Bitcoin market recovers after conference, is “Trump deal” still effective?

Author: Climber, Golden Finance

With the convening of the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, the price of BTC Continuously rising. During this period, especially after Trump’s speech, the overall encryption market recovered significantly. This can’t help but make the “Trump deal” that had stalled before continue again and become a reference for investors’ layout.

"Trump trading" generally refers to a series of investment operations conducted by investors based on Trump's policy expectations, including long cryptocurrency , the logic behind this is to bet on the impact that Trump’s election will have on different asset classes. Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin Conference undoubtedly strengthened the confidence of crypto investors. As of the writing of this article, the price of BTC is approaching the US$70,000 mark, and is likely to surpass the previous high.

However, as Harris’s election has once again plunged the US presidential debate into fog, whether Trump’s encryption effect is really effective, and what will happen to the encryption market in the second half of the year? Issues such as moving forward have also appeared again, and analysts from major institutions have given their own opinions.

Trump’s new encryption manifesto

July On the 28th, Trump stated in his speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference that after being elected, he would completely retain the government-pledged Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and would not allow selling.

In addition, Trump also made clear his stance on a number of important encryption views. For example:

The reason for participating in the 2024 Bitcoin Conference is to keep the United States at the forefront of the cryptocurrency field. The United States will become the global cryptocurrency capital and the world’s Bitcoin superpower.

Bitcoin is "a marvel of cooperation and human achievement." If we don’t embrace cryptocurrency and Bitcoin technology, other countries will dominate. Bitcoin represents freedom, sovereignty, and currency free from government coercion and control.

Will fire U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler on the first day he is elected.

Bitcoin does not threaten the US dollar, the actions of the current US government are threatening the US dollar.

Bitcoin’s market value will surpass gold in the future. Since its birth, the market value of Bitcoin has been getting higher and higher, and it has become the ninth most valuable asset in the world. It will soon surpass silver, and will surpass gold in the future.

Once again promised to commute the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.

The above remarks are extremely complimentary to Bitcoin and even the entire encryption industry. They not only regard BTC as an asset that can surpass gold, but also praise it as a national strategy. level. Judging from the face value of this "blank check" alone, it is undoubtedly very huge for the encryption industry.

Affected by the Bitcoin Conference and Trump’s speech, many well-known institutions and KOLs took advantage of the trend to be bullish on Bitcoin and gave their own predictions.

Micro Strategy founder Michael Saylor first gave a fantasy future price of Bitcoin. He said that as the adoption rate grows, Bitcoin will become a digital currency. Capital characteristics could push the price per Bitcoin to over $13 million by 2045. In a bear market scenario, the price of Bitcoin could be $3 million. But in a bull market scenario, the price of Bitcoin could reach $49 million.

Asset management company Vaneck predicts that by 2050, the price of Bitcoin may reach $2.9 million per coin, becoming a global medium of exchange and reserve currency. 10x Research also expects Bitcoin to eventually break new highs.

The positive impact of Trump’s speech on the crypto market is also reflected in traders’ strategies. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research before his speech Just when it was mentioned in the analysis report that Trump's speech may push up the price of BTC, futures contract traders will not choose to short Bitcoin.

In addition, in response to Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin Conference, Wu Jiezhuang, a member of the Hong Kong SAR Legislative Council, published on the X platform that Bitcoin and Web3 are global It is an important node in the development of globalization and should encourage global common development. In the future, Bitcoin can be considered to be included in strategic financial reserves subject to compliance.

It can be seen that Trump’s speech not only brought positive expectations to investors, but also raised the financial value attributes of Bitcoin to the level of international competition.

Is the second stage of the bull market starting?

Although many related MEME concept coins generally fell after Trump’s speech, the price of BTC increased. Moreover, since the Bitcoin Conference was held, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net inflows of increasing holdings in recent days. It can be seen that the encryption market seems to be gradually entering an upward trend.

Pantera Capital has previously predicted that the crypto market is entering the second stage of the bull market. The reason is that the political and regulatory stance towards cryptocurrencies is undergoing a positive change. Therefore, as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are increasingly recognized by the mainstream, the next wave of crypto bull markets may not be impossible to come.

Recent bullish and positive signals are as follows:

Nansen Analyst: Investors should increase risk and not ignore current positive signals and market narratives, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, U.S. presidential candidate Trump leading the polls, and Bitcoin momentum indicators above the buy threshold. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are increasing and the market capitalization of stablecoins is accelerating, indicating increased net on-chain inflows.

Wintermute: The market value of stablecoins exceeded US$164 billion, supporting the market’s bullish outlook. The increase in stablecoin supply indicates that funds are being deposited into the on-chain ecosystem to generate economic activity that ultimately promotes positive on-chain growth.

Financial Times: The US Vice President Harris campaign is seeking to restart contact with Bitcoin and encryption teams. The team stated that the initiative to reconnect with the cryptocurrency industry is mainly to establish a positive relationship with the crypto industry and pave the way for a reasonable regulatory framework.

CryptoQuant founder: This Bitcoin bull market may last until mid-2025.

Informed sources revealed that Trump has discussed cryptocurrency policy with Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis said she will introduce a bill in early August to allow the U.S. Treasury Department to purchase 1 million Bitcoins (worth approximately 69 billion) within five years. U.S. dollar) to offset the impact of U.S. dollar depreciation.

Bitcoin Magazine CEO announced that he will give Trump a Bitcoin mined in 2013, making him officially a Bitcoin holder.

Cryptocurrency intelligence platform Santiment noted that Bitcoin’s weighted sentiment index has risen to its highest level since March 2023. Bitcoin is up 20% in 3 weeks, making traders even more bullish than they were at the beginning of the month.

Glassnode: Previously when BTC prices fell to the $53,000 area, which resulted in meaningful deleveraging events, many bull-biased traders were caught near the lows. The liquidation, but then rebound price recovery was also very strong, returning most short-term holders to unrealized profits, which provided much-needed financial relief from the net positive capital inflows in recent weeks.

CoinGecko: 43.7% of survey participants expect Bitcoin to exceed $100,000 in this cycle.

On-chain analyst Ali said that data shows that the Bitcoin Hash Ribbon indicator shows that miner capitulation has ended, indicating that Bitcoin price momentum may continue from Negative to positive.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has been raised to 85.7%. Analysis points out that the market will usher in a wave of interest rate cuts in September

From the above information, it can be seen that many events and opinions indicate the future outlook for the Bitcoin and crypto markets There is the possibility of a new bull market. However, investors still need to pay attention to the existence of potential black swans and gray rhinos.

Main negatives include Mt. Gox's debt repayment, Trump's defeat, Harris' ambiguous stance on encryption, renewed regulatory tightening, the decline of U.S. stocks, etc.

Summary

BTC and altcoins before the Bitcoin Conference There has been a general correction in cryptocurrencies, and the official adoption of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF has not boosted the crypto market. However, with the opening of the conference, especially Trump’s speech, the attention of all parties was once again focused on the encryption industry. As far as the current rise of Bitcoin is concerned, this event undoubtedly has a positive and promoting effect.

Many institutions are full of confidence in their judgment on the crypto bull market outlook. If Trump can really be elected as he wishes, then superimposed on the encryption cycle, BTC may really be able to create another revenue miracle. However, investors should also avoid blind optimism. Preserving principal should be the first principle at all times.