Consensus Essay: A consensus conference with the least consensus

Written by: Haotian

Share a short essay about the Hong Kong Consensus Conference:

1) Like the previous meetings, many people were running around the side events around the main venue. In addition to being unfamiliar with the HK map, running meetings + making dinner appointments, the whole person's legs and feet were broken, and the physical fatigue was beyond words. But that's nothing, the mental level is even more tiring, and the stumbling continues. When will it end?

2) Even in such a big environment, there are still a lot of people at large and small events. From an emotional point of view, it's not bearish at all. Perhaps most people come for "emotional value". In fact, the most popular is basically the Solana ecosystem, and the events are all packed and can shock Sir. In comparison, the related activities of Ethereum, BTC layer2, etc. are much bleak. I can only say that it is a mess, and they were once glorious;

3) Although it is a consensus conference, after more people have come into contact with it, they feel that this is the consensus conference with the least "consensus"? The "consensus" of the entire industry is being seriously torn apart. The technical narrative PVE consensus is sad under the MEME narrative PVP consensus, the diamond hand Holder's diamond hand consensus is ashamed to speak under the young P young player's Trader consensus, and the old team's technical build consensus is out of tune with some marketing Tokenomics outstanding topic projects, etc. It seems that the consensus is divided, but behind it is actually the collapse of the "unified" values ​​of the industry. After Consensus, I am afraid that Polarization will become the norm;

4) Many old people in the currency circle have responded that "the market environment has changed". In fact, the market must not be wrong, but the old leeks' past "empiricism" is no longer useful. Old leeks use the logic of the bull-bear conversion in the past two cycles to speculate in coins, but they find that the four-year cycle conversion has failed. The market defines the bull market around the hot narrative, which comes like the wind and goes without a trace. When you are still swearing that the bull market has just begun, the bull market has already ended;

5) There is no need to complain that it has become difficult to make money in the market. In fact, it is just that the audience for making money has changed, and the model and logic of making money have changed. There are now a lot of market assets, and market attention (Mindshare) controls liquid wealth. The young post-00s P youngsters who can stay up late dare to rush, run when they make money, have energy and courage, and have become the lucky ones in this round of PVP narratives. In comparison, the old leeks have diamond hands PVE ’s thinking has no chance of winning. However, at the end of every PVP wealth feast, a large amount of liquidity is withdrawn, and it is not clear how long such a squid game can last;

6) I can feel the loneliness of a group of builders who adhere to the idealism of technical narrative. This kind of frustration is different from the past. In the words of an old OG, the technical roadmap has been implemented step by step, TGE has been held as required, the community has been maintained, and the narrative has been continuously updated in combination with hot spots, but the coin price just can’t be lifted. If those who do things with idealism do not get the corresponding gifts from the market for a long time, does it mean that the power of innovation is exhausted? If the currency circle loses the idealistic geek spirit, what kind of spirit should the Crypto industry use to hedge against the casino stigmatization of the outside world. What, don’t even need to disguise?

7) The people on the AI ​​Agent car are basically trapped miserably, but most people still firmly believe in the future of AI + Crypto narrative. I have always emphasized that leaving aside the short-term AI Agent The key to the application value of AI Agent is the activation value of the consolidation of the old narratives of layer2, ZK, modularization, chain abstraction, etc. It can give the old narrative a new build direction and make the infra that is not grounded possible to be applied in advance. In short, the sacrifice brought by the current bubble burst of AI Agent is not worth mentioning compared with the reconstruction value of the future major blood transfusion of the bottoming industry;

8) The operating logic of the secondary market has completely changed. BTC is the only one hanging in the sky with ETF OTC funds dragging the bottom. ETH, SOL, and BSC are fighting each other at the ecological niche level. But no matter how they fight, the market unanimously believes that there is no overall rise in the cottage season. What kind of locomotive you choose determines what kind of results you can harvest. Once you make a wrong choice, the result will be embarrassing, for example, if you are unfortunate enough to stand on the layer2 team.

9) The on-chain world has become the hope of most people in the cryptocurrency circle, but compared with the difficulty of making money in the CEX secondary market, the pure speed pass PVP environment on the chain is also challenging for most audiences. After the chaotic era, the on-chain world must be reshaped from the entire chain, including asset issuance, community cohesion, CEX connection, and technology application. Obviously, an on-chain story without asset issuance threshold restrictions and continuous technological innovation empowerment cannot truly change the Crypto world.