Blast's opening price prediction

Author: NingNing Source: X, @0xNing0x

$ZK $ZRO's poor list performance challenges the effectiveness of the comparative valuation method and VC post-investment valuation method commonly used in the valuation of new coins in the crypto market. We can no longer ignore the weight of market sentiment and community opinion in the pricing of new coins.  

Currently, Blast is priced at $2.88 in the Aevo pre-trading market. This price has already priced in the crypto market systemic risk, L2 track risk and market Fud sentiment, but has not yet priced in community opinion.  

 Community opinion depends on the rationality of airdrop allocation and the consistency of incentives. We need to wait for Blast to announce the airdrop rules in the near future. Given that Blast is a points-based airdrop system, its airdrop rules are more transparent and predictable than interactive tx airdrop systems such as Zksync and Layerzero, and it is expected that community opinion will not be as extremely negative as the former two. Currently, the pre-trading price of $Blast is $2.88 billion, which is almost at the same level as $ZK. From the fundamental data of Rollup (the number of tx data released to L1 per day, the average size of tx data released to L1 per day, and the average non-sequential packaging time interval per day), $Blast and $ZK are indeed on the same level.

Based on the above analysis, the opening price of $Blast is likely to fall within the range of $3±10%. Whether the overall price trend after the opening is upward or downward, the key factor is whether the airdrop rules can be recognized by the community.