Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to its highest level in two weeks on Monday, buoyed by mixed reactions to China's latest stimulus efforts and growing speculation that cryptocurrency may attract more attention than Chinese stocks. The leading digital asset rose as much as 2.8% before slightly paring gains to trade at $63,890 as of 6:55 AM in London. Alongside Bitcoin, smaller tokens like Ether (ETH-USD) and Solana (SOL-USD) also experienced upward momentum.
China’s Stimulus and Crypto Market Sentiment
The rally comes on the heels of China’s attempt to revive its economy. Over the weekend, Chinese policymakers held a highly anticipated briefing but failed to disclose concrete details about the amount of fiscal stimulus that would be injected into the economy. Economists remain skeptical about whether these efforts are sufficient to counter deflationary pressures, while a previously impressive rally in Chinese equities has started to falter.
According to Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, the lack of decisive action in China may have positively impacted Bitcoin. "Markets are probably taking a disappointing China stimulus to be positive news for Bitcoin, as capital rotation from Bitcoin into Chinese equities was understood to be previously weighing on crypto prices," she said.
As investors grow more cautious about the direction of China’s economic recovery, some appear to be shifting capital back into digital assets, fueling the rise in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
US Political Developments and Market Impact
In addition to China’s economic uncertainties, the US presidential race is also playing a role in supporting digital asset markets. Recent changes in prediction markets have increased the perceived likelihood of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the 2024 election. Trump, a pro-crypto advocate, now has higher odds of victory compared to Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris.
This political shift could be a boon for cryptocurrency markets, with traders betting that a Trump presidency would be more favorable to digital assets. “The recent improvement in Trump polling will amplify the market’s receptiveness and the positive price impact of good news,” noted Benjamin Celermajer, co-chief investment officer at Magnet Capital.
Mt. Gox Repayment Delay and Market Sentiment
Another factor contributing to Bitcoin’s rally is the delay in repayments to creditors of the bankrupt Mt. Gox crypto exchange. Last week, the exchange pushed back its creditor repayment deadline by a year to October 31, 2025. According to Arkham Intelligence, the remaining assets to be repaid amount to approximately $2.9 billion. The postponement alleviates concerns about a potential influx of Bitcoin hitting the market, which could have caused downward price pressure.
Celermajer emphasized that this delay contributes to a more positive market environment for Bitcoin. "Good news such as the Mt. Gox delayed repayment plan will be received more positively," he said, with the potential for reduced supply helping to stabilize the market.
Bitcoin’s Seasonal Trends and October Prospects
Bitcoin’s recent upward movement comes after a lackluster start to October. Historically, October has delivered an average gain of 20% over the past decade, according to Bloomberg data. Despite the slow beginning, experts suggest that Bitcoin may still benefit from a seasonal uptrend.
Sean Farrell, head of digital-asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, believes that the best is yet to come for Bitcoin this month. "Historical data suggests that October’s seasonal strength in crypto markets is typically weighted toward the latter half of the month," he wrote in a note.
Bitcoin's Outlook
As China’s economic stimulus measures fail to inspire confidence, and the US political landscape shifts toward potentially crypto-friendly leadership, Bitcoin and other digital assets seem poised to benefit. Combined with the delayed Mt. Gox repayments and historical trends that favor late-October rallies, the market sentiment for Bitcoin is increasingly optimistic. Investors are now watching to see whether these factors will lead to continued upward momentum in the crypto space as the month progresses.
Alex
