Global virtual currency trends: Multiple changes in regulation, market, and technology

The global cryptocurrency and digital finance sectors have seen a flurry of activity recently. From the refinement of regulatory policies in various countries, subtle shifts in market data, to the technological deployments of traditional giants and tech companies, each development is reshaping the industry landscape. While these developments reflect the general trend of digital finance towards regulatory compliance, they also expose the risks and uncertainties that remain in the market. Investors, practitioners, and regulators alike must closely monitor the underlying logic behind these trends.

1. Regulation: Global Paths Diverge, Compliance Becomes the Core Keyword

Regulatory attitudes towards encryption and digital finance in different countries and regions are showing the characteristics of "targeted and precise policy implementation." On the one hand, there is strict control over risk areas, and on the other hand, there is active exploration of compliance innovation. Under these two parallel approaches, the boundaries of the industry are gradually becoming clear.

In China, the attitude of regulators has always revolved around "preventing and controlling risks and serving the real economy." On the one hand, the National Natural Science Foundation of China launched the "Research on Global Stablecoin Risk Governance and Cross-border Collaborative Regulatory System" project, aiming to provide theoretical support and policy reserves for my country's participation in global digital financial governance. This indicates that the regulatory framework for stablecoins, as a key vehicle connecting traditional finance and the digital economy, is accelerating. On the other hand, the Guangzhou Intermediate People's Court recently invalidated a 1.024 million yuan contract for the sale of virtual currency mining equipment, explicitly stating that "mining is energy-intensive and virtual currency trading is illegal financial activity," directly denying the legality of such activities and once again sending a strong signal of a crackdown on virtual currency speculation. The Study Times, a publication affiliated with the Central Party School, also published an article emphasizing that understanding the technical principles and trust logic of stablecoins is a prerequisite for seizing opportunities in digital finance, indirectly confirming the industry consensus that "compliance is the lifeline of innovation." Meanwhile, in the United States, regulation is moving towards "clarifying rules and promoting compliance." H.R. 5166, introduced by the House of Representatives, plans to have the Treasury Department evaluate the feasibility of establishing a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" and a "U.S. Digital Asset Reserve." If enacted, this would mark the first time the U.S. government has officially included Bitcoin in its strategic asset considerations, paving the way for the mainstream adoption of digital assets. SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins has also publicly clarified that "most tokens are not securities." This statement directly eliminates long-standing legal uncertainty for on-chain financing and clarifies the financing path for compliant projects. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also indirectly affecting the crypto market. The U.S. core CPI annual rate remained at 3.1% in August, but initial jobless claims exceeded expectations. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes even believes the cut could reach 50 basis points. In this low-interest environment, money market funds may flow into the DeFi sector, injecting liquidity into the market.

II. Market: A Mixed Rise and Fall, with Structural Opportunities and Risks

The crypto market has recently presented a complex landscape characterized by volatility in core assets, accelerated institutional investment, and a looming exit wave. While this signals positive institutional capital inflows, it also signals the release of risks in some areas. Investors must rationally identify opportunities.

At the institutional level, "traditional assets on-chain" has become a new trend. Global asset management giant BlackRock is exploring the tokenization of ETFs, planning to tokenize real-world assets like stocks on a blockchain. Its previously launched tokenized money market fund, BUIDL, has already surpassed $2 billion in assets, further bridging the gap between traditional finance and blockchain. Nasdaq has also submitted a proposal to the SEC to allow trading of tokenized securities, including stocks and ETFs, on its main board. If approved, US investors could see the first token-settled securities transactions in the third quarter of 2026, bringing the concept of "security tokenization" one step closer to practical implementation. However, this market also presents risks. The "exit wave" of the Ethereum PoS network continues to ferment. Currently, the number of ETH waiting for exit has reached 2.646 million, worth approximately US$11.6 billion, and the waiting time for exit is nearly 46 days. This data has reached a record high, reflecting the concerns of some validators about the current Ethereum ecosystem returns or market prospects; Coinbase Research Director David Duong pointed out that the digital asset treasury (DAT) has entered the "PvP stage". The scarcity premium of early players has disappeared, and competition has shifted to execution and differentiation. The net value premium of leading institutions such as MicroStrategy has shrunk, which also suggests that the risks of institutional layout of digital assets are increasing.

III. Technology: Blockchain Empowers the Real Economy, with Compliance Innovation Becoming Mainstream

The application of blockchain technology is moving beyond the single scope of "cryptocurrency" and shifting towards empowering the real economy. The deployment of both technology companies and traditional giants further highlights the core direction of the "technology services industry."

Ant Digital Technology's actions are particularly representative. It is connecting $8.4 billion worth of energy infrastructure to the blockchain platform AntChain and currently tracks power data and fault information for 15 million new energy devices (such as wind turbines and solar panels). This initiative combines blockchain's immutability and traceability with the energy industry, improving energy management efficiency while laying the foundation for the subsequent digitization of energy assets. Ant Group CEO Han Xinyi further clarified that exploring the token economy requires "equal emphasis on risk prevention and control and value creation," and resolutely refrains from issuing virtual currencies or engaging in speculation. This position sets clear boundaries for technology companies' involvement in digital finance. Globally, the number of "blockchain + real economy" cases is increasing. Whether it's putting energy assets on-chain, tokenizing ETFs, or tokenizing securities, blockchain technology is essentially used as a tool to address efficiency and trust issues in traditional industries, rather than creating new speculative targets. This trend of shifting from virtual to real is also gradually realizing the commercial value of blockchain technology, moving beyond its previous stage of pure hype. Conclusion: Digital Finance Enters a Phase of "Intensive Cultivation" Recent global developments clearly demonstrate that the crypto and digital finance sectors have bid farewell to "unbridled growth" and entered a new phase of "intensive cultivation." On the regulatory front, countries are refining rules to distinguish between "compliant innovation" and "risky speculation." Market-wise, institutional investors are favoring projects that "integrate with the real economy and have clear application scenarios." On the technical side, blockchain's value is returning to "serving the industry," rather than hype. For participants, future opportunities will no longer come from "blindly following the trend" but from grasping compliance trends, understanding technological applications, and discerning the needs of the real economy. Only by adhering to the principles of "compliance, real economy, and innovation" can one gain a foothold in the new cycle of digital finance. Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should view cryptocurrency investments rationally based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals, and should not blindly follow the trend.