Cryptocurrency investors should strive for self-improvement: A list of crypto purchases over 26 years.

Author: Da Yu Source: X, @BTCdayu

I didn't sleep a wink last night, tears soaked my sheets. I shouted at the night sky, "Is the crypto world destined to keep trading these garbage coins? If so, they'll all die together, and there won't be any survivors left!"

I think I should do some user education, telling everyone, especially newbies, which coins are still worth buying and which are not—because only when we refuse to eat shit can we force the crypto world to develop healthily, and only then can we force the big players to realize that feeding people shit is no longer profitable, and they need to find ways to create truly useful and profitable projects. Only then will the crypto world have a future!

I will use the most cautious language possible, so that readers can profit rather than lose money.

I will use the most cautious language possible, so that readers can profit as much as possible, rather than lose money.

I. Current Situation and Coin Selection Logic

The current cryptocurrency market mainly revolves around two things: "creating shit" and "feeding shit":

Creating shit involves project teams without profitability telling a story, spending some money, getting listed on some exchanges, and then waiting for retail investors to take over. They exploit VCs and retail investors through market making and other methods. Only the exchanges actually profit. Therefore, this kind of operation will inevitably lead to the industry's demise.

This approach used to work because the cryptocurrency market is a big casino; we just needed an opportunity to make money.

Back then, there were very few coins, and everyone lacked investment experience. There was no concept of high or low valuations; it was all about rushing in. With people rushing in, prices fluctuated, some made money, and some lost money—that's how it was.

Back then, we didn't understand, but we had beautiful dreams, truly believing the crypto world was changing the future. But now, seeing the booming development of AI and US stocks, while we're arguing heatedly about which exchange to list, we finally understand how laughable, pathetic, and pathetic we were in the crypto world. Why doesn't this approach work now? Because there are too many coins now. Those with connections follow Binance, handling everything from token issuance and marketing to listing on Binance; those without connections don't need to worry either, they can launch on PUMPFUN and then sell their worth on Twitter. The number of cryptocurrencies has increased 100,000 times in the past 5 years, but the growth in the number of users has peaked. Binance's annual report states that one in every 20+ users uses Binance, which is good for Binance, but it's also why the industry is starting to feel unsustainable. New user growth is ultimately declining, and problems will arise when there are fewer and fewer new users. We can't expect anyone to do something; that's incredibly foolish—who cares about the barking of a stray dog ​​when the rich are feasting? People need to be self-reliant, and the crypto world needs to be self-reliant. The first step to self-reliance is to have fewer people buying into worthless cryptocurrencies. Next, I'll move from "how to choose" to "what to choose," providing an article that will help you navigate the crypto world with ease and confidence.

I'm here, let's do it!

II. Several Evaluation Principles

I will explain this part in detail, which may be a bit difficult for beginners to read. Although I recommend that you read it carefully and understand it sooner or later, if you don't understand it now, you can skip to Part III to see the list of coins.

1. There must be revenue

If a cryptocurrency project doesn't have real revenue and users, what is the purpose of its coin? How can it empower this coin? It's useless. It's listed on a major exchange, just waiting for you to take over, and then you expect the idiots in the next group to take over your losses?

Stop! Don't play with projects like this anymore.

When a new project comes out, don't listen to their hype about terms you don't understand. Even if you understand giants like Apple and Tesla, you don't need to know a bunch of letters and strange terms, right? A project with no revenue and no users is basically garbage. Don't care about their background or which exchange they're listed on—because those backgrounds and exchanges are there to fleece you, not to make you rich. Remember: the bigger the background, the more they fleece you. 2. It needs to have growth potential. Just looking at revenue and user numbers isn't enough. Project teams now understand that they need to inflate numbers. Back in the day, the four kings of L2 blockchain were amazing, their data was incredible. And what happened? Once they stopped inflating numbers, they became ghost towns, and some haven't even issued their own tokens yet. Therefore, we need to use common sense to determine long-term development potential, not just look at the data. The current cryptocurrency market is such that if a project is innovative, a bunch of copycat projects immediately appear, some with backing, some without. Everyone is using token issuance to attract people to participate in the hype, creating a false sense of prosperity. If you want to make money, learn from the experts who profit from the hype, and do it yourself, don't be a sucker. Truly promising projects are those where people actually use the tokens after the hype is complete, or even those that don't require hype at all—no points, no manipulation, just free access. Some say this is a characteristic of Web3, but Web2 projects didn't require hype; they were all successful projects. Why? Consider it from a common-sense perspective: people who genuinely want to build a project don't want fake data. What impressed me most about Wang Xing of Meituan was his success in winning over thousands of group-buying websites. While others were fabricating data and traffic, boasting figures many times greater than Meituan's, Wang Xing insisted on refusing to manipulate data, such as raising prices before discounting. He believed the market was huge and wanted to provide higher-quality products, which ultimately led to his victory – he made the right choice. What about buying on the secondary market? Let's go back to the principles mentioned in this section and compare and evaluate them. If you're buying on the secondary market, you need to know who's promoting the project, your cost must be lower than the market average, you need to assess whether there are more fools willing to take the plunge, and you need to know when to take profits. Newbies who don't understand anything shouldn't follow my method. You don't understand evaluation and dynamic observation; just buy Bitcoin. 3. The Coin Must Be Useful. No matter how much money a project makes, if the coin isn't a stock and you're not a shareholder, it's still garbage; don't touch it. Because in this situation, the coin is just a speculative commodity, unrelated to the project's fundamentals, relying entirely on the actions of fools. For example, if a top overseas influencer says, "I'm bullish on ZEC," everyone rushes in. In this case, those who believe and rush in first make money. As for the project itself—no revenue, the coin's uselessness, etc.—don't bother researching that; believe first, get burned later. But if there's no revenue and the coin is useless, and you still buy in, you'll definitely wonder: "Why did it stop rising as soon as I bought in?" Therefore, for a long-term perspective, we need to return to these principles: How much money does the project make? Does it have a future? Is the coin pegged to the stock price? 4. How to Calculate Earnings and Coin Price? Let's take HYPE, the leading altcoin in the perpetual contract sector, as an example. Incidentally, this is the best altcoin project in the crypto world, but if you bought it for over $50, aren't you now regretting it? The estimation method in this section is suitable for beginners to study carefully. For example, if I decide to buy HYPE, how do I evaluate this project with revenue, users, and future potential? First step: Look at how much money it's currently making and its total market capitalization. If HYPE earns $2 billion a year, and its total market capitalization is $20 billion, then we can assume that total market capitalization/revenue = 10, and the coin price is around $20. Referring to tech stocks, a PE ratio of 10 isn't high, indicating it might be okay. But now that he hasn't earned $2 billion a year, wouldn't a price below $20 seem reasonable? But why did it rise above $50? This part is detached from fundamentals, for many reasons, mainly: —He's a leader, and leaders are more prone to FOMO, so the price rises, especially since there's a lot of gullible money in the crypto market. —He uses 100% of his revenue to buy back tokens, resulting in a thin order book with $2 million in daily buy orders. As long as there aren't many sellers on a given day, the price is likely to rise. Therefore, reaching $50 is very reasonable in a bull market. But is it a good time to buy now? We need to consider some new internal variables: For example, team tokens have started unlocking. Although daily buybacks are still ongoing, if $10 million worth of tokens are unlocked while $2 million worth are bought back, you can understand that the daily selling pressure is $8 million. HYPE's current situation is that the selling pressure far exceeds the buyback pressure. In addition, we need to consider external variables: The first variable: External competition is intensifying. For example, LIGHTER and others have similar team backgrounds, financial strength, and institutional investment. HYPE is like COINBASE, while LIT is somewhat like ROBINHOOD; there's also CZ's ASTER and a bunch of new perpetual contracts. This leads to a problem: external competition is getting stronger, and is this competition effective? Yes, it is. Looking directly at on-chain data, HYPE's market dominance has been significantly reduced. Moreover, the competition will only intensify, making things more difficult. If you're looking for a girlfriend, and she's initially a goddess, suddenly five more women jump out, also wanting to be your girlfriend, and they're even fighting each other—one trying to steal your heart, the other trying to steal your peach. You'd better not jump in yet, or you might choose the wrong person… The second variable: Limited existing funds, and it's still uncertain who will get the incremental funds. The existing funds in the crypto market are limited; that is, there are only so many people and so much money in the crypto market right now. What is the maximum size of this combination of smart money and naive money? I think using Trump as an anchor for assessment is relatively accurate, around $70 billion, and then there's no more money. The perpetual contract sector doesn't have nearly as much interest and buying power as Trump, so its potential market capitalization is likely around 40-50 billion. This is roughly the market capitalization of HYPE around the time of its correction. Now, with fierce competition, similar to the battle between Meituan and JD.com, everyone's stock is falling, and coupled with the bear market, a total market capitalization of around 30 billion is reasonable. With a total market capitalization of 30 billion: If there are only one or two listed companies, then a leading company could reach 25 billion. What if there are 10 listed companies? What percentage would the leading company represent? Therefore, if it's just internal competition within the crypto space, there aren't many ways to make money: mainly by exploiting projects that haven't yet issued their own tokens, but there will definitely be counter-exploitation later, so not participating isn't necessarily a bad thing; secondly, look at which project can capture the most traffic from the future US stock market's blockchain integration. If the crypto market stops exploiting retail investors and starts exploiting US stock market retail investors, then that project will succeed. 5. Summary In short: to avoid buying a coin, you need to consider how much money it can make now, how much it can make in the future, how much of that money will be used to drive up the price, and how intense the internal and external competition is. III. Coin Selection List Catching three or four coins in a market cycle is enough to turn your fortunes around, but making a mistake with just one can lead to huge losses. This list is certainly not exhaustive; there may be some decent projects I haven't included, as I wrote this article on an empty stomach. I'll update the list in the comments section if I think of anything else. Feel free to recommend good projects in the comments—but regardless of who recommends them, don't make your own judgments, including the coins I've selected. You should refer to the models I've outlined above—they aren't universal formulas and may be somewhat mechanical and not applicable to certain projects, such as the upward logic of public chains. However, the overall goal is to avoid making poor decisions. Note: Always read the description of the coins. Just because I've listed a coin's name doesn't mean you can buy it now! Good projects also need good prices! You need to use the valuation method I mentioned above. For example, the method above allowed me to buy HYPE at 10 and sell it at 30-50 (the buying and selling logic is explained in detail in my group; this isn't just me bragging). Now let's begin. 1. BTC Newcomers might not look at it, but if you could only choose one coin in the crypto world, it would definitely be this one. Although it doesn't seem to be rising now, it might reach 200,000 very quickly in the future. If you're a complete beginner with no knowledge, buying coins for 80,000-90,000 now won't be a bad deal. Take this first, and while you frantically learn more, buy smaller amounts of other coins; you can't go wrong. 2. ETH The biggest future development in the crypto world comes from institutions putting US stocks and bonds on the blockchain. After that, Wall Street and US retail investors can play on-chain stocks. This is ETH's biggest advantage, making it the second largest cryptocurrency. However, I've never been particularly interested in it, so I don't hold much personally. I've also researched US stocks, and if viewed as a tech stock, using my model above, it's not very good. ETH has a market capitalization of hundreds of billions, with unlimited issuance. Those who stake will receive more and more coins, making buying this coin somewhat like taking over a losing position. I personally don't think it's worthwhile. Those who are bullish on it now are very FOMO-driven, thinking it's a revolutionary innovation and a great thing, but I'm unsure if the price has sufficient certainty. For example, its market capitalization is currently higher than Musk's space company SPACE, which makes a lot of money every year and is expected to make even more. SPACE plans to build a base on Mars, transforming Earthlings into a multi-planetary race, and mining vast amounts of gold and other energy resources in outer space. Given a similar price, I would definitely buy SPACE. This recent surge in ETH's price is mainly due to top institutions in both the East and West simultaneously promoting and buying it. However, ETH's fundamentals won't change because of this. If you believe it, get on board early and find a good entry point to exit when the price is right. Having the money in your own hands is the most important thing. Regarding the future outlook for ETH, such as becoming a base for on-chain finance, I agree. However, I only consider how much money ETH can generate, how much ETH that money can buy back, and how much buying power it can bring. Otherwise, it's still just a game of emotions and consensus—something I, as the person who has made the most money in this field, am very proficient in. My choice is that I won't gamble on this worthless thing with the big players on such a large issue. You shout, you play, you make money. 3. BNB $BNB is still the best among all CEX platform tokens. However, I no longer recommend it. The future belongs to the on-chain era. In 5 years, the largest trading venue may no longer be Binance, but on-chain exchanges. As a BNB holder, the old way of holding BNB and receiving token airdrops was a win-win situation. Now, it's just repeatedly eating shit, which is meaningless. Furthermore, Binance's business model involves constantly attracting new users, and the combination of futures contracts and low-value coins creates a zero-sum game that inevitably declines after its peak. However, note that I'm not saying BNB can rise. High control and the presence of the wealthiest institutions in the crypto world will definitely lead to a rise, but it's no longer my ideal target. If I had to choose between ETH and BNB, I would definitely choose ETH, but I didn't choose ETH. As for $OKB, its short-term gains are a classic example, but without any acquisition or empowerment, it's best to temporarily categorize it as a low-value coin. 4. Other public chains: For now, there's not much to consider, including SOL and other coins. Many have experienced extremely rapid issuance. For example, SOL's price has fallen significantly, but its market capitalization is roughly the same as its peak. If MEME is no longer viable, I'll temporarily stop investing in it. Public blockchains are likely to become important but not very profitable infrastructure because if you extract a lot of funds, many people will leave, the speed will be fast, and zero-cost free use will become the standard. 5. MEME Coins I suggest not buying any MEME coins for now. Anyone currently promoting any MEME coin, trying to find a angle, is basically saying, "Come and eat my shit." I don't see any opportunities for them right now. If you want to gamble, do it in moderation, like buying a scratch-off lottery ticket—it's fun, no problem. Next, let's talk about altcoins. 99.99% of altcoins are garbage with no income and no future. I've picked out a few that you can slowly buy small amounts of; holding them long-term shouldn't result in losses—ideally, you should know how to use the valuation method in the second paragraph to find a suitable price. I can only tell you about good targets, not good prices—because when you look at the models above for each coin, you need to look at the coin itself, and also dynamically monitor external competition and the external environment. Basically, even good projects require continuous monitoring. What if you don't want to monitor the market? Buy BTC! After buying, go play, go to work, what's there to watch? 6. On-Chain Perpetual Track This track is a real casino, with revenue and buybacks. The biggest future opportunity comes from external traffic, namely Wall Street institutions and US stock retail investors. This is relatively simple. I've said a lot above. I think that around 10, unless there are major problems or too strong competitors, it shouldn't be difficult to be trapped at this price for long. The selling pressure from unlocking over the next year or so is significant. Many retail investors hope the team won't sell, which is an unethical and selfish thought. Team members deserve a reward, and selling would be even better—if you truly believe in the stock, you shouldn't be hoping they won't sell, but rather hoping for a lower price. LIT is a direct competitor to HYPE in this sector, and even has greater advantages, simply because it entered the market later. Both teams have the same top-tier quantitative trading background and are full of talent, but HYPE only targets smart money and whales, catering to large investors and institutions; LIT is more like a ROBINHOOD platform, targeting retail investors. HYPE operates without venture capital and focuses on community building; LIT, on the other hand, has partnered with Castle Market Maker and Robinhod for investment. The founder and Robinhod's owner are classmates and from the same hometown, sharing a close relationship. LIT operates with Wall Street institutional and compliant practices. Architecturally, HYPE has its own chain and ecosystem, closed within the HYPE world; LIT is an open ETH ecosystem, capable of directly accepting all RWA assets in the future. For example, billions borrowed on AAVE can be used directly in the LIT system under ETH's security guarantee (even if LIT ceases operation, the assets remain yours, which is great). LIT's cost per unit is approximately 0.5 USDT, so a price below 2 USDT in the future would be attractive. For those looking to invest in the sustainable blockchain sector now, LIT is only 1/10 the size of HYPE, but its growth potential may be greater. However, it's important to note that, similar to HYPE a year ago, LIT will need to be reassessed when a large amount of tokens are unlocked a year later. Altcoins require dynamic monitoring. Currently, I believe LIT offers significantly better value than HYPE within a year. However, the risk for $LIT lies in market share acquisition. The most optimistic scenario (which AI considers highly probable) is that Robinhood's on-chain order book will directly use LIT, with its own public chain serving as a settlement layer. However, it's unclear how much Robinhood invested in LIT or what percentage of its stake it holds. A large stake would be beneficial; the initial valuation in that round was around $1.5 billion, and the current market capitalization is over $2 billion. But be wary, these are optimistic expectations from the community, and even if they come true, it's still too early to tell. Furthermore, the probability of this happening is uncertain, and these are all significant risk factors for beginners. As for ASTER, I think it's a garbage project, 99% likely to fail. I've said this before; Binance trying to support a puppet to promote high-risk tokens is doomed to fail—I think I might be biased here, but I don't see any advantage ASTER has. It's not compliant, it has high-risk tokens; it's compliant, it has LIT. Of course, from a sector perspective, perpetual tokens seem to have passed their prime and are no longer the best choice. If you're buying LIT now, I suggest going directly to this exchange; other exchanges have too little liquidity. Newcomers please note: Unless you've done extensive research, please don't buy high-risk tokens like $LIT. You lack the ability to continuously track them and don't know how to value them. My articles aren't specifically for you, so please only buy BTC, remember that!

I. Predicting Sectors

1. POLYMARKET: You can start with small amounts to play around and make some small profits. This is suitable for beginners. Experienced investors and large funds are currently selling equity worth $12 billion off-exchange. I think it's worth buying; there's high potential for returns and growth.

2. Other prediction markets: These are all copycats and useless.

These kinds of projects can be launched with just a million dollars in funding in Nanshan, then listed on major exchanges without any empowerment or profit-taking. Billions are poured into them. If you want to play, try to get in at low cost. If you want to buy, believe in the hype first, then sell later, and be quick to exit.

The prediction sector is a very strong sector, not a pure zero-sum game. I think it will be even bigger than perpetual markets in the future.

II. DeFi Sector

$AAVE is a very good target, although its price is still very high. To assess its valuation, you only need to look at its annual earnings and market capitalization. I'm too lazy to check here, but its PE ratio is much higher than its HYPE ratio, roughly like this.

Therefore, this is a target worth tracking and monitoring in the long term. However, its risk lies in the future integration of US stocks and bonds onto the blockchain; how much will it benefit from this? BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase will handle their own lending—brokerages all have lending capabilities, and they will definitely do on-chain lending in the future.

AAVE is listed as a good target because it is the best target in the DeFi sector of our cryptocurrency circle. It has been safe for many years, holds hundreds of billions of dollars in assets, engages in on-chain lending, is very active and stable, has stable income, and its token also has some utility.

However, all altcoins carry risks! Dynamic monitoring is necessary, and newcomers should be extremely cautious. This is the only one I can think of for now. ONDO and similar tokens are security tokens with top-tier backgrounds, but the tokens are currently useless, with a large amount still awaiting unlocking. Furthermore, once US stocks are blockchain-enabled, this project may no longer be able to provide the necessary support, so the uncertainty is quite high. Thirdly, the AI ​​sector. $VIRTUAL is a project that also generates revenue, and the team is very resilient. I really like this young team; they seem to be one of the few teams that continues to explore new things and work hard for the token, navigating bull and bear markets – truly remarkable. However, I find it difficult to value this project because the uncertainty is extremely high; estimating it based on revenue alone is not feasible.

But it's worth keeping an eye on long-term. Consider buying some after a big drop, it's a good project, but I can't say for sure what a good price will be.

$WLD , this coin is currently facing significant problems with offline expansion, and the selling pressure from expansion will continue. Keep an eye on it long-term. It's still early for returns, and there's a lot of selling pressure, but it's a good project, especially since it's run by the boss of OPENAI.

IV. Privacy Coins

ZEC is very popular, but I think it's better to wait for a bear market, until it drops to 100 or something. Right now, it's mainly big names promoting it, and fools are buying in. The future belongs to compliance. Even powerful figures like Maduro have been arrested for non-compliance, so what's the point of privacy?

Believe first, then sell; strive to believe first. If you can't believe first, then don't believe. Missing out won't kill you. That's all I can think of for now. I'll add more in the comments later. Finally, some might say, "There aren't many coins, so there's nothing to do?" If you want to throw money away, there are 1 billion coins waiting for you to buy. But if you don't want to throw money away, buy good coins first. Then, within six months, more and more people in the crypto world will buy US stock assets, many of which offer short-term 5-10x returns. And even if you get stuck, holding on often recovers your losses. In the future, all exchanges, especially on-chain exchanges, will be full of US stock assets. Why are you in such a hurry to eat shit?