Bitcoin is going up and down, don’t be FOMO at any time

Source: Liu Jiaolian

Bitcoin exceeded 47k overnight, and the bear market that lasted less than 24 hours was over again. Yesterday morning, the lowest price was 43k+, and even the DMA30 43k did not penetrate. At a time when everyone was panicking and thought they were going to fill the long lower shadow line of 40k on January 3, Wall Street successfully carried out expectation management and psychological massage, using the bait that the spot ETF was about to pass to pull the market back up.

From 40k to 47k, the fluctuation range exceeds 15%. What I see is not the fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin, but people's anxiety and high nervousness.

Bitcoin is as calm as water. 1 BTC = 1 BTC.

Where are the big fluctuations in Bitcoin? The ups and downs are obviously the human heart.

When you bet on crowd sentiment, you hand your fate over to Satan.

Smart people will always build positions quietly in the dull period when no one cares about it and there are few voices.

What kind of time was that? That’s when you’ve almost forgotten about Bitcoin.

To make a good investment, you must remember when you forget and enter when you leave.

Don’t wait for Bitcoin reminders. When Bitcoin reminds you with its skyrocketing price and you notice it again, the best time to build a position has passed.

You must have Bitcoin in your heart. Whenever possible, leave a place for it.

There is a saying that if you don’t manage your finances, your finances will not care about you. I used to think that "li" meant "to take care of", but now I know it means "to take care of".

You don’t care about Bitcoin anymore, why would you want it to repay you?

So the smart people who leave the market in the bear market and enter the market in the bull market will most likely find it difficult to make anything from Bitcoin.

If you live up to Bitcoin, Bitcoin will live up to you. If you lose money, first ask yourself, have you lost money to Bitcoin?

Bitcoin said: The heart is like still water. Therefore, don’t FOMO (fear of missing out) at any time.

No matter how many people tell you, look, something big is coming (for example, the ETF is going to be passed), Bitcoin is about to skyrocket to a certain amount, and there will never be any more Bitcoins. The money is gone, so hurry up and play. You don't want stud either.

Build positions in batches, don’t be impatient and just take your time.

Even if the cost is a little higher, a stable mentality is more important. An unstable mentality leads to investment losses.

The above picture is often used by many KOLs to compare Bitcoin spot ETFs of a picture. This is the gold trend chart over the past 25 years. The red arrow points to November 2024. What happened at this point in time?

"On November 18, 2004, State Street launched SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), and its asset size exceeded US$1 billion in the first three trading days. As of 2019 , it is the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, with assets exceeding US$40 billion and daily trading volume reaching US$1.7 billion.”

As you can see from Wikipedia, although GLD is not the world’s first gold ETF, But it is the first gold ETF to land in the United States.

It is easy to see from the chart that gold ETFs started the gold bull market for more than 20 years.

However, this rearview mirror is really a bit low power.

Let us zoom in, zoom in, zoom in to 2004-2005, and observe on a more micro scale how the market reacted after the gold ETF was launched.

With this amplification, we can see that we don’t know much if we only listen to big Vs singing the truth.

In fact, just a few days after the gold ETF was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in November 2004, gold reached a local high and then fell into a box (red box in the picture). The market fluctuated sideways for nearly a year.

It was not until September 2005 that gold broke through the box upwards, ushering in a new phase of the market.

What is being sorted out, digested and absorbed during such a long period of box vibration? We have reason to believe that we are paying for the excessive rise in gold driven by sentiment from May to November 2004 before the gold ETF was launched in November 2004.

Because of the adoption of ETF, what originally took two years to complete has gone from the low of 375 in May 2024 to the breakthrough of the box in September 2025 and the local high of 455 in November 2024. , it took one year to complete.

Sometimes, fast is slow. When you start to run fast, you have to stop to drink water and rest your feet, so that you can have the strength to continue on your way.

Once it breaks through the box, what will start is a magnificent market.

But for each specific participant, whether he is locked in FOMO at the starting point of the box and endures for a year, or whether he takes his time and increases his position during the period of box shock, it may lead to quite different outcomes. Ending and fate.

Which kind of person and which kind of strategy can make it easier, easier, and more likely to get through the gloom of the early morning and usher in the glorious red sun?

(Note: Please read critically and do not make simple analogies to what kind of market trends Bitcoin ETF will cause)