BTC has reached its previous high: currency speculators are short-term, currency hoarders are undefeated, and workers are glorious

Source: Liu Jiaolian

The roc rises with the wind in one day and soars ninety thousand miles.

When I woke up early on the 5th, I saw that BTC continued to surge upward, breaking 68.5k. This has actually reached and exceeded the previous high of 68.35k at the closing price on November 10, 2021. As for the instant high of 69k at that time, it was just a shudder away.

In February, it reached two levels: 42k correction, and pulled to 50,000. 50,000 rest, pulled to 60,000.

At the beginning of March, the correction of 60,000 ended and it reached the previous high.

Those who have no position stomp their feet regretfully. Those who had positions or were waiting to buy began to tremble with fear of heights. After all, from January 20th until now, BTC has risen sharply from 38.5k to 68.5k, with almost no correction.

What is even more "scary" is that looking at the trading volume chart, on February 29, when it first exceeded 60,000, there was a fierce battle between bulls and bears, with a large amount of volume.

In the next three days, 60,000 consolidated, and the trading volume became lower and lower, but the price was as stable as Mount Tai. The shorts are at the 60,000 line, and those who should hand over their chips have handed over their chips, while the bulls have accepted them all.

On the two days of March 4th and 5th, when BTC bulls started to attack again, although the price level was higher, the trading volume became smaller. This is called "shrinking and rising".

The shrinking increase clearly sends a signal to the market: short sellers have fewer and fewer chips to block the increase, and they are about to run out of ammunition.

This is a short squeeze.

The bits are rising, the bits are rising, and the bits are rising.

BTC, which has been soaring all the way, is like the wheel of history, ruthlessly running over the corpse of short sellers. A short seller who overestimates his capabilities can only act like a mantis.

When Jiaolian wrote an article on April 12, 2023, some excerpts are as follows:

"I am also bullish, but there is no need to be so FOMO."

"With the Fed not releasing water, it is hard to imagine that Bitcoin can break through the previous high of 69,000"

"Starting to fantasize . The description is almost at the top."

Today, March 5, 2024, no one may doubt the goal set in the title of this article.

However, few people will remember these pioneering achievements. Because the 25k people who got off the bus last year have a high probability of not getting back on the bus yet, and they have missed out on this round of market conditions.

Coin speculators often lose money, but coin hoarders never lose.

Some readers asked, in the future, BTC will be bought by institutions, and retail investors will have less and less opportunities?

Indeed, in our inherent experience and knowledge, almost all assets and resources are quickly monopolized by large investors, and retail investors can only be forced to accept bullying, or quit the game and start another one. "Specialize in the new, not in the old" is a highly concentrated expression of this empirical wisdom.

But BTC is exactly a kind of "counter-common sense" existence. It naturally has the ability to fight against monopoly and continuously disperse itself. As Jiaolian once said, "Judging from the changes in the distribution of Bitcoin holdings in the past 12 years, its trend from concentration to decentralization is very obvious."

As For consensus currency, the more centralized it is, the lower its value is; the more decentralized it is, the higher its value is.

Playing BTC with wealthy investors, speculators may get wiped out, but hoarders who make money off the market and add to their positions will definitely not suffer.

Next, Jiaolian will demonstrate this conclusion from the basic principles of an economic perspective.

In a market economic system, people must rely on peaceful and honest exchanges to meet their own needs. This is true whether it is a wealthy man with great wealth or a poor man who is impoverished. No matter how rich and powerful a wealthy owner is, he cannot force the poor to work for him without paying him. Otherwise, this is not a market economic system, but a power economic system and a violent economic system.

The establishment of a market economic system is not so much the result of political progress as it is the result of the development of productive forces. Upper decision decided by the economic background. When forced labor yields worse results than paid labor, it is natural that violent coercion will be replaced by fair exchange. Forced labor can be used to move bricks and dig sand, but it may be difficult to obtain good results through forced labor when designing software, mobile phones, missiles, buildings, or AI algorithms.

What are the characteristics of rich people? No labor required. Even if a rich man is still working, even if he does everything better than others, he still needs to allocate part of the work to those who are weaker than him, and divide the labor and cooperate, so that he can get greater economic returns. This was proven by Ricardo long ago.

Division of labor is not about comparing with others, but comparing yourself with yourself. You are better at A, B, and C than me, but if you only do A, which you are best at, and assign B and C to me who are not as good as you, you and I will both get greater benefits. output. This is the theory of comparative advantage discovered by Ricardo in the 18th century.

As early as the 8th century, Li Bai, a poet from the Tang Dynasty in China, used a sentence full of romanticism: "I am born with talents that will be useful", which reminded the truth of Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage: no matter how useless a fool, The poor can occupy a place in the division of labor and cooperation in the economic system and exert their abilities.

Therefore, the rich also need to exchange labor, or the products of labor, from the poor. Then, the rich need to pay the poor accordingly.

However, the debt currency system has created a huge loophole and unfairness, that is, it is easier for the rich to obtain excess currency during the credit expansion cycle, and to escape debt repayment responsibilities through debt restructuring during the credit contraction cycle. , thus obtaining a steady stream of super-issued currency, which can forever pay and purchase the labor of the poor, thus solidifying the classes of both parties.

Jiaolian’s article on March 4th "Bitcoin’s end: may be equal to The total value of all human surplus! " has clarified that the contemporary economy has to implement the credit adjustment suggested by Keynes in order to stimulate excess consumption to balance excess production and avoid the inevitable crisis of the capitalist production mode.

The monetary authorities must encourage the expansion of credit during the economic expansion cycle, so it must be the wealthy class with strong asset strength, strong social connections, and greater risk-taking spirit who are more likely to borrow money. In the game of allocating excess currency according to debt Under the rules, priority is given to taking away and enjoying the purchasing power of money that is exceeded by credit expansion.

When the housing market was booming from 2005 to 2020, the bosses of real estate companies and home loan buyers who were eager to buy houses became a group of people who had everything to eat and drink.

When the economic cycle reverses and the crisis of deleveraging comes, the authorities cannot just watch the companies and individuals that used debt and leverage go bankrupt. This will trigger a severe economic recession and social unrest, so they must take action. The essence of bailout is to write off part of the debt and allow the original borrowers to escape disaster. This is the “harmonious deleveraging” popularized by Dario, founder of Bridgewater Associates.

Keynes’s method, for the sake of a good economy and a good society, allows some people to borrow money freely on sunny days to enjoy the good things and drink. However, when the economy goes down and there is brutal deleveraging, it will They had no choice but to allow them to let go of their debts without having to repay the excessive wealth consumed by the popular and spicy drinkers. Instead, they had to pass on the debts to the whole society to bear. In this way, the good things enjoyed are enjoyed by a few people, while the pain of debt repayment is shared by the majority of poor people. Can this be considered fair? Even according to the ancient simple ethics of "repaying debts and repaying debts", it is difficult to say that it is in line with people's concept of justice.

The rich take advantage of the unspeakable secrets of the credit cycle to achieve permanent class consolidation. As long as money continues to be printed and spent, the rich can sit on the heads of the poor without working, while the poor work hard and work hard all day long. They have worked hard for generations but cannot turn over.

Soros said: "The history of world economics is a series based on illusions and lies. The way to gain wealth is to recognize the illusion, invest in it, and then exit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public." ” (Soros’ “Financial Alchemy”)

However, the poor are firmly bound in the game of credit and legal currency and cannot “exit”.

Ultimately, people lack an "exit" tool.

In 2008, a person with the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto proposed a new idea, Bitcoin.

On July 6, 2010, Satoshi Nakamoto posted on the bitcointalk forum, shouting: "Escape from the risk of arbitrary inflation of centrally managed currencies! The total circulation of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million. Coins."

Thank you Satoshi Nakamoto for giving poor people around the world a tool to "exit" the game. At any time, anywhere in the world, anyone can freely choose to "exit" the fiat currency game without the approval or permission of any authority. Saving 10%-50% of your salary income every month and exchanging it for BTC is the specific action of "exiting".

Because no matter how rich the rich are, even Bill Gates, Zuckerberg, and Buffett, they cannot first obtain more excess printed BTC like mastering or using the legal currency printing machine. Therefore, , measured in BTC, their purchase of the labor of any BTC holder strictly reduces their own BTC in a mathematical sense and increases the BTC of the BTC holder who provides labor.

If they never work and do not take part of the labor of their corporate employees for free, then the BTC in their hands will definitely continue to decrease and eventually reach zero.

Therefore, the Ricardian principle of comparative advantage determines that the rich must buy the labor of the poor, and withdrawing from BTC will make the labor of the poor disperse the BTC in the hands of the rich, thus promoting the decentralization of BTC. , that is, increasing its value.

No matter how rich the rich are, they cannot bear the large number of poor people and the endless river of time.

For example, even if a big hoarder like MicroStrategy hoards 200,000 BTC today, it will spend 10 BTC a day in the future to buy products or services from other people or companies. It only takes 20,000 days and will be exhausted in less than 55 years.

Now everyone understands that in the legal currency game, income is the carrot in front of the blindfolded donkey’s head. No matter how hard the poor work to make money, they cannot make all the money in the hands of the rich; when the poor quit the legal currency game , after choosing to hoard BTC with income, the rich will find that they can no longer get something for nothing and easily win as before, and the poor will soon earn away all their BTC with their hard-working hands through reasonable, legal and fair exchanges. .

The conclusion could not be more obvious: in the BTC game, those who hoard BTC with off-market income are the eternal winners.

This game will be a fairer and more honest game: those who love working and fighting will always win.

That’s when we truly realized what the lyrics sung: Only if you love to work hard will you win!

BTC realizes that beautiful vision: workers are not only the most glorious, but also get the greatest benefits.