Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering key news of the week, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is one of the news weekly, taking you to a glance at the major events in the blockchain industry this week.
Headlines
▌Federal Reserve dot plot: only one rate cut is expected in 2024
The Federal Reserve dot plot shows that the federal funds rate is expected to be 5.1% at the end of 2024 and 4.6% in March; the federal funds rate is expected to be 4.1% at the end of 2025 and 3.9% in March; the federal funds rate is expected to be 3.1% at the end of 2026 and 3.1% in March; the long-term federal funds rate is expected to be 2.8% and 2.6% in March.
▌Bloomberg ETF Analyst: The launch date of the spot Ethereum ETF may be brought forward to July 2
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform: "The launch date of the spot Ethereum ETF may be brought forward to July 2. I heard that the staff sent comments on the S-1 to the issuer today, and the comments were brief. There was no big problem and asked for a reply in a week. They are likely to announce the effectiveness next week and resolve the matter before the holiday. Anything is possible, but this is our best guess at the moment. The previous forecast date was July 4, so this is not a major shift."
▌Optimism mainnet "fault proof" system is online
The second-layer blockchain Optimism aims to help Ethereum users trade quickly and reduce fees. Its technology is the basis for some big companies in the blockchain, but for many years, Optimism has had a problem. Until now, there has been a core feature missing from Optimism’s security design: “fault proofs.” On Monday, the long-promised technology finally landed on Optimism’s mainnet. Fault proofs are designed to ensure the honesty of Layer-2 chains built on Optimism. They help prevent Layer-2 chain operators from passing inaccurate transaction data to Ethereum’s Layer-1 transaction ledger, and provide support for Layer-2 chains’ “decentralized” withdrawal mechanisms. ▌ Musk Faces Shareholder Lawsuit Alleging His Twitter Acquisition Harmed Tesla’s Interests A new shareholder derivative lawsuit alleges that Musk sold Tesla stock and misappropriated Tesla’s resources in the process of acquiring the social media platform then known as Twitter (now renamed “X”), in violation of his obligations to Tesla shareholders. On Monday, the Rhode Island State Employees Retirement System sued Musk, Tesla and Tesla board members, claiming that Musk's huge investment in the acquisition of Twitter distracted him from his duties at Tesla, created a conflict of interest and harmed Tesla's interests.
Policy
▌Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority Closes Crypto Bank FlowBank and Initiates Bankruptcy Proceedings
The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) has made the decision to close FlowBank, a Swiss online bank that provides cryptocurrency services to customers. The regulator said the bank no longer has sufficient capital to maintain its banking business, and there are good reasons to worry that the bank is currently over-indebted and has no prospects for restructuring. It is reported that Swiss law firm Walder Wyss has been appointed by FINMA as the bank's bankruptcy liquidator.
▌UK advances global leadership in fintech and digital assets
Crypto advocacy group Stand with Crypto (SwC) launched in London, just as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the general election. SwC has put forward a series of recommendations aimed at making the UK a global hub for fintech, digital assets and tokenization. Recommendations include promoting the UK as a hub for Web3 and tokenization, developing a regulatory framework for crypto assets, providing regulatory clarity for staking, promoting the benefits of decentralization, developing a cross-government blockchain strategy, developing a tokenization strategy for the City of London, and updating the digital asset legal framework. These measures are designed to attract investment, promote innovation, and advance the UK's digital economy.
▌EU vote could lead to a more innovation-friendly policy framework
Voting by 720 Members of Parliament (MEPs) began last week, and results from 27 countries have been released since Sunday. The elected MEPs include Stefan Berger, legislative rapporteur for Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA), Ondrej Kovarik and Irene Tingali, former chair of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON). Mark Foster, head of EU policy at the Crypto Innovation Commission, said the election results show that a slight shift to the right, combined with a stronger European People's Party and a weaker Green Party, is likely to make the EU more focused on competitiveness and growth over the next five years. This could lead to a more innovation-friendly policy framework. Cryptocurrency was not a key theme in the EU elections, but the future of cryptocurrencies will depend on the commissioners who can propose legislation. Some members of the crypto community are seeking more blockchain policy, but MEPs cannot propose new legislation, they can only develop and decide on it. New commissioners will be elected after the EU elections.
▌Senate bill requires crypto industry to transform to identify users, industry insiders believe the bill has little chance of passing
A Senate bill aimed at funding U.S. intelligence operations has a section that draws on a previous bill aimed at preventing the use of cryptocurrencies to support terrorism, according to sources. The provision could require the crypto industry to undergo a large-scale transformation to identify users to prevent sanctions that could stifle digital asset businesses. If the bill becomes law, it would be the most significant crypto policy passed in the United States to date - and its pros and cons have not yet caused major controversy.
Conversations indicate that the matter is still under discussion as the spending package moves forward, awaiting broader Senate deliberations and possible inclusion in the must-pass National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). But industry insiders believe the bill has limited chances of surviving.
▌Biden is expected to choose Goldsmith Romero as the next FDIC chairman
The White House is preparing to select Christy Goldsmith Romero, a senior member of the U.S. derivatives regulator, to lead the reform of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), according to people familiar with the matter. No final decision has been made, and the announcement could come as early as this week, people familiar with the matter said.
▌Viewpoint: The U.S. crypto industry shows signs of recovery after the regulatory storm
Alex Gluchowski, CEO of Matter Labs, said the U.S. crypto industry has become a "powerful electoral force." Last year, the crypto market was sluggish due to the deteriorating regulatory environment, but the situation has improved this year, with projects such as Circle planning to go public in the United States.
Despite regulatory challenges from the Securities and Exchange Commission, Blockworks co-founder Jason Yanowitz noted that the number of conference speakers has rebounded this year, indicating that industry confidence has recovered. Bill Hughes, chief legal officer of Consensys, believes that regulatory uncertainty inhibits innovation and gives large companies a competitive advantage. Joshua Riezeman, deputy general counsel of GCR, warned that the United States needs to clarify its regulatory framework or it will lose more crypto companies.
Despite the challenges, Gluchowski emphasized the growing influence of the U.S. crypto community, exemplified by the bipartisan-supported FIT21 bill. Hughes believes that the United States has advantages in capital and talent and can still lead the crypto field.
▌Powell: Confidence that inflation will slow down enough to cut interest rates has not yet increased, and it will take longer to cut interest rates
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that more recent inflation data has slowed down; more good data is needed to boost confidence in the anti-inflation process; continue to pay close attention to inflation risks; so far this year, our confidence that inflation will slow down enough to cut interest rates has not increased.
Powell said that the U.S. economy has made significant progress in employment and inflation; the inflation rate has eased significantly, but it is still too high; economic activity has expanded at a steady pace; the Federal Reserve generally expects GDP growth to slow from last year; the pace of employment growth remains strong, but slower than in the first quarter; the FOMC expects the labor market to remain strong.
Powell said that the major factor in changing the forecast of the interest rate path is inflation; the inflation process stagnated in the first quarter, which means that it will take longer to cut interest rates; the timing of the interest rate cut has been delayed due to the slowdown in inflation progress; we must let the data illuminate the way forward; today's inflation report is better than almost everyone expected; the FOMC began to believe that interest rates will not return to pre-epidemic levels.
Powell said that the entire interest rate path is important, not just the first rate cut; the first rate cut is crucial to the economy; the timing of the rate cut is an important decision for the economy.
Blockchain Applications
▌Starknet Core Developers Launch Catnet to Test Bitcoin Circle STARK Verifier Deployment
Starknet core development members announced the launch of Catnet, a custom OP_CAT-enabled Bitcoin signet that will be used to test Bitcoin Circle STARK Verifier deployments on the X platform. Abdel added that the faucet is coming soon.
▌Aethir Launches Decentralized Cloud Computing Network on Ethereum
According to a press release, the blockchain project Aethir is launching its decentralized cloud computing network on the Ethereum mainnet, which aims to find underutilized graphics processing units (GPUs) for intensive tasks such as AI model training and gaming. The project recently raised $120 million in a node sale.
▌Figure Launches Blockchain Private Loan Marketplace Figure Connect
Figure Technology Solutions has launched Figure Connect, a blockchain-based private credit marketplace designed to improve market liquidity by standardizing sales terms and documents. The platform allows investors to commit funds before loans are issued and uses blockchain technology to achieve greater transparency and immutability, reducing repeated third-party audits.
Currently, Figure Connect has two loan originators, The Loan Store and Movement Mortgage, and two loan buyers, Bayview Asset Management and Saluda Grade. Figure plans to create a TBA market similar to the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage markets, improving liquidity and lowering interest rates through standardization and guarantees.
Figure Chairman and Founder Mike Cagney is preparing for the IPO of Figure Technology Services and serves as CEO of Figure Markets, an upcoming cryptocurrency and securities exchange.
▌Data: Bitcoin's average annual return is as high as about 104%
Since its first transaction in 2011, Bitcoin has had an average annual return of about 104%, exceeding the returns of Warren Buffett's portfolio and the U.S. stock market. According to data from the Lazy Portfolio ETF, Warren Buffett's portfolio has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 10.03% over the past 30 years, with a standard deviation of 13.67%. In contrast, the U.S. corporate stock portfolio has provided roughly the same returns, but with a higher standard deviation. In contrast, Bitcoin's average annual return has been as high as about 104% since its first transaction in 2011.
▌Bitcoin mining companies' output fell by about 40% month-on-month in May
According to Farside Investors data, major Bitcoin mining companies have announced their production data for May 2024. May was the first full month since the halving, and production fell by about 40% month-on-month.
▌Bitwise: Ethereum's Q1 revenue exceeds Robinhood, Etsy, Yelp and Reddit
Bitwise research analyst Ryan Rasmussen posted on social media that crypto applications built on Ethereum generate revenue comparable to some listed companies. In the first quarter of 2024, Ethereum's revenue exceeded Robinhood, Etsy, Yelp and Reddit.
▌U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF increased its holdings by 1,805 bitcoins on June 10
According to Lookonchain monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF data on June 10 showed: BlackRock increased its holdings by 2,437 bitcoins, worth approximately US$170.24 million. BlackRock currently holds a total of 304,977 bitcoins, worth approximately US$21.3 billion; Grayscale reduced its holdings by 545 bitcoins, worth approximately US$38 million, and currently holds a total of 285,106 bitcoins, worth approximately US$19.92 billion; 9 Bitcoin ETFs increased their holdings by a total of 1,805 bitcoins, worth approximately US$126.12 million.
▌Nansen: Provided some data on specific wallet categories to Matter Labs
Nansen posted a clarification on the X platform to dispel some confusion in the community about the zkSync airdrop. Nansen provided Matter Labs with some data on specific wallet categories, such as huge users and known scammers, but did not take anti-sybil measures or make recommendations on the airdrop allocation itself. If you see someone tweeting a distorted truth, they are spreading false information. Congratulations to all ZK holders, and Nansen will provide support to all other participants in the zkSync ecosystem.
▌LayerZero: Symbiotic will be integrated into the LayerZero DVN framework
LayerZero Labs announced on the X platform that Symbiotic will land on LayerZero. Through Ethena Labs, Symbiotic will be integrated into the LayerZero DVN framework, enabling users to pledge ENA to ensure the cross-chain transfer of Ethena assets.
Cryptocurrency
▌DACFP founder: US financial advisors are beginning to accept Bitcoin
Ric Edelman, founder of the Digital Asset Financial Professionals Council (DACFP), said that US financial advisors are now more willing to include Bitcoin in their portfolios because they see data showing an increase in risk-adjusted returns.
Ric Edelman said that in the past three months, there has been an 80% increase in financial advisors willing to include BTC in their portfolios within the next year, thanks to the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January and the entry of asset management giant BlackRock.
▌Subsidiary of Spain's second-largest bank BBVA launches cryptocurrency custody service in Turkey
Garanti BBVA, the Turkish subsidiary of BBVA, Spain's second-largest bank with assets of $700 billion, has begun offering crypto custody services. The bank said in a statement: "Garanti BBVA Digital Assets now allows customers to transfer and store BTC, ETH and USDC assets on its mobile platform Garanti BBVA Crypto."
Garanti BBVA Executive Vice President Çağrı Süzer said the pilot study of the new service was successful. He said: "The beta version of the Garanti BBVA Crypto application has previously provided this service to some customers, and now it is available to all customers. Although we initially provide services for BTC, ETH and USDC, we will continue to grow in the future by increasing the diversity of assets and service infrastructure." Bloomberg ETF analyst: Everyone thinks tokenization is important Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said on the X platform, "Today, at the Proof of Talk inside the Louvre, I had an enlightening discussion with 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder, digital asset analyst Matthew Sigel and Jason Xavier. Everyone thinks that tokenization is important, but it may not be a substitute for ETFs. Sigel predicts that the scale of Bitcoin ETFs will exceed $500 billion in the United States within 5 years, and Snyder said that the world may exceed this number. They all think that I may underestimate the demand for Ethereum ETFs. They plan to position it as a "production technology stock" and "the ultimate application store", which is very different from the propaganda of Bitcoin." left;">▌Trump: Bitcoin mining is the "last line of defense" against CBDC
Former U.S. President Trump posted on Truth Social, saying that Bitcoin mining is the "last line of defense" against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and emphasized that Bitcoin should be mined in the United States. After this statement was made, Bitcoin mining stocks generally rose on Wednesday. TeraWulf shares rose nearly 20% to $4.13 at one point, and then fell back to $3.96, about 14% higher than the previous day's closing price. MicroStrategy and Hive Digital Technologies stocks rose about 7% and 8%, respectively, and Iris Energy rose about 3%.
▌Biden campaign in talks to accept cryptocurrency donations through Coinbase Commerce
U.S. President Joe Biden's campaign is in discussions with cryptocurrency industry players to accept cryptocurrency donations through Coinbase Commerce, according to people familiar with the matter. Coinbase Commerce, a payment service that allows merchants to accept dozens of cryptocurrencies, has already provided crypto donations to Republican candidate Donald Trump's campaign, which began accepting digital currency donations last month.
According to anonymous sources, the discussions are the latest efforts by the Biden campaign to explore how to win over cryptocurrency supporters before the election. One source said the Biden team may be seeking sponsorship through well-funded cryptocurrency supporters. A source who works with politicians and crypto industry leaders said: "They are looking at the problems in the crypto industry and trying to find quick wins to show that they support the industry and they want to show that they are not the enemy."
▌Yesterday IBIT trading volume exceeded $1 billion
According to HODL15Capital monitoring, the data of the US spot Bitcoin ETF yesterday (June 12) showed that Grayscale GBTC had no inflows or outflows.
In addition, yesterday IBIT's trading volume exceeded $1 billion.
▌CryptoQuant: Bitcoin transfers from mining pools to exchanges hit a two-month high this week
According to a report from CryptoQuant, transfers from Bitcoin (BTC) mining pools to exchanges hit a two-month high this week as BTC hovered around $70,000. Bitcoin halving has led to a drop in daily mining revenue, and miners are looking to sell Bitcoin through over-the-counter (OTC) platforms to make a profit. On June 10, miners sold at least 1,200 Bitcoins, the highest daily trading volume in two months. Since the beginning of June, Marathon Digital has sold 1,400 Bitcoins worth $98 million. The report added that miners' daily revenue was $35 million, down 55% from the peak of $78 million in March.
Important Economic Dynamics
▌The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week is 99.4%
According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 99.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.6%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by August is 91.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.1.
▌The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 87.6%
According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 87.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 12.4%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by September is 29.8%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 62.0%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 8.2%.
▌The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes have continued to hit record closing highs for four consecutive trading days
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.34%, the S&P 500 up 0.23%, and the Dow down 0.17%. Among them, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indexes have continued to hit record closing highs for four consecutive trading days. Large technology stocks have risen and fallen alternately, Nvidia rose more than 3%, Tesla rose more than 2%, Apple, Microsoft, and Netflix rose slightly; Amazon and Google fell more than 1%, and Meta fell slightly. Among them, Apple's total market value at closing was 3.29 trillion US dollars, surpassing Microsoft's 3.28 trillion US dollars, regaining the top spot in the U.S. stock market. Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft all continued to hit new closing highs.
Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish a correct investment philosophy and be sure to raise your risk awareness.
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