来源：刘教链
前几日，投资机构Galaxy Digital出品了一篇题为《比特币ETF的市场规模》的研究报告[1]。在该报告中，研究人员估算了现货比特币ETF产品一旦获批，将预计为比特币市场带来的资金增量，以及该等资金增量所可能造成的影响。
下面，教链就把其中的关键点提炼出来，与各位读者分享交流，并给出另外一个粗略估计的方法，作为对照。
据估计，比特币ETF产品可能通过三个财富管理渠道注入增量资金：一，经纪商，约27.1万亿刀；二，银行，约11.9万亿刀；三，投资顾问（RIA），约9.3万亿刀。
这样一来，总共的可触达市场（TAM）就大约是 27.1 + 11.9 + 9.3 = 48.3万亿刀。注意这里排除了2万亿刀的家族办公室，并且只考虑了美国市场。
接下来，报告假设BTC ETF在所有市场配置比例为千分之一（10%接受，1%配置，相乘就是千分之一），据此估算出，BTC ETF上市后第一年预期流入资金量144亿刀，第二年265亿刀，第三年386亿刀。
然后就是估算这些资金流入对BTC的价格会有何种影响。报告采用的方法是参考黄金/黄金ETF。在介绍完报告的方法和结果后，教链会给出另外一个估算的方法。
首先，拉出黄金和BTC的数据来。下图就是截至2023年9月30号的数据。
黄金的市值是BTC的24倍，黄金ETF持有的黄金量相比估计的BTC ETF持有的BTC现货量少，前者仅相当于后者的36%，这样，就可以估计，同等规模资金流入，给BTC带来的价格冲击是黄金的 24 x 36% = 8倍多。随后报告拉出了黄金ETF与黄金价格相关数据，进行了一通数据拟合，最后得出结论：BTC ETF上市第一年对BTC价格的影响为74.1%。
报告的这个算法在教链看来，忽视了最重要的一点，就是黄金的S2F和比特币的S2F的差异，也就是资产增量的因素。而资产增量，是内因。资金增量，只是外因。
内因决定外因。外因通过内因起作用。忽视内因，只抓外因，那就是舍本逐末了。
教链这里给出另外一个估算方法。当然，这个估算方法是粗糙的，只是提供一个启发性的意义。
首先让我们假设BTC ETF上市后，BTC的增产已经是按照2024年初减半后的速度在发行。这个速度就是每区块3.125个BTC。
其次，让我们假设ETF之外的资金和存量BTC始终保持均衡。这样，ETF的增量资金就只和增量BTC发生作用。那么，其均衡价格就很容易通过一个简单的算式计算出来：
第一年增量资金144亿刀，除以第一年BTC产量 3.125 x 6 x 24 x 365 = 164250 BTC，得出均衡价格约为 8.5w刀/BTC。
第二年增量资金265亿刀，除以第二年BTC产量还是 164250 BTC，计算结果为 16w刀/BTC。
第三年增量资金386亿刀，仍然除以 162450 BTC，得出 23.5w刀/BTC。
当然，由于市场存在反身性效应，存量也会随价格波动而被随时激活，这些都会打破上述存量均衡的假设，从而使得市场的真实发展充满的波动和曲折，绝不会像预想的那样线性发展。
最后，报告估计，长期而言，现货BTC ETF的通过将有望带来1260亿刀（麦肯锡估计）至4540亿刀（UBS估计）的增量。由于不清楚这个“长期”究竟是多长，因此报告也并未估算最终价格影响有多大。
我们可以简单拿报告前面的估计做一个启发性速估：首年144亿增量造成74%的影响，那么长期20倍增量则造成1.74 x 20 - 1 = 33.8x的影响。3w 刀现价 x 33.8 = 约 100w刀/BTC。
最后强调一下，这些数值计算只是启发思考，绝对不具有任何的确定性，千万不要当作任何投资依据或建议。市场波动风险极高，小心驶得万年船。捷径往往是通往破产最快的路。自己思考，自己判断，自我负责，才是正道。
参考资料：
- [1] https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/sizing-the-market-for-a-bitcoin-etf/
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