Harris has been active recently, and the predictions of her winning rate on the gambling platform have been continuously improved. Can this "full buff" candidate successfully win the US election? This article will interpret Harris' recent "sassy operations" and her policy proposals.

Debate performance exceeded expectations

The US presidential candidate debate on September 10 attracted widespread attention. This is the first time that Harris and Trump have faced off head-on, and it may also be the only debate before the election. The last debate contributed to Biden's withdrawal from the election to a certain extent, which in turn affected the pattern of the election. In this debate, the market generally believed that Harris's performance was impressive and exceeded the expectations of the outside world, while Trump's response was mediocre.

After the debate, the gambling market also responded quickly. In just two hours, the price of Harris's election contract rose from $53 to $57, while the price of Trump's election contract fell from $52 to $47, further widening the gap between the two. This change reflects that more people are optimistic about Harris's victory and confirms that her debate performance exceeded market expectations. In this debate, Harris performed well on many issues. First, she faced the concerns of female voters on the issue of abortion and showed strong empathy and compassion. Secondly, in the discussion of racial issues, she showed a deep understanding and support for ethnic minorities by sharing her personal experience. Thirdly, Harris focused on emphasizing future development plans and deliberately distinguished herself from Biden, which enabled her to convey a sense of hope of injecting fresh power and promoting change. In comparison, Trump's performance in the debate was relatively poor. He mainly focused on issues such as illegal immigration, tariff policies, and the supply of fossil energy. Although these issues are important, his arguments lack innovation and may not attract the favor of centrist voters.

Against this background, Harris also took advantage of the victory and invited Republican candidate Trump to another TV debate on social media, which attracted considerable attention. She tried to win more votes for herself by fighting another battle.

Campaign office was shot

In the context of Trump being shot twice in a row but gaining more support, Harris recently experienced the same experience.

The US police reported on September 24 local time that Harris' campaign office in Arizona was shot. There were four bullet holes on the glass door and windows of the office. The shooting took place at night. No one was in the office at the time of the incident and no casualties were caused. After preliminary investigation, the police determined that this was a potential property crime.

Currently, there are two interpretations of this shooting in the market:

Another view is that this may be a play directed and performed by Harris herself, with the purpose of diverting public attention and confusing the audience. Because using such a simple shooting incident against the office as a means of retaliation is really "too stupid", which will not only not cause any harm to Harris, but may strengthen the negative image of "Trump supporters are violent elements", which will benefit Harris's campaign.

Coincidentally, the shooting incident in Harris' campaign office seems to have echoed Musk's previous "joke". Earlier, after Trump was shot for the second time on the golf course, Musk had reposted a post on the X platform titled "Why Do They Want to Kill Trump", and attached his own comments, questioning why no one tried to assassinate Harris, and also accompanied it with a thinking emoji. But then Musk deleted the post and said it was just a "joke".

Spending 4.9 million more than Trump every day, trying to use money to make the US president

The latest federal filings show that Harris and her campaign team and the Democratic National Committee's daily expenses far exceed Trump and the Republican Party's campaign expenses. Harris' team spent an average of $7.5 million a day in August, while Trump's camp spent an average of $2.6 million a day. In this way, Harris's daily campaign expenses are a full $4.9 million more than Trump.

And Harris is also far ahead in raising campaign funds. According to data from the Federal Election Commission, Harris' campaign team and the Democratic Party raised a total of $361 million in August, and the total has now been raised to $404 million. In contrast, Trump's campaign team only raised $130 million during the same period, plus $25 million donated by the Make America Great Again (MAGA) Political Action Committee, and as of the end of August, Trump's campaign funds totaled $295 million. More funds have also added a boost to Harris' campaign. This money will help Harris expand her campaign team nationwide, hire more political talents, set up offices across the country, directly contact voters, and promote her own governance ideas; at the same time, increase the scale of advertising, including multi-channel publicity such as television, newspapers, radio and social media; finally, it can also be used to conduct more opinion polls and research, support more rallies and door-to-door visits, and enhance voters' favorability and impression.

Buffed but full of black material

Before officially becoming a candidate and competing against Trump, Harris was able to be elected as the vice president of the Democratic Party thanks to her multiple advantages: minority background, immigrant family origin, female identity, graduation from a prestigious school, professional lawyer, and the first female attorney general in California. It can be said that almost all the advantages are concentrated on Harris, except for the LGBTQ community.

Harris was born into a highly educated immigrant family. Her father is a black Jamaican who was an honorary professor at Stanford University and a communist economist (which sometimes criticized her). Her mother is an Indian biologist. In addition, Harris' husband Doug Emhoff is of Jewish descent, which enables her to gain certain support among Jewish voters. After completing high school in Montreal, Canada, Harris was admitted to Howard University in the United States, majoring in economics and political science. During her graduate studies, she successfully entered the Hastings School of the Law at the University of California, Los Angeles, and obtained a doctorate in law. After passing the bar exam, she successfully joined the California Bar Association and subsequently served as the Attorney General of the City of San Francisco.

Although Harris has a brilliant personal resume, there are also many controversies. First, she was accused of obstructing the review of child molestation cases during her tenure as a prosecutor in San Francisco. In addition, she was criticized for issues such as the "truancy bill" and the "zero-dollar shopping bill." Her campaign behavior also caused controversy, such as taking the Chinese name "He Jinli" in order to win over Chinese voters, and being a mistress. She was also accused of being ungrateful to the Biden family and using the campaign opportunity to expose negative news about Biden. At the same time, Harris is an extremely anti-China politician. When she was a senator, she made many sharp remarks about China and promoted some important China-related bills, including the infamous S386 bill, known as the "new Chinese exclusion bill."

Similarities and differences between Harris and Trump's policies

After the September presidential debate, Harris's poll lead widened to 1.6% ahead of Trump. Currently, Harris has about 226 electoral votes in the confirmed camp, while Trump has about 219 electoral votes. To win, Harris needs 44 more electoral votes, while Trump needs 51. Comparing the two candidates' policy proposals, it can be clearly seen that Harris' "moderate" policy is likely to have a smaller impact on the market than Trump's. Harris's subsidy to residents through fiscal expansion may lead to an increase in debt issuance in the short term, which is not good for bond assets, but will also support the US dollar. In addition, her tax increase policy puts pressure on US stocks. Trump's policy is relatively favorable to US stocks, cyclical commodities and Bitcoin, but may have an intervention effect on the US dollar.

In the next two months, Trump still has a chance to overtake. The US election adopts the "electoral college system", so the candidate with the most popular votes may not be elected. According to the current poll support rates in various states, the election situation in swing states is more intense than ever.