Gold and US assets will be the "winners" after the attack on Iran.

What is certain is that the United States and Israel are seeking a complete regime change in Iran. According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel claims that Saturday's joint attack killed Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Other Iranian leaders remain primary targets. It is too early to draw conclusions, but the intensity of this full-scale offensive suggests that the regional conflict may escalate further before it improves. While energy markets and the global economy will be widely impacted, investors should carefully assess the potential consequences of the conflict before rushing to buy on dips. Financial markets should prioritize risk aversion until the losses can be quantified and reasonably assessed. The US leadership must have realized that Iran's participation in the Geneva talks over its nuclear capabilities over the past two weeks has been merely a delaying tactic. Iranian negotiators have failed to make even the smallest concessions to their US counterparts—namely, the permanent and complete dismantling of uranium enrichment facilities, which could have averted war. The two sides were originally scheduled to continue negotiations at the International Atomic Energy Agency meeting in Vienna next week, but the US clearly felt there was no reason to wait a few more days, only to find out that Iran had no intention of making any substantial concessions. Therefore, the US and Israel seized the last remaining opportunity for a surprise attack after a massive military buildup in the region over the past few weeks, striking Iranian missile and drone launch sites, military command facilities, and targets in the capital. Now, the fog of war has enveloped the region. At first glance, the infrastructure damage appears limited—the US has not destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities or key oil export terminals in the region—but this appearance may be misleading. In the coming days and possibly weeks, the US attacks and Iranian retaliation are likely to escalate. The Iranian regime faces collapse and has no way out. In fact, it now has ample motivation to attack regional energy infrastructure, thereby triggering a global economic shock. This could weaken American public support for the war and the determination of US leaders to push the war to the end until regime change. This could also fuel global opposition to the US and Israel, which would benefit the Iranian regime should it survive. Even if initial actual damage appears limited, investors should prepare for the inevitable disruption of regional energy supplies. The Iranian leadership has signaled its intention to close the crucial Strait of Hormuz—through which approximately 20% of the world's oil and 15% of its liquefied natural gas are transported. Shipping through the strait is already spontaneously decreasing. If the attack successfully affects ships, oil wells, pipelines, or ports, the disruption will no longer be voluntary or temporary. The direct market impact will be: a decline in global stock markets and a strengthening of global safe-haven assets. Gold will continue its bull market. If an actual disruption to oil supply means a non-speculative rise in oil prices, thus suppressing consumer demand, then US Treasury bonds will particularly benefit. If global economic growth slows due to this turmoil, global stock markets are likely to decline, but US stocks should perform relatively better. Over the past year, we've seen a trend of funds flowing into European, Japanese, and Chinese stock markets. This trend will be difficult to sustain if the profits and profit margins of companies in these energy-import-dependent manufacturing economies suffer unexpected shocks. Other stock markets in the Americas will also benefit relatively, as they can rely on local oil supplies and are far from conflict zones. Investors should only buy global stocks on dips and sell oil on rallies when it is clear that war damage will not affect energy supplies. Until then, they should not do so.