Duck Duck Revelation: When Web3 is no longer young

When the world was young, a shared belief ignited a global fire. Web3 was its last glimmer of hope, but how long can this flame shine?

Originally, I should have been discussing how Variational, an RFQ-based architecture, makes markets, or cheering for the institutional adoption of stablecoins. At the very least, I should have written three long articles about x402 instead of memes.

Unfortunately, there is none. Recently, I have always had a feeling that Web3's ability to "live up" is continuously declining:

1. CTO is back, CTO Meme is passed on by word of mouth, and it is no longer fresh;

2. The Solana conference encountered a storm, and there are talented people in the currency circle every year, each of whom is in the limelight for two or three days;

3. The YaYa market is made by the masses, the CS accessories market is banned, and Facaster is busy with acquisitions. In short, Web3 doesn't seem so cool anymore. The term Web 3.0 was defined by O'Reilly in 2006, Gavin Wood in 2015, and A16Z's Chris Dixon in 2021. Just like Messari's vote to coin the term DePIN, the concept needs to be repeatedly revitalized by the times. The Null Pointer of Web3 That comfortable sofa chair, the warm checkered carpet, and the un-pulled trigger. Crypto, blockchain, and Web 3 constitute our three phases of the vague "cryptosphere," such as AI X Crypto, RWA pointing to blockchain, and user ownership pointing to Web3. Readable, writable, and ownable—these are the rhetorical divisions of Web 1.0/2.0/3.0, but Web3 points to nothingness. How long has it been since you heard about GameFi? Elementary school students are trading chicken skins. College students are hoarding CS weapons. Adults are turning into roast ducks in farm towns. If GameFi must be declared dead, the cause of death can only be that the crypto community has been overwhelmed by the economic incentives, making it difficult for them to be moved by games. But what does this have to do with YaYa? The project was launched in mid-2024, and Station B incubated a five-person studio, Carbonic Acid Squad. On October 16th, Escape from Yakov was launched on Steam and the macOS App Store, priced at 58 yuan (51 yuan after discount), and sold 1 million copies in a week. Of course, it's far inferior to the miracle of Black Myth, but the public needs these kinds of small-scale creative, low-investment, and low-difficulty games to cultivate talent. Only with such a healthy market structure can the gaming industry need more than Battlefield 6 and Grand Theft Auto 6, but also Dyson Spheres and Escape from Yakov.

   

   From the perspective of Web3, Duck Duck is very naive. GameFi, which previously raised tens of millions of dollars in financing, should not be able to do it. In addition to imitating the hardcore style of Escape from Tarkov, there are two routes:

   

   From the perspective of the currency circle, the double spending problem has occurred, and it is very suitable for blockchain to solve it. However, "it is not the YaYa Market that needs to be on the chain, but the chain needs the YaYa Market." We are always accustomed to putting economic factors first and the interaction and experience between people last. A deeply embarrassing fact is that Web3 is rapidly trending towards gambling. Even the Chinese-language trend among foreigners is due to a lack of leverage. The mainland market, despite persistently high pressure, still retains its last bit of purchasing power. If institutionalization and financialization are the answer to everything, then there's no need to go to the trouble of re-entering China. What matters most to retail investors is a sense of identity, just like the Western craze surrounding the x402 meme. But will this truly attract outsiders to stablecoins? The answer is self-evident. The current problem for all cryptocurrency circles is their inability to break out of the mainstream. Sun Ge has a bad reputation, and USDT has truly taken a detour from the Third World to its European and American launch. The Secret Service needs 100 Yu Zechengs, and cryptocurrency needs 100 YaYa markets, plus one Sun Ge. Rentiers exclude production. They persuade me to put down the sand in my hand, but I open my mouth to sing, but my voice falls silent. Born in a high stage of uncivilized culture, the leisure class shuns the displays of superior economic status enjoyed by the productive class. Please try LABUBU. The first generation to become wealthy, passing it on to the second generation, demands its own unique fashion expression. Whether it looks good or not is unimportant; what matters is that I say it looks good and you agree. In other words, LABUBU's high-end and enduring appeal requires people to use it as an anchor to complete the transformation of their intergenerational identity. Why shouldn't it be represented by an NFT? What's the difference between the fat penguin and the moonbird? I don't think it's a lack of physical objects. The virtualization of humanity has been evident since the QQ Show era. It's just that blockchain isn't cool enough. There's still a good opportunity now. Consider the mass adoption of luxury goods in the West. Luxury goods emerged in the 1970s and 1980s, when Europe and the United States entered a period of stable economic growth. The middle class needed a symbol of class distinction, ideally something they could afford with a month's salary, something the working class could only afford in a year. In a society divided between slaves and citizens, or nobles and commoners, such luxury goods are precisely unnecessary. Only in a complex industrialized society, where humanity as a whole no longer has to worry about survival, does it require more cultural representations. This highlights the shift in intergenerational culture. Non-productivity is no longer the exclusive domain of a few. The majority are excluded from the production system. With the development of productivity, rentierism becomes a specialized profession.

   Especially, how can Generation Z/Xiao Deng/post-05, who have the ability to survive since birth but lack the ability to live a high-end life, coexist with the early rentiers and even subvert them to become the mother of the era? They can lick them, they can scold them, but they cannot do without the economic nourishment of the rentiers.

   

   While the duck duck market in the East continues to prosper, the big hands of G Fatty in the West are also continuing to exert their strength, and the third-party black market for CS players has completely become a major market for CS. The negative assets are profiting from black market traders and speculators, while Gabe Newell will bear the brunt of the reputational damage when the market finally collapses. Then I can only flip the tables in advance. My vassal's vassal is not my vassal, and my secondary market is not my market. In the four years since I entered the space, I've always believed that Web3 is a content creation industry, but it's now nearing exhaustion. It's always the same few people, the same few things. Of course, it's always good to be BTC, but BTC doesn't need any other ancillary protocols. Currently, there is zero demand for BTC.

   

   Image Caption: "Halo · Trump"

   Image Source: @WhiteHouse

   If you don't believe in the ability of a whole life, then you underestimate your own weight. Trump has proved the power of retail investors, which benefits the White House above, the halo below, Ma on the left, and China on the right.

   Once again, I would like to praise the PumpFun team. Although they are evil, they understand the meaning of long-term efforts better than Tieshun, and reveal the youthful vigor. Before the Solana Foundation took full control, it was home to the most active conspiracy groups. However, with the Foundation's excellence and the official guidance for concepts like ICM and PayFi, the meme-fueled, DeFi-fueled boom is gone. While the EF doesn't get involved in personnel or official matters, it certainly doesn't hinder your innovative or malicious behavior. The merits and demerits will be judged by future generations. A pearl buried in the earth conceals its splendor, but once unearthed, its brilliance overflows. Web3 needs to set aside its arrogance now. Beyond the burgeoning, high-fashioned institutionalization, US stocks, stablecoins, and government bonds, and beyond the increasingly out-of-control meme and perp leverage, it needs to leave a clean slate for neutral markets. Something must remain to withstand the onslaught. Crypto-punks gave rise to the idea of ​​decentralization, giving Bitcoin and blockchain a physical register. Amidst the confused aspirations of Generation Z, unwilling to remain flat, we must ultimately break free from Death Eaters and embrace the Muggle world.