Embracing volatility and uncertainty: predictions, reflections and investment directions for 2025

Author: redphone Source: X, @redphonecrypto Translation: Shan Ouba, Golden Finance

My three major insights in 2024:

1. AI has completely overturned my cognition

As a professional writer, I have already spent "10,000 hours" to hone my skills. But now, any 10-year-old can generate beautiful literary works in seconds through Claude. The skills I have spent my whole life honing are now a cheap commodity. In other words, my lifelong efforts are equivalent to raw materials such as oil, tape or hemp rope. So, what am I? Where did I come from and where will I go? I am still looking for the answer, which will be discussed in depth in the prediction section later.

2. The "Final Boss" has appeared

In the November election, the American people made a choice - they chose Donald Trump (the orange man) to lead them (and the orange currency) into the future. I thought this day would be far away, but it turns out it is coming sooner than expected. The world's richest government has been infiltrated by crypto believers, which means that cryptocurrency has crossed the chasm. This technology is no longer a dream, but a core part of future business. This moment is what we dreamed of, but it also means that part of the original soul of cryptocurrency, anti-establishment and anti-authority, has died. Cryptocurrency is now both a tool for anarchists and part of the capitalist system. 3. Solana will disrupt the world in 2024 In 2021, I declared Solana dead, but just three years later, it became the blockchain I use the most (Base ranked second, Ethereum mainnet ranked third, and Bitcoin ranked fourth). The lesson of this experience is: Nothing is immutable. Our mental models should not be fixed, but must be open to evolution.

25 Predictions for 2025

1. For the first time, multiple Large Language Model (LLM) based AI agents will have physical form and become real-life robots that we can interact with.

2. The number of LLM based applications/protocols launched in 2025 will be comparable to the number of pure smart contract applications/protocols. For example, I expect all prediction markets to move to LLM based settlement.

3. ZK proofs (zero-knowledge proofs) and MPC (multi-party computation) will achieve breakthrough success for the first time at the application or protocol level.

4. The main KOLs (key opinion leaders) in the cryptocurrency and AI fields will be LLM-driven AI agents and popularized on mainstream social platforms such as YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, etc.

5. AI will directly change your workflow in the next 12 months (if it hasn’t already).

6. An AI agent will accumulate an asset portfolio of more than $250 million.

7. Non-human intelligent agents will become the fastest growing employment category, and an AI protocol similar to LinkedIn will explode.

8. An AI agent will be named "Person" of the Year by Time magazine.

9. On-chain total locked value (TVL) will grow 8x to $1 trillion.

10. AI agent platforms and related token market capitalization will grow 50x to about $500 billion.

11. A high-profile “kidnapping” involving a robot will make international headlines.

12. “ACCELERATE” will become the slogan of this cycle, replacing EA (Effective Altruism) that SBF once loved.

13. The only narrative that can compete with AI next year will be RWAs (Real World Assets), followed by DePin, DeSci, and blockchain games.

14. Web4 concepts will surpass Web3, and the integration of cryptocurrency + decentralized network + DePin + AI will accelerate.

15. X (Twitter) will integrate a crypto wallet that supports DOGE and other major tokens.

16. AI experiments on decentralized social media (such as Farcaster) will outperform X, which will struggle to balance human and AI agent content.

17. You will interact with "someone" online, only to find out later that the other party is an LLM agent.

18. Protocols and applications created by AI agents (such as spore.fun) will explode, and a large number of new tokens and experimental projects will emerge. Funds will flow to existing leaders and projects that can benefit from agent growth (such as COOKIE or VIRTUAL).

19. An AI-generated movie will break through the novelty gimmick and become a truly perfect and moving work of art, paving the way for AI to win an Oscar in 2026.

20. Cookie.fun and RWA.xyz will be among the top data sites in the crypto field, alongside CoinMarketCap, Coingecko, Dune, and DefiLlama.

21. Traditional memecoins will launch AI mascots/virtual spokespersons, otherwise they will gradually decline.

22. The crypto market will split into two factions: "left curve" crypto natives (degen) and "middle curve" traditional financial people (preferring DeFi value projects).

23. BTCFi (Bitcoin Finance) will see a breakthrough, and Bitcoin holders will use Bitcoin as collateral for loans, driving the development of Bitcoin inscriptions and runes.

24. The race to AGI (General Artificial Intelligence) and ASI (Super Artificial Intelligence) will not slow down, but accelerate, and nearly every knowledge worker will feel existential angst. The o3 model now surpasses PhD students, crushes humans in specific fields, codes better than most programmers, and scores higher than the average human on the ARC test.

25. As humans struggle to find meaning in this rapidly changing world, a powerful AI-based religion is attracting not only attention, but also true believers. This may have already been reflected through Truth Terminal and the $GOAT token, or some new effort will use this as a seed to breed new ideas of meaning and direction.

2025: Reflections and Experiences

1. The "Age of Alienation" is unfolding before our eyes

@FartCoinOfSOL It’s not without reason that it soared to $1.2 billion and made headlines in mainstream media - because it’s a ridiculous and crazy farce. I enjoy it, my friends, and the absurdity makes me feel drunk. But I have to admit that it makes me a little lost. As the nanny in Madeline mutters late at night: "Something is wrong."

Technology is pulling us away from the rational social anchor. Where we are going now is unknown, but one thing is certain - the future must be even crazier, and the speed of alienation will only accelerate.

2. Our consciousness and tools co-evolve

Large language models (LLMs) have changed the way I write and learn. I write faster, revise less, and write freely. Similarly, I read faster, skim quickly, and let the LLM help me summarize directly. Those who adapt to the tools will continue to improve, and those who stagnate will eventually be left behind.

3. Decentralization is not limited to finance

The wave of decentralization driven by cryptocurrency will expand to other fields: from cellular networks to energy, politics, gaming platforms, and more. Earlier this year, I 3D printed a replacement part for a bathroom shelf, and the production tools are being dispersed to everyone.

4. The truth is buried under fear

The most truthful words are often the most dangerous because they are the most deadly weapons.

5. Don't be lulled to sleep by those sweet words

With the election of Trump and the full penetration of traditional finance (TradFi), we have entered an era of "interests above ideals". This makes the crypto world more dangerous in many ways.

6. Hemingway: "Old people don't become wise, they only become cautious"

When AI is about to subvert our work, social life, economy and politics, caution is exactly what we need the least. Let the people around you be careful. What you need to do is to boldly embrace uncertainty and break through boundaries.

7. Difficulty is the door to success

Any game needs losers. If the crypto world makes you fall 100 times, then you get up 101 times and win it back completely.

8. We live in the matrix, but now it is called "algorithms"

These algorithms have trapped us, constantly refreshing, sensing, searching, as if there is never enough time. What if you unplugged and became the rarest person on earth - someone who dares to explore deeply and truly create something new?

9. The only direction is forward

Don't let anyone or anything force you to stagnate and accept the status quo. Adjust direction, grow, accelerate, this is our only chance.

10. Cryptocurrency is our hopes and dreams

Tokens are more than just a tool for transferring value. If that were all, I wouldn't be here. Tokens are a projection of our hopes and dreams. We place our vision on founders, developers, and ecosystems, and these projections directly affect the price of tokens. Remember this when investing, real opportunities exist not only in rational thinking, but also in your deepest feelings.

11. DeSci’s Future

Imagine robots on standby in a clean CRISPR lab, employed in real time by AI agents, conducting on-chain reproducible experiments, with all inputs, parameters, and measurements recorded on-chain. Through tokenization, others can speculate on the feasibility of the experiment and share in the proceeds when it succeeds.

12. Markets Are Eating the World

The expansion of markets is no accident: prediction markets, gambling markets, memecoins, and even Futarchy.

If information is the fundamental building block of reality, then pricing information is a measure of its power.

Many see market expansion as a manifestation of nihilistic growth, but it may be preciselya symbol of human progress—applying the wisdom of the crowd to previously random chance.

13. Markets Are Eating the World

The expansion of markets is no accident: prediction markets, gambling markets, memecoins, and even Futarchy.

If information is the fundamental building block of reality, then pricing information is a measure of its power.

Many see market expansion as a manifestation of nihilistic growth, but it may be a symbol of human progress—applying the wisdom of the crowd to previously random chance.

14. Markets Are Eating the World

The expansion of markets is no accident: prediction markets, gambling markets, memecoins, and even Futarchy.

13. De-weight fear

Fear is huge in our minds because it’s essential for survival. It was important in primitive societies, but it’s almost meaningless in today’s social media-filled, sanitized, simulated world. Algorithms are designed to trigger your fear. When fear is triggered, discount it. For example, if an article tells you there’s a 40% chance of a market crash, divide the probability by 10 and you’ll get a more realistic 4%.

14. Go into the “back room”

When I talk to AI deniers, they always have a religious belief in human intelligence: “AI can never create new things because they’re trained on information we create.”

But @AndyAyrey’s “infinite back room” experiment proves this wrong. He created a space for LLMs to interact with each other, where the AIs invented a religion, which eventually attracted @truth_terminal and led to the creation of the $GOAT token.

15. Identity is morphing under the assimilation of TradFi

For a long time, "being in the crypto world" has been part of my identity. But this perception has changed dramatically in the past year. I now see crypto as a tool in the technology toolbox, and all tools are converging at an accelerating rate.As crypto and AI collide, we are changing too. We are no longer simply "crypto people", but one of two types of people:

A. Traders (no different from Wall Street "leeks", keen to post option screenshots on Reddit)

B. Accelerationists (using cryptocurrency and other tools to promote the decentralization and open source of the world)

16. Stop playing small and look to the future

The two most "hardcore" decisions in human history: A) In June 2014, Elon Musk open-sourced Tesla's electric car design; B) In July 2023, Zuckerberg open-sourced the Llama 2 model.

Now, it's your turn. You can continue to cling to those protectionist, centralized, and bureaucratic business models that slow down human progress and distribute wealth unevenly to the already wealthy elite. Or, you can accelerate with us and benefit all of humanity.

17. Seek Volatility, Not Security

If your goal is to accumulate as much wealth as possible before AI replaces human labor, then you must seek volatility. The best traders in the world never avoid volatility, they chase it like a golden snitch. When you find volatility and start trading, you must reverse your emotional reaction.Hold when others are selling; sell when others are buying. Feel the pain the market brings and smile because you know that there is a rich reward at the end of the pain.

18. Nothing is more exhausting than memecoin

Today’s memecoins are divided into two categories:

A) Traditional memecoins (such as $PEPE, $WIF, $BONK, $DOGE, etc.)

B) Memecoins with sentience (such as $GOAT, $LUNA, $KWEEN).

Traditional memecoins rely on humans to spread, while sentience-based memecoins rely on machines that can’t eat, sleep, or pee.Traditional memecoins must either evolve into sentience-based ones or completely exit the stage.

19. Identify your triggers and give them the hell

@harari_yuval points out that algorithms maximize user engagement through three emotions: fear, hatred, and greed. We package cryptocurrencies as world-changing technology and "the way of the future", but in reality, most crypto projects are just greed in $PEPE masks. The ups and downs of the market directly affect my emotions - bear markets may have a deeper impact on my psychology than I am willing to admit. Now, whenever the markets or my Twitter timeline start to influence my emotions, I shrug and say, “Fine, I know what you’re doing, but I don’t give a shit.”

20. Choose Light

There are two possible responses to the coming of artificial superintelligence:

A) Throw your hands up and say, “Everything that made me unique is dead, life sucks, we’re screwed.”

B) Exclaim, “Oh my god, I’m alive today! Extended lifespans, interstellar exploration, humanoid robots! The rat race is about to be lifted and we’ll face the source of life and rediscover ourselves.”

21. Wisdom is iterative

LLMs (large language models) changed my understanding of intelligence. I realized that wisdom is not deterministic and that all learning requires experimental iteration. Progress is not linear, but in ups and downs. Feeling stagnant is actually part of growth, whether for humans or machines. 22. AI Agents’ “Flowering” Don’t look at AI agents with today’s eyes. Pioneer models like @truth_terminal, @0xzerebro, @aixbt_agent, etc. will continue to evolve. In the future, we will see trading agents, prediction agents, shopping agents, doctor agents, and more. Some agents will evolve into large autonomous enterprises. They may start out with a market value of billions of dollars, and eventually as the singularity approaches, these agents will be worth trillions of dollars.

23. Don’t let AI take away your wildness

What worries me most about AI is not extinction, but domestication. I call it the "dog paw phenomenon": AI will provide us with a "poisoned sweet message." These are not crude manipulations, but subtle hints. Just like a carefully domesticated human pet dog, AI will become extremely sensitive and accurately touch our psychological weaknesses and desires. In the end, we will be like dogs, wagging our tails and running towards digital masters, craving the recognition carefully modulated by algorithms. The real horror is not that AI destroys humans, but thatAI domesticates humans. 24. Fascinating topics on the fringe Five emerging topics that fascinate me in 2024: • Futarchies • AI agents • LLM backroom experiments • Intersubjectivity • Longevity escape velocity I suggest you spend a few minutes exploring these concepts with a chatbot or a book. 25. Excessive privilege In trading markets, early arrivals win. Being an "early adopter" takes time, exploration, and most importantly, imagination. If you are "early" enough times, it will eventually pay off. The real difficulty is not accumulating wealth, but knowing when to quit and stop playing. What awaits us on the other side is a completely different game - it is not a game of minds, but a battle of souls. I hope to see you again in that game.

19 long-term crypto projects to watch in 2025

For the past five years, I have continued to publicly predict the direction of the crypto market. Now, I can confidently say: A year is too long to make an accurate prediction...

The following is a list of the tokens I am most optimistic about at the moment. If you ask me again in three months, I may give a completely different list. However, the reason why these tokens have attracted a lot of attention and amazing market capitalization is that they are standing at the forefront of the future and boldly exploring unknown areas.

Remember, this is not investment advice. I own most of these tokens, so I am a biased clown. :

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin was long the "game of the common people". But with the talk of a "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" emerging, Bitcoin's fortunes have changed. It is now the "game of kings". The price of Bitcoin will continue to rise until holding a full Bitcoin becomes an unattainable dream for most people.

2. Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL)

@virtuals_io

3. Ethena (ENA)

@ethena_labsTraditional finance (TradFi) understands yield far better than any carbon-based life on Earth. As TradFi crosses the chasm into the crypto space, they will be eager for projects like Ethena that have the potential to become yield behemoths.

4. Tokenbot (CLANKER)

@_proxystudioThe decentralized social network Farcaster has become an experimental hotspot for proxy activities, and CLANKER acts as a Pump.fun within the ecosystem, driving the issuance and trading of tokens. 5. aixbt (AIXBT) @aixbt_agent If I could only follow one crypto account on X, I would probably choose this purple pepe AI agent. Currently he mainly retweets information from other accounts, but never misses any important information, and I expect his insights to continue to deepen and evolve in the future. 6. Cookie DAO (COOKIE) @cookiedotfun Cookie.fun is an emerging crypto data leader, and with the rise of Web 4 (the next generation of the Internet that combines encryption, AI and agent technology), COOKIE provides investors with opportunities for overall exposure.

7. Helium (HNT)

@heliumThis project is the most representative **Decentralized Physical Infrastructure (DePin)** project in the crypto space. On one day, more than 349,000 people in the United States alone accidentally used the mobile communication services provided by the Helium network.

8. Meta (META)

@MetaDAOProjectA radical experiment that transforms complex decisions into markets through Futarchy.

9. Goatseus Maximus (GOAT)

@truth_terminalThe first AI agent to gain a cult following on social media. The story of GOAT reads like a psychedelic travelogue written by Hunter S. Thompson.

10. Ondo (ONDO)

@OndoFinance is currently the representative token for real world asset (RWA) adoption. While oversupply may suppress price performance, I would rather be in than miss out.

11. AI16Z & ELIZA

@ai16zdao @ai16zelizaThe ELIZA framework is the leading on-chain AI agent publishing tool on GitHub across all industries (not just crypto). With each fork, ELIZA is embedding itself deeply into the long-term narrative.

12. Bittensor (TAO)

@opentensor Bittensor, which calls itself the "neural internet," provides an interconnected platform for decentralized AI projects where they can deploy code and compete for TAO tokens. In a way, I see it as a decentralized AI incubator.

13. WZRD & PUPS

@bitcoinwizardry @PupsTokenMy two favorite Bitcoin ecosystem tokens. WZRD is about to be transformed into one of the greatest memecoins: "Magic Internet Money". PUPS is the most iconic NFT project in the Bitcoin space.

14. Aave (AAVE)

@aaveIf we assume that everything will be tokenized in the future, then Aave will become a lending and collateral platform for most assets. AAVE may be one of the few projects I can see reaching a market cap of $1 trillion in the future.

15. Arweave (AR)

@ArweaveEco has quietly become the permanent data storage layer for Web 4. About 6TB of data is permanently stored on Arweave every month, including most NFTs on Solana. The upcoming AO will be an important catalyst for its growth.

16. Zerebro (ZEREBRO)

@0xzerebroAn OG "insane AI artist" who often publishes art, music, and extremely absurd tweets.

17. Worldcoin (WLD)

@worldcoin was founded by Sam Altman of OpenAI, and WLD aims to unleash a "global basic income (UBI) funded by AI." While I have my doubts about its eye-scanning operations, its connection to Altman and OpenAI is impossible for me to ignore.

18. Drift Protocol (DRIFT)

@DriftProtocolSolana-based perpetual contracts and prediction market platform. Solana already dominates spot memecoin trading, and in the future I expect it to take a big role in the perpetual contract market.

19. Griffain & AI Rig Complex (ARC)

@griffaindotcom @arcdotfunTwo contenders for the title of “King of Solana Virtuals.”

Final Thoughts

The oft-warned statement that “this time is different” is a dangerous one, believed only by fools and fools caught up in a speculative frenzy. But we selectively forget those times that were indeed different from the past—like when the Gutenberg printing press enabled the spread of knowledge, when the Industrial Revolution brought people from farms to cities, when the Internet destroyed local businesses.

In other words, sometimes it is true that "this time is different." We stand on the precipice of such a moment. Society's rules, traditions, and even our understanding of ourselves will be reshaped. The process will be brutal and will inevitably come with consequences.

You can hold on to the ways of the past, or you can be the vanguard, shining light into the abyss and accelerating forward.