Google searches show retail investor interest peaking; AI tokens fall

Author: Omkar Godbole, CoinDesk; Compiler: Wuzhu, Golden Finance

• Top tokens allegedly related to artificial intelligence (AI) fell more than 20% in seven days.

• Google Trends shows public interest in AI is peaking.

Historically,spikes in Google search queries related to cryptocurrency have typically occurred during major market peaks, validating legendary investor Warren Buffett’s mantra of “buy in doom and sell in boom.”Now, a similar dynamic appears to be playing out in the market for tokens allegedly related to artificial intelligence (AI).

The market value of so-called AI tokens such as FET, RNDR, TAO and GRT has fallen 30% over the past seven days, according to Coingecko, while Google Trends suggests that search interest in artificial intelligence may have peaked.

FET is among the fourth worst performing 100 cryptocurrencies over the past seven days. Market leader Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen just 2.8% over the same period, while the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), which measures the broader cryptocurrency market, has fallen 6%.

Google Trends is widely used to measure general or retail investor interest in hot topics. It shows that the value of the search query "AI" over the past 12 months peaked at 100 last week. This is the same value as it has been for the past five years. A score of 100 represents peak popularity -- the maximum number of searches for a query observed in a given time frame.

Search interest in AI. (Google Trends)

In other words, enthusiasm for AI has hit the mainstream, with more and more existing and potential retail investors seeking out information about AI and Nasdaq-listed chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), the bellwether for all things AI.

While only indicative, the tool could be a good indicator to watch, as the masses tend to be driven by sentiment and are often the last to enter bull markets and exit bear markets. For example, searches for BTC and Solana’s SOL surged during their price highs in May and November 2021, respectively.

Notably, Bitcoin is known to have a strong positive correlation with NVDA, but bottomed out along with tech stocks in late 2022 after ChatGPT’s debut raised general awareness of AI. According to Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist at GMO, the AI rally represents a potential bubble within a bubble that could soon pop.

This insight could prompt caution when considering investment decisions.