuts this year is consistent with my own thinking." He said officials should be ready to take action at any meeting, not just when proposing new measures. The quarterly meeting of economic forecasts should be able to take action if it is agreed at other meetings that a rate cut is necessary. He also said: "I think the reason for cutting interest rates in July no longer exists."

▌ECB Governing Council Stunaras: It seems reasonable to cut interest rates twice more this year

Stunaras, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, said it would be reasonable to cut interest rates again this year Two seems reasonable; recent data strengthens the case for further rate cuts; even with two more cuts, central bank rates remain at restrictive levels; services inflation should not be over-interpreted.

▌"Fed's mouthpiece": Fed officials signaled no rush to cut interest rates

"Fed spokesman" Nick Timiraos said that as rising inflation made Fed officials lack sufficient confidence to cut interest rates, some policymakers called for close attention at last month's meeting that the labor market may weaken faster than expected. signs. Minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that "several participants said that monetary policy should stand ready to respond to unexpected economic weakness." Officials also cited several economic developments, including slower wage growth, reduced corporate pricing power and consumer uncertainty. Sensitivity to price increases has increased to support their expectations that inflation will continue to fall in the coming year. Minutes of the meeting showed officials were broadly satisfied with their wait-and-see stance on interest rate changes and highlighted a range of views that could prompt the Fed to raise or lower interest rates. Combined with recent public statements from Fed officials, the minutes suggested they were unlikely to cut rates at their meeting later this month.

Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and not as actual investment advice. Please establish a correct investment philosophy and be sure to increase your risk awareness.