Bitwise: We may be nearing the end of the crypto winter.

Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer, Bitwise; Translated by: Jinse Finance

The bad news is: We've been in a cryptocurrency winter since January 2025. The good news is: We're likely nearing the end of the winter, not the beginning.

I want to say something obvious because I think it will help you profit in the coming months: We are in a full-blown cryptocurrency winter.

I rarely see anyone discussing this online or in mainstream media, but it's an undeniable fact. Bitcoin is down 39% from its all-time high in October 2025, Ethereum is down 53%, and many other crypto assets have fallen even more.

The important thing is to recognize its nature.

This is not a "bull market correction" or a "decline." This is a full-blown cryptocurrency winter, much like the one Leonardo DiCaprio's character experienced in *The Revenant* in 2022—caused by excessive leverage and massive profit-taking by OGs. For me, recognizing and accepting this was a revelation. Why are cryptocurrency prices falling despite a constant stream of positive news regarding adoption, regulation, and progress in other areas? Because we are in the depths of a cryptocurrency winter. Why is the new Federal Reserve chairman a Bitcoin enthusiast, yet the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is near all-time highs? Because we are in a cryptocurrency winter. If you've followed the cryptocurrency market through past winters—whether 2018 or 2022—you'll remember that good news is meaningless at the depths of a winter. Wall Street's massive hiring spree or Morgan Stanley's increased cryptocurrency investment won't drive a market rally. These factors may be important in the long run, but now is not the time. The cryptocurrency winter won't end in euphoria, it will end in exhaustion. So, when will this all end? The good news is: I think it's almost over. The history of cryptocurrency winters: Crypto winters typically last about 13 months. For example, Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed out in December 2018. It peaked again in October 2021 and bottomed out in November 2022. Based on this, we're facing a tough period. After all, Bitcoin's peak is expected in October 2025. Are we going to have to wait until next November? I don't think so. The more time I spend analyzing the current "winter," the more I realize it started as early as January 2025. We just can't see it because the flow of funds from ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) is masking the truth.

ETF and DAT inflows mask the harsh winter of 2025

Take a closer look at this chart of the Bitwise 10 Large-Cap Cryptocurrency Index constituents since January 1, 2025.

Bitwise 10 Large-Cap Cryptocurrency Index Constituent Returns: Year-to-Date 2025

Data source: Bitwise Asset Management.