BTC may not have the basis for a long-term decline at this stage

Author: Liu Jiaolian

The good wind sends me to the blue sky with its power.

), after BTC reached a high of 49k, it first took more than half a month to adjust all the way to 38.5k, and then it couldn't bear it and began to rebound. On February 8, it closed up by 5% and returned to above 45k. It skyrocketed non-stop from 45k to a record high of 72.6k on March 13, one month later, effectively breaking through and surpassing the previous high of 69k on November 10, 2021, sending a technical signal of a bull market.

Just as Jiaolian pointed out in the "2022 Year-end Review Outlook Report" in December 2022 that 16-17k was likely to be a cycle low; then, when Now, in March 2024, BTC has broken through the previous high and reached a new historical height of around 70k. On March 14, Jiaolian internal reference "Research said that BTC will rise to 77k in early April and rise to 77k in 90 days." "$146,000" indicates that the midfield risk is increasing. At that time, the internal reference said this:

"Currently, 73k is basically at the mid-track position. From here upwards, the risk begins to increase. Up The higher the ratio, the greater the risk.

「In a bear market, deleveraging can almost result in a drop of 70-80%, because this basically means It shows how large the leverage accumulated in the bull market is. Even if it rises to 350,000 dollars, a height that many people may not dare to imagine, a 70% correction will return to 100,000 dollars; an 80% correction will return to 70,000 dollars. It is the range where the current bull market started. What if the top of the mountain is not as high as 350,000? Then the height after the correction will only be lower.

"Therefore, starting from $70,000 is a "confirmation signal" for the leeks who had previously withdrawn from the circle to come back one after another, but it is also a watershed for the market to switch from low risk to high risk. A bear market is a good opportunity to build a position. It is already a bull market, and many people who entered it at this time may not make much money after going through this bull and bear cycle.」

In the spirit of leniency when predicting the enemy, in the encryption market, the mathematical expectation of profit and loss of 5 times the income is already equal to 0. This is still the lowest risk BTC.

If we still look at the old double-logarithmic price corridor, the upper track at the end of 2024 is 37.7 million dollars, and the lower track is 35.5 million dollars. By the end of 2025, the upper track will be 51.2 million dollars, and the lower track will be 50,000 dollars. By the end of 2026, the upper track will have 68.3 million dollars, and the lower track will have 70,000 dollars. (See the Jiaolian 2021.7.24 article "Bitcoin's Price Corridor")

Visible to the naked eye, there are several intuitive inferences:

1. The end of this year We are expected to see 100,000+ BTC.

2. If this bull market can "fully develop" (that is, hit the upper rail), then we may be lucky enough to see it in the next 1-2 years 30w-50w BTC.

3. If the "four-year cycle" is still valid, then the bear market at the end of 2026 will approach the downward track 7w. This is exactly the price range for BTC today.

Know what you know:

30w -70% = 9w, 30w -80% = 6w ; 

35w -70% = 10w, 35w -80% = 7w; 

40w -70% = 12w, 40w -80% = 8w; 

45w -70% = 13w, 45w -80% = 9w;  

50w -70% = 15w, 50w -80% = 10w.

Remember what Li Zongsheng sang in "The Hills": After crossing the hills, I found that no one was waiting. Before you can see immortality as you wish, you will lose yourself first.

I hope that friends who enter the venue at this time will cross the hills and not get lost. When you reach the other side of the hill, you will find the teaching chain already waiting.

4. If Laojiao wants to "escape from the top", he might as well divide the position into two parts: one part is for adding a position with less than 50,000 dollars, and can hardly move. Rushan; the other one is to add positions above 70,000 dollars, maybe after crossing 10-150,000 dollars, the positions can be reduced in batches.

The awareness of reducing positions must be not to take advantage of BTC, that is, to think that you can buy more at a cheaper price. To lighten your position, you will have to bear the risk of "flying". If you can't buy it back in the future, just don't regret it. Without this open-minded attitude, we will surely fail.

Do you think we can wait until 200,000 or even 300,000 or more before starting to reduce the position? In fact, you can wait as long as you want. that is your freedom. As for whether you can wait, that depends on fate.

Understand probability. Abandon black and white thinking.

5. According to the "breathing theory (hypothesis)" proposed by Jiaolian (refer to Jiaolian's 2023.1.16 article "Bitcoin Price Forecast in 2023"), in I returned to the water in May 2022 and have been exhaling until today. It seems that I have already exhausted all the air I inhaled from 2021 to the first half of 2022. Bitcoin’s entire lung capacity has been exhausted, and it urgently needs to get out of the water (middle track) to inhale fresh air (funds). As the title of this article says, BTC may not have the basis for a long-term decline at this stage.

"It has been said in ". The original words are as follows:

"If you look at it from the perspective of breathing theory, it has just come to the surface (not yet), and the breath is almost gone. Exhale all the breath in the 2021 bull market. If you don’t inhale more air above the middle track, what should you do if you don’t inhale more air above the middle rail, and it crashes suddenly, and you have no air to exhale underwater? It seems unreasonable. p>

This comment was made when commenting on the statement made by a certain fund founder at that time that BTC would correct by 15% in March.

From the perspective of macro factors, that is, external factors, with the expiration of the BTFP tool in March and the resurgence of U.S. inflation, the Fed’s interest rate meeting will not be held quickly. Moving towards easing, none of this is good news. In addition, BTC has indeed risen sharply in the past few months, which is daunting. At this moment, any macro analyst may tell you that BTC should undergo a correction of considerable magnitude and length.

However, if we operate from the endogenous contradiction, that is, from the perspective of internal factors, but "draw the sword and look around at a loss", we cannot see that BTC should How to plunge directly into this place.

Many people think that external factors must determine internal factors. However, the teacher's "On Contradiction" always clearly tells us that internal factors determine external factors. “So victory or defeat depends on internal factors.”

External factors can only exert their effects through internal factors. If internal factors do not allow it, no matter how external factors are imposed, it will be useless. Just like your child doesn't like to study, no matter how hard you force him, you can't force him to become a top student.

I think that the Federal Reserve, which is almost as powerful as a god, will never be able to defeat the teacher's ideas.

This does not mean that you cannot make sharp pulls with pins. The needle insertion time is extremely short and does not occupy breathing volume. Even if a -90% needle is inserted, its integral area is almost zero. In order to liquidate your position, anything is possible.

Theoretical derivation and academic discussion. Make bold assumptions and verify carefully. It is not intended to be used as any investment basis or trading advice, please bear in mind.