Crazy hoarding of 550,000 Bitcoins: MicroStrategy may outperform BTC in 2025

Author: Matt Crosby; Bitcoin Magzine Pro Compiler: BitpushNews

With Bitcoin showing a steady upward momentum recently, it is necessary to pay attention to a highly leveraged investment target that is highly tied to the long-term bullish logic of BTC - MicroStrategy (MSTR, Micro Strategy, recently renamed Strategy). This article will deeply analyze the scale of Strategy's Bitcoin hoarding, evaluate its risk and return potential, and explore whether this stock will outperform Bitcoin itself in the future. At present, multiple indicators are converging, and capital rotation may have begun, which may become a key turning point for investors.

Bitcoin reserves soared to 550,000

According to the data of "Treasury Company Analytics" (analysis of Bitcoin holdings of listed companies), it can be clearly seen that the speed at which "Strategy" has accumulated Bitcoin in recent months is amazing.

The company started the year with approximately 386,700 bitcoins and now holds more than 550,000 bitcoins, an astonishing growth that suggests a clear and deliberate strategy to get ahead of potential breakouts.

Figure 1: Strategy's Acquisitions, P&L, and Average Bitcoin Cost Basis

Led by Michael Saylor, this acquisition was methodical, with billions of dollars invested in Bitcoin through regular weekly purchases using dollar-cost averaging.

The company's average acquisition cost is close to $68,500, which means that the current profit calculated by market value is close to $15 billion. Its total investment has now reached approximately $37.9 billion. Strategy is now not only the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, but also a core participant in this bull market, and may even redefine the market landscape.

BTC/MSTR ratio indicates the potential explosive power of MSTR

Instead of just comparing the US dollar price trends of Bitcoin and MSTR, it is better to measure BTC's performance directly in terms of Strategy shares. This ratio can more clearly reveal the relative strength of the two. Figure 2: If the BTC/MSTR ratio falls below this key level, it could signal a period of sustained outperformance for Strategy. Currently, the BTC/MSTR ratio is trading at a key historical support level, matching the lows set at the bottom of the 2018-2019 bear market. If this level is broken, it could indicate that Strategy is about to begin a period of sustained strength relative to Bitcoin itself. Conversely, a bounce from this support level would mean that Bitcoin could regain dominance and offer a better risk-reward in the short to medium term.

This chart is worth keeping a close eye on in the coming weeks. If the ratio is confirmed to break down, market funds may rotate to Strategy on a large scale, especially those institutional investors who want to obtain high-beta Bitcoin exposure through the open market.

MSTR price target: If Bitcoin rises to $150,000, MSTR may reach $1,200-1,600

Although it is unrealistic to accurately predict market trends, we can make reasonable deductions based on Strategy's current coin hoarding speed and the law of Bitcoin cycles. At the current pace, Strategy's Bitcoin reserves may reach 700,000 to 800,000 by the end of 2025. Assuming that Bitcoin climbs to $150,000 (the peak level generally expected by the market) in this cycle, and Strategy's stock price maintains a 2.5 to 3 times price-to-book ratio premium (the historical high was 3.4 times), its target price may fall in the range of $1,200 to $1,600.

This calculation shows that Strategy's upside potential has a significant asymmetric advantage, especially against the backdrop of Bitcoin's continued strength. Of course, this forecast relies on the premise that the market is bullish overall, but even in a more conservative scenario, Strategy may still show better return elasticity than BTC, although with greater volatility.

Figure 3: Predicted potential "Strategy" company stock price.

High Beta Properties: MSTR’s “Accelerator” Effect in a Bull Market

To further strengthen this argument, we can compare the historical dollar cost averaging performance of Bitcoin and Strategy shares.

Using the “Dollar Cost Average Strategies” tool, we can see that if $10 was invested in Bitcoin every day for the past five years, the total investment would be $18,260, which is now worth more than $61,000. This is a remarkable result that outperforms almost all other asset classes, including gold, which has also recently soared to a record high. Figure 4: Bitcoin has outperformed other major asset classes with a $10 per day investment over the past 5 years. If the same $10 per day strategy were applied to Strategy shares (since its first purchase of Bitcoin in August 2020), the total investment would be $11,850. The position is now worth about $108,000, significantly outperforming Bitcoin over the same time window.

This suggests that while Bitcoin remains the underlying investment logic, Strategy offers greater upside for investors willing to tolerate volatility.

Figure 5: A $10 daily investment in MSTR has outperformed Bitcoin since August 2020.

It is important to recognize that Strategy is actually a high-beta instrument pegged to Bitcoin. This correlation amplifies gains, but also losses.

If Bitcoin enters a prolonged correction, say a 50% to 60% decline, Strategy shares could fall even more. This is not just hypothetical. In previous cycles, MSTR has exhibited extreme volatility, both up and down. Investors considering it as part of their allocation must be comfortable with higher volatility and the risk of a deeper correction during periods of general Bitcoin weakness.

Conclusion: Is MSTR the best proxy for a Bitcoin bull run in 2025?

So, is Strategy worth including in a diversified, crypto-centric portfolio? The answer is yes, but with caution. Given its high correlation to Bitcoin, Strategy offers higher upside potential through leverage, and historical returns have proven to outperform BTC itself in recent years. However, this advantage comes at the cost of greater risk, especially during periods of market turmoil.

Currently, the BTC/MSTR ratio is at a technical turning point: if it falls below support, Strategy may enter a strong phase; if it rebounds, Bitcoin may still be a better choice in the short term. In any case, both assets are worth continued attention. If this round of bull market enters a new round of acceleration, institutional funds are likely to flow into BTC and its most well-known stock proxy, Strategy. This capital rotation may come quickly and violently, and those who plan ahead may reap rich rewards.