Bitcoin once again reaches 110,000, is the bull market back?

Jessy, Golden Finance

Beijing time on July 3, the US macro-level positives continued, the "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the House of Representatives; non-farm data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% in June; and many economic data performed well, such as the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in June reported 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5, and the previous value was 49.9. The US ISM non-manufacturing new orders index in June was 51.3, also higher than the expected 48.2, and the previous value was 46.4. In addition, US industrial product orders in May increased by 8.2% month-on-month, the largest increase since 2014; the monthly rate of US factory orders excluding defense in May was 7.5%, significantly higher than the previous value of -4.2%.

Stimulated by the above macro-level positive news, the three major stock indexes opened higher and closed higher across the board. Bitcoin also stood at 110,000 again. Voices of "bull market is back" and "hitting 200,000 by the end of the year" are heard again. Is the big money release really coming? Can crypto assets catch this overwhelming wealth?

The US economy has recovered strongly, and expectations of interest rate cuts have temporarily cooled

This year, it is generally bet that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in July or September, but the latest series of economic data show that the US economy is still resilient and does not seem to have entered the stage of "must cut".

In June, non-agricultural employment increased by 147,000, higher than the market expectation of 110,000, indicating that companies are still actively recruiting. From 4.2% to 4.1%, although it is a mild decline, it also suggests that the labor market has not yet weakened. In particular, the sharp jump in industrial product orders and new orders indexes shows that the US manufacturing industry is also recovering. At the same time, expectations of fiscal stimulus are also increasing. With the advancement of the stablecoin bill and the "big and beautiful" tax plan, it is possible to release liquidity on the fiscal side.

Also, although the current long-term inflation expectations in the United States are still anchored at the 2% level, the Federal Reserve believes that policies such as trade are still highly uncertain, and tariff policies may push up the prices of imported goods. Its "second-round effect" may prolong price pressure and aggravate short-term inflation.

The Federal Reserve's concerns about short-term inflation and the display of economic resilience have reduced expectations for a rate cut in July. But a rate cut in September is still a high probability event. First, Trump repeatedly put pressure on the Federal Reserve. Trump repeatedly emphasized that high interest rates have led to an excessive burden on U.S. debt interest, saying that "for every 1% increase in interest rates, the federal government will pay an additional $200 billion in interest annually," and demanded a rate cut to 1%-2% to save fiscal spending. He also declared that if interest rates are not cut before September, Congress will be pushed to legislate to weaken the Federal Reserve's decision-making power. It is also under Trump's pressure that the market still has high expectations for a rate cut in September. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is only 4.9%.

Although the non-farm payrolls data in June exceeded expectations, government jobs surged abnormally in June, accounting for nearly half of the new jobs, which contradicts Trump's "streamlining government" policy and is suspected of artificially beautifying the data. If the employment data is not actually so strong, the pressure on the economy may be greater than it appears, which will also increase the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut in September.

In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell changed his words on July 1 and said that "if it were not for the tariff policy, the interest rate should have been cut." In addition, Treasury Secretary Benson also said that "if there is no interest rate cut in July, the magnitude in September may be greater." All of the above are regarded by the market as the Fed "blowing" for the September interest rate cut.

The probability of a rate cut in July is small, but a rate cut in September is still a high-probability event. For the Bitcoin and crypto markets, there will be no aggressive liquidity release in the short term, but in the interest rate cut cycle, the rhythm of the bull market has not been disrupted.

Will Bitcoin hit 200,000 by the end of the year?

In the current bull market, the Nasdaq has reached a new high. Bitcoin fluctuates around the 110,000 mark. Will Bitcoin really reach 200,000 by the end of the year as everyone expects?

Bitcoin is indeed no longer a game for retail investors. Institutions have become the dominant force in this round of bull market. According to Bitcoin Treasuries statistics, as of July 4, 2025, there are 255 entities holding Bitcoin, holding approximately 3.562 million Bitcoins, equivalent to 16.96% of the total 21 million issued.

In terms of Bitcoin spot ETFs, as of the end of June, 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs held a total of more than 1.2 million BTC, accounting for about 6% of the global supply, and Bitcoin in exchanges is becoming increasingly scarce. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin reserves of all centralized exchanges have dropped to only 2.44 million in early July - the lowest level since 2018, indicating that more investors choose to hold for the long term rather than sell in circulation. ETF inflows, and institutions view Bitcoin as digital gold. There is also a saying that Bitcoin will replicate the path of gold's rise after passing through spot ETFs.

From the technical chart, Bitcoin has tested support in the 105,000 area many times and received buying support, and both the daily and weekly lines are in an upward channel. If it can break through the 118,000-120,000 pressure level, the next target will be the 135,000-150,000 area.

From this, we can see that the channel for Bitcoin to continue to rise has been opened. Of course, we must also be wary of geopolitical conflicts or black swans at the macro level.

And as everyone's expectations for Bitcoin's rise continue to rise, is the "altcoin season" coming?

The author believes that there will be some independent altcoins rising, but the general rise will be difficult to replicate. At present, the U.S. stock chain has become a trend, and major exchanges are scrambling to launch related RWA products. For example, XStocks has logged in to Bybit, Bitget, Kraken, Gate and other exchanges and Solana chain DeFi products.

There are endless new things competing with altcoins for funds and attention. Most altcoins are unlikely to make a comeback in this bull market.

In other words, it is difficult for the bull market to reappear. This round of bull market is more like a bull market caused by the slow release of liquidity and the continuous accumulation of institutional positions. Overall, Bitcoin's return to $110,000 is the result of multiple positive factors, and the pace of this round of market may be slower and more differentiated. For investors, they also need to have a strong judgment of the macro trend.