Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset, but it is a "crisis-useful asset," capable of functioning when borders are closed and banks fail. If these three asymmetries narrow, Bitcoin may no longer be a replica of gold, but rather a completely new "next-generation gold." Generational shifts and the widespread adoption of algorithms are key factors that could accelerate this process. 1. Is Bitcoin truly "digital gold"? On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran. Following the announcement, the price of gold immediately rose. In contrast, the price of Bitcoin plummeted to $63,000 that day, before recovering within a day. The same event produced drastically different reactions. During periods of geopolitical shock such as war, Bitcoin's price action differs from gold. Bitcoin often rebounds quickly after an initial drop, but the chain reaction triggered by forced liquidation of leveraged traders can amplify the decline. During the Iran-Israel conflict, Bitcoin's price fell by as much as 9.3% intraday, and during the Ukraine war, it fell by 7.6%. In stark contrast, gold prices rose during the same period.
Bitcoin is often the first asset to fall during a crisis. Can we still call it "digital gold"?
2. Bitcoin is not "digital gold" for countries or investors.
Bitcoin was not originally designed to be "digital gold." Satoshi Nakamoto's 2008 white paper was titled "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System." Its starting point was as a transfer mechanism, not a store of value.
The concept of "digital gold" that we know today became popular in 2020 during the period of zero interest rates and quantitative easing policies. As concerns about currency devaluation reached their peak, Bitcoin received much attention as a store of value. However, in practice, neither countries nor investors regard Bitcoin as "digital gold."
2.1. Sovereign Nations: Hoarding Gold, But Ignoring Bitcoin Data from the World Gold Council shows that central banks have never stopped buying gold year after year. However, no major central bank includes Bitcoin in its total reserve assets. One might argue that the US formally established a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" through an executive order in March 2025. The text of the order even states that "Bitcoin is often referred to as 'digital gold'." But the details are different. The reserve is limited to assets seized through criminal and civil forfeiture proceedings. The government does not buy new Bitcoin, but only holds seized Bitcoin, not sells it. It is noteworthy that as the attractiveness of US Treasury bonds declines, Europe and China are actively buying gold, but Bitcoin has not yet been included in their list of alternatives. 2.2 Investors: Falling Together, Rising Differently The second half of 2025 is crucial. The Nasdaq hit an all-time high, while Bitcoin plummeted more than 30% from its October high of $125,000. The two assets began to diverge. But the real problem isn't the decoupling itself, but the direction. Bitcoin falls when the stock market falls, but doesn't rise when the stock market rises. This is the worst combination for investors. Holding an asset that carries both downside risk and misses out on upside gains makes no sense. Bitcoin is far from a safe haven, and even as a risk asset, its appeal is questionable. 3. Why Bitcoin Has Failed to Become "Digital Gold" A safe haven asset is not simply an asset whose price is rising. From an academic perspective, it refers to an asset whose correlation with other assets drops to zero or even turns negative during extreme economic recessions. The key question is whether its response during a crisis is predictable. Measured by this standard, the gap between gold and Bitcoin is obvious. Gold meets all four requirements. Bitcoin clearly only meets one: a fixed supply. Liquidity is conditional. The other two requirements are not met. Three structural asymmetries can explain this gap. **Market Structure Asymmetry:** Physical demand for gold supports its price floor, and its futures leverage is relatively low. Bitcoin's derivatives trading volume is approximately 6.5 times that of its spot trading volume, and its market operates 24/7, making it often the first asset to be sold off during a crisis. **Participant Asymmetry:** Buyers during gold crises are patient capital, such as central banks, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds. The main participants in the Bitcoin market are leveraged traders and hedge funds, which are precisely the capital that is first to withdraw during a crisis. **Behavioral Accumulation Asymmetry:** The behavioral pattern of "buying gold during a crisis" has repeated itself for decades, eventually becoming a fixed pattern. Bitcoin needs time to earn the same trust. 4. Insecure, but Proven Useful
In terms of security, it's difficult to call Bitcoin "digital gold." But its role in crises is undeniable.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the Central Bank of Ukraine immediately restricted electronic transfers and ATM withdrawals. Bank branches closed, and people couldn't even withdraw their own deposits. Some refugees crossed the border carrying USB drives containing Bitcoin mnemonic phrases. Reportedly, upon arriving in Poland, they exchanged Bitcoin for local currency through Bitcoin ATMs or P2P transactions to cover living expenses.
The UNHCR went further, distributing the stablecoin USDC to displaced persons and launching a program that allows them to exchange it for local currency at MoneyGram branches.
The UNHCR went a step further, distributing the stablecoin USDC to displaced persons and launching a program that allows them to exchange it for local currency at MoneyGram branches.
During Operation Epic Fury in 2026, outflows from Nobitex, Iran's largest cryptocurrency exchange, surged by 700% immediately after the airstrikes. These cases demonstrate that people turn to Bitcoin not because it's a safe-haven asset, but because it can function when the financial system fails. In finance, a "safe-haven asset" refers to an asset whose price remains stable during a crisis. This differs from the concept of assets usable during a crisis. While Bitcoin clearly provides functional value for transfer and accounting during wartime, it cannot guarantee its own price. What truly constitutes a safe-haven asset is not its utility, but the predictability of its price behavior. Bitcoin possesses the former, but cannot guarantee the latter. 5. Bitcoin's "Next-Generation Gold" Scenario In every crisis, Bitcoin's price movement has been diametrically opposed to gold. Neither nations nor investors have considered it "digital gold." However, in regions with closed borders and shut-down banks, Bitcoin's utility cannot be ignored. Given this potential, if these three asymmetries narrow, the path to "next-generation gold" will open. 5.1 Market Structure Shift Derivatives trading volume is 6.5 times that of spot trading, triggering chain sell-offs in every crisis. Recently, futures open interest has declined, and price discovery mechanisms show signs of shifting towards spot and ETFs. But the real test lies in whether leverage will be rebuilt in the next bull market. 5.2. Participant Shift Following the approval of spot ETFs in 2024, institutional capital poured in, making Bitcoin a mainstream financial asset. However, this led to a paradox: the more institutional investors included Bitcoin in their portfolios, the more easily Bitcoin was sold off along with stocks during periods of heightened risk aversion. Bitcoin's accessibility increased, but its independent price volatility disappeared. This is the paradox of financialization. Gold ETFs have also become mainstream; however, during crises, gold's price movement has been inversely related to stocks because "crisis buying" is a pattern that has been established for over half a century. To break this paradox, the composition of participants must shift from leveraged traders to patient capital. Herein lies an easily overlooked variable: generational shift. When Generation Z begins to inherit and manage real wealth, gold may still be a safe haven for their parents. This generation's first investment account is not a securities account, but a cryptocurrency exchange. For the generation whose first encounter with an asset was Bitcoin, they might instinctively choose Bitcoin over gold during a crisis. This shift in participants may not begin with institutional decisions, but rather with a change in generational behavior. 5.3 Cumulative Behavioral Shifts After the Nixon shock, it took approximately 50 years for the "buy during a crisis" pattern for gold to take shape. Will Bitcoin need the same time? Not necessarily. The current US-Iran conflict is the sixth test, and the result is the same again: a sharp drop followed by a rebound. As this pattern repeats, people increasingly believe that "it will fall, but it will always rebound." A more important variable is the algorithm. Today, a large portion of Bitcoin trading volume comes from AI agents and algorithmic trading. If the "buy Bitcoin during a crisis" strategy is embedded in these algorithms, then this pattern can form without the accumulation of human behavior. In this case, trust is built in the code before humans. Bitcoin is not yet "digital gold." However, if the market structure, participant composition, and patterns of behavioral accumulation shift based on its proven utility, it has the potential to become "the next generation of gold." It is not a replica of gold, but the birth of an entirely new category.
Kikyo
Weatherly
Catherine
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