Bitcoin OG Prediction: BTC Target Price $500,000, Historic Bull Run Coming

A new report jointly released by veteran Bitcoin researcher Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research points out that the current market stage may be a "steady and strong" period for Bitcoin, that is, it is in the mid-term stage of what may become "one of the most significant bull markets" in Bitcoin's history. The report, titled “How to Position for a Bitcoin Bull Market,” led by Bitcoin economist and early investor Tuur Demeester, predicts that Bitcoin still has 4-10 times the potential for price growth from its current level, which means the target price will exceed $500,000 in the next few years: “We believe that we are currently in the middle stage of what could become one of the most significant bull markets in Bitcoin’s history. Judging from the current range, we believe there is still 4-10 times the room for appreciation, which means the target price of Bitcoin will exceed $500,000.” Multiple indicators support this view, and on-chain trends show that senior holders have firm conviction. For example, the report notes that large investors (whales) are choosing to hold rather than sell. Changes in net holdings show no signs of large-scale capitulation since 2025, a behavior typically associated with market peaks. "Over the past two years, when Bitcoin retested its previous all-time highs during the turmoil of the US election, whales shifted some tokens. However, throughout 2025, net daily transfers by holders never exceeded 100,000, a level that historically indicates a late-stage frenzy sell-off." Another metric, Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), suggests that 50%-70% of Bitcoin's supply is in unrealized profit. This is more consistent with healthy medium-term optimism rather than late-stage exuberance.

The report lists catalysts that could trigger a pullback, but believes the risk of these factors ending the bull market is limited. For example, a major hack could dampen market confidence, but past cases have shown minimal impact on Bitcoin prices: "We believe that only in extreme circumstances could a hacking attack curb or end the Bitcoin bull market. When 120,000 Bitcoins were stolen from Bitfinex in 2016, the price was barely affected." Furthermore, the distribution of tokens from Mt. Gox and bankrupt platforms was quickly absorbed by market demand, with the liquidation of 80,000 Bitcoins in July 2025 causing only a 4% price fluctuation. Coinbase reportedly holds approximately 10% of the Bitcoin supply, which could pose a centralization risk. However, ETF issuers have begun diversifying their custody options, and with the current US government actively incorporating Bitcoin into financial policy, the probability of custodial assets being seized is low. While a macroeconomic crash could cause short-term volatility, the report predicts that Bitcoin will continue to outperform commodities and inflation in the long term. The report represents a sharp break from its 2015 recommendation to allocate a small amount to altcoins, recommending instead holding only Bitcoin and avoiding diversification into projects that are "far inferior to Bitcoin" and lack Bitcoin's network effects, security model, and monetary purity. The author compares Bitcoin's role to the underlying protocol of the internet, arguing it to be the single dominant protocol and predicting that competitors such as Ethereum, Ripple, and Cardano will gradually lose relevance. Tuur Demeester specifically points out that demand for "long-term value storage" is the core engine of Bitcoin's current and future growth. This demand is driven by multiple factors: persistent inflation, fiscal deficits, the loss of bonds' decades-long safe-haven status, the declining attractiveness of real estate as a hedge, and a rotation of capital into assets with high liquidity and low counterparty risk. After El Salvador designated Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, the United States accelerated its adoption under the Trump administration's pro-Bitcoin policies, including the establishment of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, the passage of supportive legislation such as the GENIUS Act, and the rapid popularity of Bitcoin spot ETFs (currently holding approximately 1.4 million BTC). The report noted that the United States' aggressive actions are driving other countries to explore their own Bitcoin strategies: "These strong supportive attitudes are beginning to trigger a global chain reaction." As for how much Bitcoin investors should allocate, the report believes that factors such as risk tolerance and strength of conviction need to be considered. According to the report, a 5% allocation serves as "insurance" against systemic risk; an increase to 10% is considered a speculative hedge within a diversified portfolio; and an allocation of 20%-50% indicates strong conviction, viewing it as an "early retirement" strategy. Regarding custody, the report believes that collaborative multi-sig setups offer the best balance of autonomy and operational security, making them particularly suitable for new entrants. Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research believe that Bitcoin's current bull run is far from over, citing institutional adoption, macroeconomic tailwinds, and unwavering conviction among holders as laying the foundation for potential historic gains.

This is a "mid-term cycle," not a peak.If Bitcoin lives up to its promise to store value, it could redefine its place in the global financial system in the coming years.