Bitcoin's biggest bomb has yet to explode, but this may also be your biggest opportunity

Author: Daii Source: mirror

From now on, you need to remember a new term: Q-Day, the abbreviation of Quantum Day.

This is the name of the encryption industry for the day when "quantum computers can actually crack Bitcoin private keys." It is not science fiction, nor is it out of reach, but a real and gradually approaching technical node.

Q-Day means that when the first general-purpose quantum computer that can run Shor's algorithm and is sufficient to crack ECDSA private keys goes online, cracks will be chiseled out of Bitcoin's solid shell. IBM's timetable is 5-10 years, and Google is more optimistic, claiming that its "Willow" chip may be able to do the job by 2030 (source investopedia.com).

Once this day comes, those Bitcoin addresses that have ever exposed their public keys will lose their security - attackers can derive private keys and steal assets in just a few hours. About 4 million BTC (nearly 20% of the entire network) will be exposed to risk.

This is Q-Day:

A time bomb that all cold wallet holders should not ignore.

However, the real crisis is never just fear, it may also be the starting point of the next bull market.

History has also told us that every seemingly doomsday technological shock often leaves a floor price for calm buyers - the Internet bubble, the subprime mortgage crisis, and even the FTX collapse are all like this. Bitcoin's quantum crisis will be no exception.

Of course, first we should confirm whether Bitcoin's quantum crisis really exists?

1. Why is the quantum crisis a real crisis?

Success is due to public keys, and danger is also due to public keys.

Bitcoin's quantum crisis is a crisis created by technological progress. And its core is the cornerstone of Bitcoin's existence - Public-key Cryptography.

Public key encryption is the cornerstone of Bitcoin's security system. Its biggest advantage is that it allows you to make the "keyhole" public to the world (public key), while only you hold the "key" (private key).

In the above picture, Alice wants to send a message to Bob. She encrypts it with Bob's public key to generate a string of incomprehensible ciphertext. Only Bob can decrypt and restore the original text with his own private key. This means:

Even if the data is intercepted during transmission, as long as the private key is not leaked, the information is still extremely safe.

This mechanism gives Bitcoin the characteristic of "anyone can send you money, but only you can use it", and also lays the cryptographic foundation for its "trustless" operation.

Because Bitcoin uses an encryption system called Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). In front of classical computers, ECDSA is almost unbreakable - if you want to reverse the private key from the public key, you need to do 2¹²⁸ operations, and supercomputers will be useless even if they calculate for thousands of years.

But quantum computers are completely different.

It is not a classical computer that "runs faster", but a device that runs completely different physical laws. If you give it a quantum machine that can run Shor's algorithm - it can reverse the private key from the public key in a few hours. It's like using a time machine to open a safe that has been sealed for 15 years.

In other words: the security of Bitcoin is not threatened by "hackers", but by "scientific progress".

This is the most worrying part.

This is not the intention of a certain attacker, but the result of "inevitable" one day in the future. No one can stop technology from becoming stronger. When a sufficiently powerful quantum computer is born, any address that has ever exposed a public key is equivalent to exposing its own private key - even if it was signed once 10 years ago, it will be "unlocked" on Q-Day.

According to the 2025 Deloitte report, about 4 million BTC are vulnerable, accounting for about 20% of the total circulation, with a value of over $40 billion. The breakdown is as follows:

• ~2 million BTC are in P2PK addresses, which directly expose public keys and are vulnerable.

• ~2.5 million BTC are in reused P2PKH addresses, which expose public keys after reuse.

And what really makes things worse is that Bitcoin is an irreversible asset. Once the private key is stolen and the funds are stolen, no one will help you recover them. There is no "freeze account" or "password recovery".

So, quantum crisis is not a science fiction story, nor is it a distant hypothesis.

It is not an enemy's weapon, but a future bomb that we have buried ourselves - lying quietly under our feet, waiting for the loud noise of Q-Day.

You may want to ask, can Bitcoin withstand such a big crisis?

The answer is yes, because the quantum crisis did not fundamentally change Bitcoin, but forced the lazy Bitcoin community to speed up the pace of self-evolution.

2. Why can Bitcoin withstand the quantum crisis?

Because the power of Bitcoin lies not only in the encryption algorithm, but also in its ability to evolve itself.

Bitcoin is not a set of hard-coded programs, but a "living system" maintained by global consensus - its protocol can be upgraded, its security model can be adjusted, and its community can respond in advance. The quantum crisis is precisely catalyzing this change.

2.1 Most Bitcoin assets are still "invisible"

Quantum computing attackers cannot directly crack all Bitcoin addresses.

It can only crack those addresses whose public keys have been exposed on the chain, that is to say - you have signed and transferred money with this address before you can be attacked. As of July 1, 2025, the circulation of Bitcoin is about 19.88 million (CoinMarketCap: Bitcoin Supply). After deducting 4 million vulnerable ones, there are 15.88 million left. They are not "open locks" but "puzzles". Cracking these addresses is not a matter of a few hours, but requires brute force cracking of double hashes (SHA256 + RIPEMD160) under the Grover algorithm. Even with an idealized general-purpose quantum computer, it takes 2⁸⁰ operations, equivalent to tens of thousands of years.

In other words:

As long as your coins have never been spent, they are temporarily safe.

2.2 Existing quantum-resistant encryption schemes can replace ECDSA

Currently, the global cryptography community has developed a variety of quantum-resistant signature algorithms, which have been included in the NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) quantum cryptography standardization program.

The most popular ones are:

• Dilithium (lattice-based signature)

• Falcon (small and fast, suitable for embedded devices)

• SPHINCS+ (does not rely on any mathematical problems, belongs to hash signature)

These algorithms have been tested and experimented in the Bitcoin developer circle, including through the BIP-360 proposal for Taproot Add a variety of quantum-resistant signature templates, and some developers have called for the restoration of early script commands (such as OP_CAT) to build more flexible quantum-safe contracts.

In other words, the tools are already there, and we are just waiting for the community to decide when to upgrade.

2.3 Q-Day in reality will not come suddenly

Building a universal quantum computer that can run tens of millions of quantum gates and has thousands of logical qubits at the same time is not something that can be done overnight. Even if IBM and Google can break through the key nodes by 2030, it will take a considerable buffer period for the technology to mature → hackers to master → actual attacks to succeed. The whole process will not be completed overnight.

This has bought several years of reaction time for the community, wallet manufacturers, and miner nodes. Before that, as long as you are willing to transfer your coins to a safe address, you can get out of the risk in advance.

So, don't panic.

Now you just need to change a new Bitcoin cold wallet address and transfer the Bitcoin into it. Remember, once you use it once, your cold wallet will no longer be resistant to quantum computing and you need to transfer it to a new cold wallet address. In the WeChat service account (Airdrop Web3) menu Zero-based tutorial, there is a zero-based Bitcoin cold wallet creation tutorial. You can generate more for yourself. Anyway, it doesn’t cost money and no one needs to approve it.

After taking good care of your own safety, all you need to do is wait patiently for the arrival of the quantum crisis.

Because where there is "danger", there is "opportunity".

3. Why is quantum crisis not a disaster, but an opportunity?

Because market panic is often the best time for smart money to enter the market. And "Quantum Crisis" - the Q-Day (Quantum Day) expected to arrive in the next 5 to 10 years - may be the floor price window you have been waiting for and change your destiny.

3.1 Proof of the stock market

Stock market history has proven countless times: Real wealth is not bought at the peak, but quietly built in panic.

For example, in 2000, the Internet bubble burst, and Amazon (AMZN) stock price plummeted from $107 to $6, a drop of 94.4%. The media shouted "The Internet is over", and investors panicked and sold their stocks. But the real long-term holders reaped more than 1,000 times the return 20 years later.

During the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the S&P 500 index fell more than 50% from its peak. The global market was in mourning, companies went bankrupt, banks collapsed, and everyone was selling assets.

In the same year, Buffett wrote the famous saying in his New York Times column "Buy American. I Am.":

Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. (When others are greedy, I am fearful; when others are fearful, I am greedy)

3.2 Annotation of the Crypto Market

This script is being played out again and again in the crypto market:

In 2022, Luna collapsed and FTX exploded. BTC once fell below $16,000, and the entire network was in a panic liquidation. ETH was also cut in half.

But we have all seen the results: these are not the end of the crypto world, but the starting point of the next cycle. After the collapse of Mt.Gox, Bitcoin hit a new high of $20,000 in 2017; after the FTX crisis, the entire market recovered again in 2023-2024, and Layer2, public chains, and AI + Crypto applications sprang up like mushrooms after rain.

The quantum crisis is also likely to be another form of "black swan" - it will not end Bitcoin, but instead provide cognitive leaders with a strategic opportunity to "pick up bargains" to build positions.

You can imagine the scene: When Q-Day approaches, news media collectively exaggerate that "Bitcoin is not safe"; big Vs on social platforms shout "This is a disaster for cryptocurrencies"; even a celebrity or institution's wallet is hacked, the whole network wails, and funds flee overnight. The moment when prices lose their anchor and emotions fall into panic is the moment when real value investors should take action.

Q-Day may become Q-Dip: Quantum Discounted Investment Point.

3.3 The Power of Logic

More importantly, this "crisis" has not changed the three fundamentals of Bitcoin:

• The total amount of Bitcoin is still only 21 million, which has never changed.

• The protocol itself can be upgraded. As long as the community migrates to the quantum-resistant signature algorithm, Bitcoin can continue to operate and even be more secure.

• The supply and demand in reality have not deteriorated: more than 60% of the Bitcoin supply is locked by long-term holders (LTH), who rarely sell in panic.

Therefore, this "technical panic" is likely to be only a short-term shock - just like Mt.Gox or FTX, it is a local trust collapse, not a systemic collapse.

For those investors who hold cash or stablecoins, have cognitive advantages and operational preparations, this may be a once-in-a-decade opportunity to build positions again.

What you really need to prepare is not to predict the exact time of Q-Day, but to have your wallet, your cognition, and your patience ready when it comes.

Conclusion

The 15-year history of Bitcoin is an epic of collapse and rebirth:

It fell by 93% in 2011, 85% in 2014, and another 80% in 2018. In 2022, Luna and FTX triggered a chain reaction, with a drop of 76%. Every round of decline was pronounced dead by the media; and every deep pit was written into the prologue of the next bull market a few years later.

Now, the quantum crisis may be the next fuse.

It will detonate technical panic and public opinion tsunami, blow out a historic bottom, and clean up those "fragile consensus" that are over-reliant on centralization and over-leverage.

But the explosion is not the end. For those who are prepared, it is a signal flare and a starting gun for bottom-fishing.

Please remember this golden sentence:

The real bull market never rises, but falls.

Start preparing now - check if your cold wallet address is still safe, and learn how to generate a new address that is resistant to quantum attacks. In the WeChat service account (Airdrop Web3) menu Zero-based tutorial, there is a zero-based Bitcoin cold wallet creation tutorial, take it for free, no thanks.

Q-Day will come, the storm will rise, but you will not be the one who is unprepared.

You can't stop the storm, but you can build the sails.