Coinbase: Despite the October 11th Flash Crash, Bitcoin May Still Exceed Expectations in Q4. Coinbase published an article on October 16th, expressing optimism about the crypto market in the fourth quarter, but the leveraged flash crash on October 11th prompted caution. Nevertheless, we expect strong liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and encouraging regulatory developments to continue supporting it. Especially driven by favorable macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin may be able to exceed market expectations. On the policy front, we expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates two more times this quarter, which may encourage investors to invest some of the $7 trillion currently parked in money market funds in the crypto market. 10X Research: Retail Investors Lose $17 Billion After Bitcoin Stock Collapses A new research report, released on October 18th, indicates that retail investors have lost an estimated $17 billion attempting to indirectly invest in Bitcoin through digital asset holding companies like Metaplanet and Michael Saylor's Strategy. These losses are primarily due to excessive equity premiums, which allowed these companies to issue shares at prices far exceeding the actual value of their crypto holdings.
The report, titled "After the Magic: How Bitcoin-Holding Companies Must Evolve Beyond the Illusion of Net Worth," states that retail investors "actually lost approximately $17 billion, and new shareholders paid an additional premium of approximately $20 billion for Bitcoin exposure." Citing Strategy as an example, the authors note that the company's stock price currently represents only 1.4 times the value of its Bitcoin holdings, a significant reduction from previous premiums of 3-4 times.
The strategy of most companies holding Bitcoin is quite simple: issue shares at a premium to their net asset value, use the price difference to buy Bitcoin, and repeat. Researchers point out that Metaplanet's market capitalization soared to $8 billion thanks to its $1 billion investment in Bitcoin, then plummeted to $3.1 billion, while its Bitcoin holdings were valued at $3.3 billion. California Governor Gavin Newsom Signs California's First Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Bill According to market news: California Governor Gavin Newsom has just signed the state's first Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bill into law. Data: Gold's current market capitalization is approximately 14.5 times that of Bitcoin. According to Cointelegraph, on Thursday, as the price of gold climbed to a new all-time high of $4,357 per ounce, its market capitalization hit a record high of $30 trillion. This means that gold's market capitalization is now 14.5 times that of Bitcoin, which is approximately $2.1 trillion. It is also 1.5 times greater than the combined market capitalization of the world's "Big Seven" tech companies—Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla—which is approximately $20 trillion. Bitcoin OG: The Lubian Pool Hack Has Nothing to Do with Bitcoin's Intrinsic Security Regarding the recent crypto community discussion regarding the theft of 127,000 BTC from the Lubian Pool, which ultimately fell under the control of the US government, Bitcoin OG 2040 posted on X that there are two ways to generate wallet private keys: 1. The simplest method is to hash the user's {email (UID) + password} to create a private key, which is a one-time operation and lacks strength. 2. Using HSM hardware encryption to generate private keys provides sufficient cryptographic strength for wallet private keys. Lubian uses the first method, so theft is inevitable. Even if it doesn't happen, insiders will likely steal. This hack has nothing to do with Bitcoin's inherent security. Bitcoin has always been the most secure in crypto, bar none. Ethereum's Fusaka Upgrade Live on the Sepolia Testnet Following a successful trial on the Holesky testnet two weeks ago, Ethereum developers launched a second test of the Fusaka upgrade on the Sepolia testnet early Tuesday. A final rehearsal on the Hoodi testnet is scheduled for October 28th, marking the final step before developers set a date for mainnet activation. Fusaka introduces PeerDAS, a data verification method that allows validators to process only a portion of the data, reducing bandwidth requirements and lowering costs for institutional users and the Layer 2 network. Li Lin, Shen Bo, Xiao Feng, and Cai Wensheng Partner to Establish $1 Billion Ethereum Treasury Some of Asia's earliest and most prominent Ethereum supporters plan to acquire a Nasdaq-listed company and launch a $1 billion Ethereum digital asset treasury (DAT). Participating in the initiative include Huobi founder and Avenir Capital Chairman Li Lin, Fenbushi Capital founder Shen Bo, HashKey Group CEO Xiao Feng, and Meitu founder Cai Wensheng. Avenir, which manages over $1 billion in assets, has reportedly committed $200 million. Investors such as Sequoia Capital have also pledged hundreds of millions of dollars in support. According to Cointelegraph, the supply of stablecoins on Ethereum has reached $180 billion, a record high. An Ethereum "diamond hand" deposited 4,000 ETH on Binance, currently experiencing a profit of $15.96 million. According to The Data Nerd, 14 hours ago, this steadfast Ethereum holder (a "diamond hand") deposited 4,000 ETH (worth approximately $16 million) on Binance. These ETH were accumulated nine years ago at an average cost of $10.25. If all were sold at the current price, he would realize a profit of approximately $15.96 million, a 389x return on investment (ROI). According to unfolded.com, the total amount of Ethereum (ETH) held by digital asset treasuries and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has increased to 12.5 million, accounting for 10.31% of the total supply of Ethereum. The Ethereum Foundation has deposited 2,400 ETH and approximately $6 million in stablecoins into Morpho's yield treasury. The Ethereum Foundation officially announced that it has deposited 2,400 ETH and approximately $6 million in stablecoins into Morpho's yield treasury today. OpenSea CEO @dfinzer announced plans to launch the SEA token in the first quarter of 2026. 50% of the supply will be allocated to the community, with over half allocated through initial claims. Both OGs and participants in the OpenSea rewards program will receive meaningful rewards. Furthermore, 50% of the revenue generated at launch will be used to purchase SEA tokens.
The launch of SEA will provide greater utility and will be deeply integrated with OpenSea, including the ability to stake SEA tokens against users' favorite tokens and collectibles. Previously, OpenSea was transitioning to a crypto trading aggregator, with crypto trading volume reaching $1.6 billion so far in October. Orochi Network Completes $8 Million in New Funding, with Participation from the Ethereum Foundation and Others. Orochi Network, a verifiable data infrastructure company, announced the completion of a new $8 million funding round, bringing its total funding to $20 million. The company focuses on building verifiable data infrastructure for the RWA (real-world asset) and stablecoin ecosystems, providing audit-grade systems that ensure data authenticity, security, and compliance. Investors include the Ethereum Foundation, MVentures Labs, and PlutusVc. CME Group Plans to Launch Contracts on Sports Events and Economic Indicators to Compete with Kalshi. CME Group plans to launch financial contracts tied to sports events and economic indicators by the end of the year. According to people familiar with the matter, this move will put the Chicago-based CME in direct competition with prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi and Polymarket have rapidly entered the mainstream financial market in recent years, gaining advisory support from Donald Trump Jr., son of President Trump. Coinbase Launches Stablecoin Payment Platform "Coinbase Business" On October 16, Coinbase, a publicly listed cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, announced the launch of its stablecoin payment platform, "Coinbase Business," which allows businesses to send and receive USDC stablecoins. Polymarket Launches Stock Price Prediction Marketplace Polymarket has launched a stock price prediction market, allowing users to predict and trade individual stock price trends.
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