GSR Markets: Spot Solana ETF Could Be 9 Times the Price of SOL

Author: Brayden Lindrea, CoinTelegraph; Compiler: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

Crypto market maker GSR Markets said that the U.S. spot Solana exchange-traded fund could increase the price of SOL by nine times.

In a June 27 report, the company described Solana as part of the "cryptocurrency triumvirate" and examined whether Solana would be the next spot cryptocurrency ETF to be approved by U.S. regulators.

Coincidentally, GCR's report was released on the same day that VanEck applied to issue a spot Solana ETF, which surprised many.

GSR, which holds a long position in SOL, reaches an estimate of “8.9x” based on the assumption that, based on the relative market cap size of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the spot Solana ETF will absorb 14% of the flows of spot Bitcoin ETFs since their launch in January.

GSR’s “best case scenario” would see Solana’s current price increase from $149 to over $1,320, and Solana’s market cap would increase to $614 billion (at current supply).

Meanwhile, GSR’s “bear case” and “baseline” scenarios would see the spot Solana ETF take 2% and 5% of Bitcoin, which would trigger a 1.4x and 3.4x increase in Solana’s price, respectively.

The firm said those estimates could be larger if the spot Solana ETF included staking reward income — even though the approved spot Ether ETF does not allow for staking.

“Solana is ready to launch a spot ETF if the U.S. allows additional spot digital asset ETFs, and that could have the biggest impact on price yet.”

Despite GSR’s optimism, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and others believe that changes in the U.S. president and SEC chairman are necessary for a spot Solana ETF to be seriously considered.

The SEC and its chairman Gary Gensler labeled the SOL token a security in their lawsuit against Binance and Coinbase, arguably making the path to approval much more difficult than the now-approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

VanEck’s application comes a week after crypto asset manager 3iQ filed for a spot Solana ETF in Canada, a first for North America.

Solana’s recent price performance and key developments. Source: GSR

The Solana ecosystem and network have also received praise from $1.5 trillion asset manager Franklin Templeton, but the firm has not confirmed a future spot Solana ETF.

Over $1 billion worth of Solana exchange-traded products are already available worldwide.