Author: Coinbase Compiler: Felix, PANews
Looking ahead to 2025, the crypto market will usher in transformative growth. The maturity of the asset class continues to gain momentum as institutional adoption increases and use cases in various fields continue to expand. In the past year alone, spot ETFs have been approved in the United States, the tokenization of financial products has increased significantly, and stablecoins have grown significantly and further integrated into global payment frameworks.
Achieving this goal is not an easy task. While it is easy to view these successes as the result of years of hard work, more and more people believe that this is actually just the beginning of a long journey.
Considering that only a year ago, this asset class was still reeling from rising interest rates, regulatory crackdowns, and an uncertain path forward, the progress of cryptocurrencies is even more impressive. Despite all these challenges, cryptocurrencies have become a solid alternative asset, proving the resilience of cryptocurrencies.
However, from a market perspective, the 2024 uptrend does have some notable differences from previous bull cycles. Some of these are superficial: “Web3” is replaced by the more appropriate “onchain”. Others are more far-reaching: the demand for fundamentals has begun to replace the influence of narrative-driven investment strategies, in part due to increased institutional participation.
In addition, not only has Bitcoin’s dominance surged, but innovations in DeFi have also pushed the boundaries of blockchain—making the foundations of a new financial ecosystem within reach. Central banks and major financial institutions around the world are discussing how crypto can make asset issuance, trading, and record keeping more efficient.
Looking ahead, the current crypto space presents many promising developments. At the forefront of disruption, we are looking at decentralized peer-to-peer exchanges, decentralized prediction markets, and artificial intelligence (AI) agents equipped with crypto wallets. On the institutional side, there is huge potential in stablecoins and payments (bringing crypto and fiat banking solutions closer together), low-collateralized on-chain lending (facilitated by on-chain credit scoring), and compliant on-chain capital formation.
Despite high awareness of cryptocurrencies, the technology remains obscure to many due to its novel technical structure. But technological innovation is expected to change this as more projects focus on improving the user experience by abstracting blockchain complexity and enhancing smart contract functionality. Success in this regard could expand the accessibility of cryptocurrencies to new users.
Meanwhile, the United States has laid the foundation for clearer regulation in 2024, well ahead of the November election. This sets the stage for greater progress in 2025, potentially cementing the place of digital assets in mainstream finance.
As the regulatory and technological landscape evolves, the crypto ecosystem is expected to see significant growth as wider adoption drives the industry closer to achieving its full potential. 2025 will be a pivotal year, with breakthroughs and advances that will likely help shape the long-term trajectory of the crypto industry for decades to come.
Theme 1: 2025 Macro Roadmap
What the Fed Wants, What the Fed Needs
Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election was the most important crypto market catalyst in Q4 of 24, driving Bitcoin up 4-5 standard deviations (compared to the three-month average). But looking ahead, the short-term fiscal policy response will not be as meaningful as the long-term direction of monetary policy, especially with a critical moment coming for the Fed. However, separating the two may not be so easy. The Fed is expected to continue to ease monetary policy in 2025, but the pace may depend on the expansionary nature of the next set of fiscal policies. That’s because tax cuts and tariffs are likely to push inflation higher, and while the headline CPI has fallen to 2.7% year-over-year, the core CPI is still hovering around 3.3%, above the Fed’s target.
Either way, the Fed wants to keep inflation in check from current levels, which means prices need to rise, but slow down from now on to help achieve its other mandate, full employment. Households, on the other hand, have been asking for lower prices after experiencing the pain of rising prices over the past two years. However, while falling prices may be politically expedient, they risk falling into a vicious cycle that ultimately leads to a recession.
Nevertheless, a soft landing seems to be the base case for now, thanks to falling long-term interest rates and American Exceptionalism 2.0. At this point, the Fed’s rate cuts are just a formality, as credit conditions are already accommodative, which is a supportive backdrop for crypto performance over the next 1-2 quarters. At the same time, the next administration’s projected deficit spending (if realized) should translate into greater risk-taking (cryptocurrency purchases) as more dollars circulate in the economy.
The Most Crypto-Proactive U.S. Congress Ever
After years of struggling with regulatory ambiguity, the next U.S. legislative session could bring increased regulatory clarity to the crypto industry. The election sent a strong message to Washington that the public is unhappy with the current financial system and wants change. From a market perspective, bipartisan support for cryptocurrencies in both the House and Senate means that U.S. regulation could shift from a “headwind” to a “tailwind” in 2025.
A new element of the discussion is the possibility of building a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Following the Bitcoin Nashville conference, Senator Cynthia Lummis (WY) not only introduced the Bitcoin July 2024 Act, but also the Pennsylvania Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act. If passed, the latter would allow state treasurers to invest up to 10% of their general funds in Bitcoin or other crypto-based instruments. Michigan and Wisconsin already hold cryptocurrencies or crypto ETFs in their pension funds, with Florida not far behind. But creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve may face some challenges, such as legal limits on the amount of Bitcoin that can be held on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.
Meanwhile, the United States is not the only jurisdiction ready to make progress on regulation. The growth of global crypto demand is also changing the competitive landscape of regulation internationally. The European Union's Market for Crypto-Assets Regulation (or MiCA), which is being implemented in phases, provides a clear framework for the industry. Many G20 countries and major financial centers such as the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, and Singapore are also actively developing rules to accommodate digital assets to create a more favorable environment for innovation and growth.
Crypto ETF 2.0
The U.S. approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products and funds (ETPs and ETFs) is a watershed moment for the crypto economy, with net inflows of $30.7 billion since inception (about 11 months). This far exceeds the $4.8 billion (adjusted for inflation) that the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) attracted in its first year after its launch in October 2004. According to Bloomberg, this puts these instruments “in the top 0.1% of the roughly 5,500 new ETFs launched in the past 30 years.” ETFs have reshaped the market dynamics of BTC and ETH by establishing new demand anchors, driving Bitcoin’s dominance from 52% at the start of the year to 62% by November 2024. According to the latest 13-F filing, nearly every type of institution is now a holder of these products, including endowments, pension funds, hedge funds, investment advisors, and family offices. Meanwhile, the introduction of U.S.-regulated options on these products (in November 2024) could strengthen risk management and improve the cost-effectiveness of these assets. Looking ahead, the industry is focused on the possibility that issuers will expand the range of exchange-traded products to include other tokens such as XRP, SOL, LTC, and HBAR, although potential approvals may only have a positive impact on a limited group of assets in the short term. But of greater concern is what would happen if the SEC allowed ETFs to be pledged or removed the mandate for the creation and redemption of ETF shares in cash rather than in kind. The latter mandate introduces a settlement delay between when an authorized participant (AP) receives a buy or sell order and when the issuer can create or redeem the corresponding shares. This delay, in turn, creates a misalignment between the ETF share price on the screen and the actual net asset value (NAV).
Introducing in-kind creation and redemption would not only improve price consistency between the share price and the NAV, but also help narrow the spread of ETF shares. That is, participants (APs) would not need to quote cash above the trading price of Bitcoin, thereby reducing costs and improving efficiency. The current cash-based model also brings other effects associated with the continuous buying and selling of BTC and ETH, such as increased price volatility and triggering taxable results, which do not apply to physical transactions.
Stablecoins, the "killer application" of cryptocurrencies
In 2024, stablecoins achieved substantial growth, with the total market value increasing by 48% to $193 billion (as of December 1). Some market analysts believe that based on the current trajectory, the industry can grow to nearly $3 trillion in the next five years. While it may seem high, considering that this valuation is comparable to the size of the entire cryptocurrency today, this valuation only accounts for about 14% of the total US M2 supply of $21 trillion.
The next real wave of cryptocurrency adoption may come from stablecoins and payments, which could explain the surge in interest in the space over the past 18 months. Their ability to facilitate faster and cheaper transactions than traditional methods has led more and more payment companies to look to expand their stablecoin infrastructure, increasing the utilization of digital payments and remittances. In fact, we may soon see the main use case for stablecoins not just in transactions, but in global capital flows and commerce. However, in addition to broader financial applications, the ability of stablecoins to address the problem of the US debt burden has also attracted political interest.
As of November 30, 2024, the stablecoin market has completed nearly $27.1 trillion in transactions, almost three times the $9.3 trillion in the same 11 months of 2023. These include a large number of peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers and cross-border business-to-business (B2B) payments. Businesses and individuals are increasingly leveraging stablecoins like USDC to meet regulatory requirements and integrate extensively with payment platforms such as Visa and Stripe. Stripe acquired stablecoin infrastructure company Bridge for $1.1 billion in October 2024, the largest deal in the crypto industry to date.
The Tokenization Revolution
Tokenization continued to make significant progress in 2024, with tokenized real-world assets (RWA) growing from $8.4 billion at the end of 2023 to $13.5 billion (excluding stablecoins) as of December 1, 2024, an increase of more than 60%, according to rwa.xyz data. Forecasts from multiple analysts suggest that the industry could grow to at least $2 trillion and as much as $30 trillion over the next five years - a potential increase of nearly 50 times. Asset managers and traditional financial institutions such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are increasingly embracing the tokenization of government securities and other traditional assets on both permissioned and public blockchains, enabling near-instant cross-border settlement and 24/7 trading.
Institutions are experimenting with using such tokenized assets as collateral for other financial transactions, such as those involving derivatives, which can streamline operations (such as margin calls) and reduce risk. In addition, the RWA trend is expanding beyond assets such as U.S. Treasuries and money market funds, gaining traction in private credit, commodities, corporate bonds, real estate, and insurance. Ultimately, tokenization could simplify the entire portfolio construction and investment process by bringing it on-chain, although this may still be a few years away.
Of course, these efforts face a unique set of challenges, including fragmented liquidity across multiple chains and ongoing regulatory hurdles—although significant progress has been made on both fronts. Tokenization is expected to be a gradual and ongoing process; however, recognition of its advantages is clear. This period is the perfect time to experiment and ensure that businesses stay at the forefront of technological advancement.
DeFi Renaissance
DeFi is dead. Long live DeFi. DeFi suffered a major blow in the last cycle as some applications used token incentives to bootstrap liquidity, providing unsustainable returns. However, a more sustainable financial system has emerged that combines real-world use cases with transparent governance structures.
A shift in the U.S. regulatory landscape could revive the prospects for DeFi. This could include the establishment of a framework for managing stablecoins and a path for traditional institutional investors to participate in DeFi, especially as we see growing synergies between off-chain and on-chain capital markets. In fact, DEXs now account for about 14% of CEX volume, up from 8% in January 2023. In the face of a friendlier regulatory environment, there is an increasing likelihood that even decentralized applications (dApps) will share protocol revenue with token holders.
In addition, the role of cryptocurrencies in disrupting financial services has also been recognized by key figures. In October 2024, Federal Reserve Governor Christoper Waller discussed how DeFi can largely complement centralized finance (CeFi), arguing that distributed ledger technology (DLT) can make CeFi's record keeping faster and more efficient, while smart contracts can improve CeFi's capabilities. He also believes that stablecoins may be beneficial for payments and can be used as "safe assets" on trading platforms, although they require reserves to mitigate risks such as runs and illegal financing. All of this suggests that DeFi may soon expand beyond the crypto user base and begin to participate more in traditional finance (TradFi).
Theme 2: Disrupting Paradigms
Telegram Trading Bots: Crypto’s Hidden Profit Center
After stablecoins and native L1 transaction fees, Telegram trading bots became the most profitable space in 2024, even surpassing major DeFi protocols such as Aave and MakerDAO (now Sky) in terms of protocol net revenue. This is largely the result of increased trading and memecoin activity. In fact, meme tokens have been the best performing crypto track in 2024 (measured by total market capitalization growth), and trading activity for meme tokens (on Solana DEXs) has been surging throughout Q4 of 24.
Telegram bots are a chat-based interface for trading these tokens. Custodial wallets are created directly in the chat window and can then be funded and managed via buttons and text commands. As of December 1, 2024, bot users are primarily focused on Solana tokens (87%), followed by Ethereum (8%), and then Base (4%).
Like most trading interfaces, Telegram bots earn a percentage of each trade in fees, up to 1% of the trade amount. However, due to the volatility of the underlying assets they trade, users may not be deterred by high fees. As of December 1, the top-earning bot, Photon, has accumulated $210 million in year-to-date fees, close to the $227 million of Solana's largest memecoin emitter Pump. Other major bots, such as Trojan and BONKbot, also made impressive profits of $105 million and $99 million, respectively. In comparison, Aave's protocol revenue for the entire year of 2024 is $74 million after fees.
The appeal of these applications stems from their ease of use in DEX trading, especially for tokens that are not yet listed on an exchange. Many bots also offer additional features, such as "sniping" tokens at launch, and integrated price alerts. The Telegram trading experience is quite attractive to users, with nearly 50% of Trojan users staying for four days or more (only 29% of users stop using after one day), bringing in a high average revenue of $188 per user. While increasing competition among Telegram trading bots may eventually reduce trading fees, Telegram bots (and other core interfaces discussed below) will remain major profit centers through 2025.
Prediction Markets: Betting
Prediction markets could be one of the biggest winners of the 2024 US election, as platforms like Polymarket outperform polling data that predicted the outcome of the race much closer than the final result. This is a win for crypto more broadly, as prediction markets using blockchain show significant advantages over traditional polling data and demonstrate potential differentiated use cases for the technology. Not only do prediction markets demonstrate the transparency, speed, and global access that crypto offers, but their blockchain foundation also allows for decentralized dispute resolution and automated payment settlement based on outcomes.
While many believe the relevance of these dapps may fade after the election, their use has expanded to other sectors such as sports and entertainment. In the financial sector, they have proven to be more accurate indicators of sentiment than traditional surveys of economic data releases such as inflation and non-farm payrolls, which may continue to play a role and be relevant after the election.
Games
Games have long been a core theme in the crypto space due to the potentially transformative impact of on-chain assets and markets. However, attracting a loyal user base for crypto games (a hallmark of most traditional successful games) has been a challenge so far, as many crypto game users are profit-driven and may not play for fun. In addition, many crypto games are based on web browsers, often limiting the audience to cryptocurrency enthusiasts rather than the general public of gamers.
However, compared to the previous cycle, games that have integrated cryptocurrencies have made great progress. At the heart of this trend is a shift from the early cypherpunk ethos of "owning your game entirely on-chain" to selectively placing assets on-chain, thereby unlocking new features without affecting the gameplay itself. In fact, many prominent game developers now view blockchain technology more as a convenience tool than a marketing tool.
Off the Grid, a first-person shooter and battle royale game, is a prime example of this trend. At launch, the game’s core blockchain component (the Avalanche subnet) was still in testnet, despite the fact that it has become the number one free-to-play game on Epic Games. Its core appeal lies in its unique gameplay mechanics, rather than its blockchain tokens or item trading marketplace. Crucially, the game has also paved the way for crypto-integrated games to expand their distribution channels to gain wider market appeal, and is available on Xbox, Playstation, and PC (via the Epic Games Store).
Mobile devices are also an important distribution channel for crypto games, both native apps and embedded apps (such as Telegram mini-games). Many mobile games also selectively integrate blockchain components, with most activities actually running on centralized servers. Generally speaking, these games can be played without setting up any external wallets, reducing the entry friction and making them accessible to those who are not familiar with crypto.
The line between crypto and traditional games is likely to continue to blur. Upcoming mainstream “crypto games” will likely integrate with crypto rather than focus on crypto, emphasizing polished gameplay and distribution rather than game-to-earn mechanics. That is, while this could lead to wider adoption of cryptocurrency as a technology, it’s less clear how this will directly translate into demand for liquid tokens. In-game currencies will likely remain segregated across different games.
Decentralized Real World
Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePINs) can potentially change the distribution problem of the “real world” by bootstrapping the creation of a network of resources. That is, DePINs could theoretically overcome the initial economies of scale typically associated with such projects. DePIN projects range from computing power to cell towers to energy, and are creating a more resilient and cost-effective way to aggregate these resources.
The most notable example is Helium, which distributes tokens to individuals who provide local cellular hotspots. By issuing tokens to hotspot providers, Helium was able to launch coverage maps in large urban areas in the United States, Europe, and Asia without the overhead of building and distributing cell towers and without spending a lot of upfront capital. Instead, the motivation for early adopters is to gain early exposure and equity in the network itself through tokens.
The long-term revenue and sustainability of these networks should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. DePIN is not a panacea for resource allocation, as industry pain points can vary widely. For example, pursuing a decentralization strategy may not be appropriate for a certain industry, or it may only solve a small part of the problem in that industry. This space may have wide variations in network adoption, token utility, and revenue generated - all of which may be related to the underlying industries they target rather than the underlying technology networks they use.
Artificial Intelligence (AI), Real Value
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been a focus for investors in both traditional and crypto markets. However, the impact of AI on cryptocurrencies is multifaceted, and its narrative changes frequently. In its early stages, blockchain technology was designed to address the data provenance problem for AI-generated content and users (i.e., tracking the authenticity of data). AI-driven intent-driven architectures were also considered a potential improvement to the crypto user experience. Later, the focus shifted to decentralized training and computing networks for AI models, and crypto-driven data generation and collection. More recently, attention has focused on autonomous AI agents that can control crypto wallets and communicate through social media.
The full impact of AI on cryptocurrencies is unclear, as evidenced by the rapid cycle of narratives. However, this uncertainty does not diminish the potential transformation that AI could bring to cryptocurrencies, as AI technology continues to make new breakthroughs. AI applications are also becoming more accessible to non-technical users, which will further accelerate the development of creative use cases.
The big question is determining how these shifts manifest as lasting value accumulation in tokens versus company equity. For example, many AI agents run on legacy technology, and short-term "value accumulation" (i.e., market attention) flows to memecoins rather than any underlying infrastructure. While tokens associated with the infrastructure layer have also seen price increases, their usage growth has generally lagged behind price increases over the same period. The pace of price increases relative to network metrics reflects the lack of a strong consensus among investors on how to capture AI growth in cryptocurrencies.
Theme Three: Blockchain Metagame
Multi-chain future or zero-sum game?
A big theme returning from the last bull cycle is the popularity of L1s networks. Newer networks are increasingly competing to reduce transaction costs, redesign execution environments, and minimize latency. Even as premium blockspace remains scarce, L1 space has expanded to the point where general purpose blockspace is now in excess.
Additional blockspace is not necessarily more valuable in and of itself. However, a vibrant protocol ecosystem, coupled with an active community and dynamic crypto assets, can still earn certain blockchains additional fees. For example, Ethereum remains the epicenter of high-value DeFi activity, despite not improving its mainnet execution since 2021.
Nevertheless, investors are attracted to the potential for differentiated ecosystems on these new networks, even as the bar for differentiation is rising. High-performing chains like Sui, Aptos, and Sei are competing with Solana for market share.
Historically, trading on DEXs has been the largest driver of on-chain fees, which requires strong user onboarding, wallets, interfaces, and capital—creating a cycle of increasing activity and liquidity. This concentration of activity often leads to a winner-take-all situation across different chains. However, the future may still be multi-chain, as different blockchain architectures offer unique advantages that can meet a variety of needs. While application chains and L2s solutions can provide tailored optimizations and lower costs for specific use cases, a multi-chain ecosystem allows for specialization while still benefiting from the broader network effects and innovations of the entire blockchain space.
Upgrading L2s
Debate continues around Ethereum's rollup-centric roadmap despite the exponential growth in L2s' scaling capabilities. Criticisms include L2s' "extraction" of L1 activities, as well as their fragmented liquidity and user experience. In particular, L2s have been cited as the root cause of the Ethereum network's declining fees and the demise of the "ultrasonic currency" narrative. New focal points of the L2 debate are also gradually emerging, including decentralization trade-offs, different virtual machine environments (potential fragmentation of EVM), etc.
Nevertheless, L2s have achieved some success from the perspective of increasing block space and reducing costs. The introduction of blob transactions in the Ethereum Dencun (Deneb+Cancun) upgrade in March 2024 reduced the average L2 cost by more than 90% and increased the activity of Ethereum L2s by 10 times. In addition, multiple execution environments and architectures are able to be experimented in an ETH-based environment, which is a long-term advantage of the L2-centric approach.
However, this roadmap also has some drawbacks in the short term. Cross-rollup interoperability and general user experience have become more difficult to navigate, especially for newcomers who may not fully understand the differences between ETH's different L2s, or how to build bridges between them. In fact, while bridging speeds and costs have improved, the fact that users first need to interact with a cross-chain bridge degrades the overall on-chain experience.
While this is a real problem, the community is pursuing many different solutions, such as superchain interoperability in the Optimism ecosystem, real-time proofs and super transactions for zkRollups, resource locks, sorter networks, and more. Many of these challenges are being addressed at the infrastructure and network layers, and it may take time for these improvements to be reflected in the user interface.
Meanwhile, the growing Bitcoin L2 ecosystem is more difficult to navigate because there are no unified security standards and roadmaps. In contrast, Solana's "network expansion" tends to be more application-specific and may be less disruptive to current user workflows. Overall, L2s are being implemented in most major crypto ecosystems, although their forms vary greatly.
Everyone has a chain
The increasing ease of custom network deployment has prompted more and more applications and companies to build chains over which they have more control. Mainstream DeFi protocols such as Aave and Sky have clear goals to include blockchain releases in their long-term roadmaps, and the Uniswap team has also announced plans for a DeFi-focused L2 chain. Even more traditional companies are getting involved. Sony has announced plans for a new chain, Soneium.
As the blockchain infrastructure stack matures and becomes increasingly commoditized, owning block space is considered increasingly attractive - especially for regulated entities or applications with specific use cases. The technology stack that enables this is also changing. In previous cycles, application-centric chains have primarily leveraged Cosmos or Polkadot Substrate SDKs. In addition, the growing RaaS industry represented by companies such as Caldera and Conduit is driving more projects to release L2. These platforms facilitate easy integration with other services through their marketplaces. Similarly, Avalanche subnets may increase adoption due to its managed blockchain service AvaCloud, which simplifies the launch of custom subnets.
The growth of modular chains may have a corresponding impact on the demand for Ethereum blob space and other data availability solutions such as Celestia, EigenDA or Avail. Ethereum blob usage has reached saturation (3 blobs per block) since early November, an increase of more than 50% since mid-September. Demand does not appear to be slowing down, as existing L2s (like Base) continue to scale throughput and new L2s are launched on mainnet, though the upcoming Pectra upgrade in Q1’25 will likely increase the target blob count from 3 to 6.
Theme Four: User Experience
User Experience Improvements
A simple user experience is one of the most important drivers of mass adoption. While crypto has historically focused on deep technology, the focus is now rapidly shifting to a simplified user experience. In particular, there is a push across the industry to abstract the technical aspects of crypto into the background of applications. This shift has been made possible by a number of recent technical breakthroughs, such as the adoption of account abstraction to simplify onboarding and the use of session keys to reduce signing friction.
The adoption of these technologies will make the security components of crypto wallets (e.g., seed phrases and recovery keys) invisible to most end users — similar to the seamless security experience of today’s internet (e.g., https, OAuth, and keys). Expect to see more of the key login and in-app wallet integration trend in 2025. Early signs include key login for Coinbase Smart Wallet and Google integration login for Tiplink and Sui Wallet.
Abstractions in cross-chain architectures will likely continue to pose the biggest challenge to the crypto experience in the short term. Cross-chain abstractions, while still a focus of research at the network and infrastructure level (e.g., ERC-7683), remain far from front-end applications. Improvements in this area require enhancements at both the smart contract application level and the wallet level. Protocol upgrades are necessary to unify liquidity, while wallet improvements are necessary to provide a clearer experience for users. The latter will ultimately be more important to expanding adoption, although current research efforts and industry debates are focused on the former.
Owning the Interface
The most critical shift to the crypto user experience will come from efforts to "own" the user relationship through better interfaces. This will happen in two ways. The first is improvements to the standalone wallet experience as described above. Onboarding processes are becoming increasingly streamlined to meet user needs. Integrating applications (e.g., trading and lending) directly within a wallet may also lock users into a familiar ecosystem.
At the same time, applications are also increasingly competing for user relationships by abstracting blockchain technology components into the background through integrated wallets. This includes trading tools, games, on-chain social and membership applications that automatically provide wallets for users who sign up through familiar means such as Google or Apple OAuth. Once logged in, on-chain transactions are funded through payers, whose costs are ultimately borne by the application owner. This creates a unique dynamic in which revenue per user needs to be aligned with the cost of paying for its on-chain operations. Although the latter cost continues to decrease as blockchains scale, it also forces crypto applications to consider which data components are submitted on-chain.
Overall, there will be fierce competition to attract and retain users in the crypto space. As shown by the average revenue per user (ARPU) of the Telegram trading bot mentioned above, many retail crypto traders tend to be relatively price-insensitive compared to existing TradFi entities. In the coming year, expect building user relationships to become a focus for protocols beyond the trading space as well.
Decentralized Identity
As regulatory clarity continues to improve and more assets are tokenized off-chain, streamlining KYC and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) processes is becoming increasingly important. For example, certain assets are only available to qualified investors located in certain regions, making identification and authentication a core pillar of the long-term on-chain experience.
There are two key components to this. The first is creating the on-chain identity itself. The Ethereum Name Service (ENS) provides a standard for resolving a human-readable ".eth" name to one or more wallets across chains. Variations of this now exist in networks such as Basenames and the Solana Name Service. With major traditional payment providers like PayPal and Venmo now supporting ENS address resolution, adoption of these core on-chain identity services has accelerated.
The second core component is building attributes for on-chain identities. This includes confirming jurisdictional data that KYC verification and other protocols can then look at to ensure compliance. At the heart of this technology is the Ethereum Attestation Service, a flexible service that entities can use to attribute other wallets. These attributes are not limited to KYC, they can be freely extended to meet the needs of the attestor. For example, Coinbase's on-chain verification uses this service to confirm that a wallet is associated with a user who has a Coinbase trading account and is located in certain jurisdictions. Some of the new permissioned lending markets on Base for real-world assets will use these verifications to control usage.