BTC is waiting for further gains

By Anthony Pompliano, Founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management

President Trump's son was on CNBC this morning talking about Bitcoin. But Eric Trump wasn't just talking; he was spreading the gospel of digital currency. Listen to what he had to say:

Bitcoin has become the modern-day gold, and people around the world are flocking to it. Fortune 500 companies, sovereign wealth funds, and wealthy families are all hoarding Bitcoin. Bitcoin is an incredible asset, extremely liquid and perhaps the greatest hedge against real estate. It's global and protected by a vast energy mining ecosystem. Bitcoin has become the greatest asset of our time.

You don't hear someone with direct access to the president say, "Bitcoin has truly become the greatest asset of our time."

It sounds great, but the devil is in the details. First, analyst Daniel Pico points out that so far in 2025, gold has outperformed Bitcoin. Gold is up 40%, while Bitcoin is up only 22%. Some might be concerned about this, but I wouldn't jump to conclusions. Gold has become a leading indicator for Bitcoin. Earlier this year, gold outperformed, and Bitcoin eventually caught up and surpassed gold, but in recent weeks, gold has reclaimed its lead. Why is this happening? Because gold appears to have become a leading indicator for Bitcoin's performance. I shared this chart by Jack Green in May. It shows that Bitcoin tends to break out and catch up to gold's performance with a lag of about 100 days. So, when gold rises, Bitcoin waits about three months before quickly following suit. Given this dynamic, you can think of Bitcoin as a coiled spring. BTC is poised for further gains.

This is why Timothy Peterson said, "Bitcoin is experiencing its worst bull run ever."

Many Bitcoin users are disappointed with this performance. It's a classic! Any other investor in the world would be ecstatic about a 23% annual return, but Bitcoin users are accustomed to much higher returns. They don't want tens of percent, they want hundreds of percent, and they want it every year.

However, I wouldn't hold out too much hope for that level of performance.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut

I do believe Bitcoin will continue to rise before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates in the early morning of September 18, which will bring cheap funds to assets such as Bitcoin.

MACD indicator turns green for the first time in weeks

Analyst Frank Fetter emphasized that Bitcoin's MACD indicator turned green for the first time in weeks. Bitcoin's Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a momentum indicator that has historically been good at showing when market sentiment is turning bullish. As market sentiment becomes more positive, capital flows and Bitcoin prices tend to rise. You don't have to overthink it. Sometimes, it's really that simple.

3Y Bitcoin Risk Index Low, BTC Doubled at Last Low

Finally, Axel Adler pointed out that the 3-year Bitcoin Risk Index is currently at 23%.

The last time the index was this low for an extended period, we saw the price of Bitcoin rise from under $30,000 per coin to nearly $60,000. This happens between September and December 2023.

I'm not saying the price of Bitcoin will double in the next 120 days, but I do think that a lot of the data we're seeing suggests that the price of Bitcoin will rise in the coming weeks. The Bitcoin bull run isn't over yet. There's still a lot of fun to be had.

Just don't expect this bull run to be like past ones.