Bitcoin bears give three reasons why the bull market is over.

Author: Nancy Lubale Source: cointelegraph Translation: Shan Ouba, Jinse Finance

The Bitcoin MACD indicator has shown a bearish crossover, and a certain amount of time has passed since the last halving. Does this mean the 2025 Bitcoin bull market has ended? Or is the situation different this time?

Key Points

• On the Bitcoin weekly chart (three-week cycle), a bearish MACD crossover and a bearish engulfing pattern have appeared simultaneously, releasing a cycle top signal.

• Market analysts point out that 558 days have passed since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, a point that suggests the top of the Bitcoin bull market cycle is approaching.

• Market analysts point out that 558 days have passed since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, a point that suggests the top of the Bitcoin bull market cycle is approaching.

• Other analysts believe that Bitcoin's price still has room to rise, and the target price of $180,000 is still possible.

Bitcoin's price fell 3% on Thursday, 13% lower than the all-time high of $126,000 reached on October 6. Some traders believe that this high may have marked the top of Bitcoin's current cycle.

Bitcoin's technical indicators suggest a "top has appeared."

A cryptocurrency analyst stated that Bitcoin's price action appears to have confirmed a "MACD bearish crossover," which, combined with historical trends, could signify the end of the Bitcoin bull market.

Bitcoin's technical indicators suggest a "top has appeared."

A cryptocurrency analyst stated that Bitcoin's price action appears to have confirmed a "MACD bearish crossover," which, combined with historical trends, could mean the end of the Bitcoin bull market.

Analyst Jesse Olson posted on the X platform on Wednesday, stating, "A bearish MACD crossover is about to form on the three-week Bitcoin chart," adding, "The histogram also shows a long-term bearish divergence." As shown in the chart below, the bearish crossover pattern is confirmed when the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD, blue curve)—a technical indicator traders use to identify trend changes and momentum shifts—breaks below the signal line (orange curve). It's worth noting that the last two times the MACD issued such a bearish signal, it occurred at the peak of the 2017 and 2021 bull market cycles, both indicating a peak in Bitcoin's price. A bearish engulfing pattern also appeared on the same three-week chart, similar to patterns observed at the peaks of the 2017 and 2021 bull markets. Jesse Olson stated in another blog post on Thursday that these signals, along with "several other warning signs," suggest a top has been reached. Other signals include declining network activity, indicating reduced on-chain demand. Nansen data shows that the number of daily active addresses on the Bitcoin network dropped from 632,915 to 447,225 in October, a decrease of 30%. A decrease in daily active addresses indicates reduced network participation and weakened user demand, which is often a precursor to price corrections or prolonged consolidation.

Bitcoin Cycle Top Approaching

Anonymous trader and investor Mister Crypto supports the "cycle top theory," arguing that based on Bitcoin's quadrennial halving cycle, it is currently at a "historically typical peak point."

Looking back at the Bitcoin halving cycles of 2012 and 2016, a similar trend exists: prices gradually accumulate momentum, typically peaking within 518 to 580 days after the halving event (as shown in the chart below).

558 days have passed since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, meaning the current Bitcoin market is within ±40 days of the historical peak window (518-580 days).

Mister Crypto posted on the X platform, stating, "We are currently near a period when Bitcoin typically peaks," and then asked rhetorically, "Will this time be an exception?" Analyst CryptoBird also stated that, following historical patterns of halving cycles, the current Bitcoin price surge may only last a few days. In his latest Bitcoin analysis, CryptoBird pointed out that Bitcoin is "consolidating before a breakout, and the top window has opened." As Cointelegraph previously reported, analysts such as former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believe that the four-year Bitcoin cycle has become ineffective, and the current price is driven more by monetary policy and liquidity than by the halving event. Another view holds that the impact of the halving event is gradually weakening. They suggest that the current period is one of rising interest rates, with institutions gradually entering the market through ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies, and Bitcoin's maturity as a mainstream asset is constantly increasing. These factors may drive Bitcoin to see more upside potential in 2026. Has Bitcoin's upside potential truly run out? Besides the view that the four-year Bitcoin cycle no longer determines the duration of a bull market, some analysts believe, based on technical indicators, that Bitcoin still has room to rise. Analyst Jelle, referring to Bitcoin's daily price chart, stated that Bitcoin "has formed higher lows and the trading range remains intact," and that "if it recovers the $116,000 level, the upward trend will resume." Analyst Mags pointed out that Bitcoin is currently in a "bullish megaphone pattern," which historically often leads to a breakout, suggesting "a significant breakout is imminent." As Cointelegraph reports, Bitcoin's Meyer multiples indicate that the current price level remains near "oversold" territory, meaning the $180,000 target price is still achievable.