Bloomberg Industry Research strategist Mike McGlone:He has changed his long-term view on the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market, believing that investors should “abandon” all expectations of a rally in risky assets in 2026. Excessive speculation, the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and historically low volatility are all warning signs. Bitcoin has transformed from a tool for hedging market risk into part of the market system, which has changed everything. The explosive rise in gold, rather than being a sign of strength, is a signal of deeper instability. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodities Strategist Mike McGlone: Ethereum appears to be moving towards the lower end of the $2,000 to $4,000 range it has been trading in since 2023. I believe the risk of it falling below $2,000 is higher than the possibility of it rising back above $4,000, especially given the renewed volatility in the stock market. Glassnode: Bitcoin is currently trading below its 75% supply cost basis, indicating increasing distribution pressure. The risks have risen, and unless the price recovers to current levels, downside risks will dominate. Bitfinex Alpha: Bitcoin's upward attempt stalled, with the price failing to hold the $95,000 to $98,000 resistance level and falling back into the established range. After reaching a high of $97,850 in mid-January, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 10%, breaking below its year-opening price. Spot buying momentum has weakened, and ETF outflows have intensified. Derivatives positions have been adjusted in an orderly manner, and volatility remains limited to short-term contracts, indicating that market caution is event-driven rather than driven by a broader shift in market mechanisms. Without a recovery in spot and ETF demand, Bitcoin may continue to trade within a range until a clearer demand catalyst emerges.
Matrixport: Bitcoin remains in a correction phase after breaking below key technical levels. The 21-week moving average is a core indicator for observing the shift between bullish and bearish trends in Bitcoin. Historically, this moving average has provided good follow-up signals during uptrends and often warns of risks before sharp pullbacks, helping investors avoid significant downward volatility. Looking back at the current price action, when Bitcoin broke below the 21-week moving average in the fourth quarter, it signaled a potential for further market correction. Although a rebound occurred in late December, the price quickly came under pressure and fell back after approaching the 21-week moving average, failing to regain a foothold above it. Based on this assessment, Bitcoin's overall structure is currently still in a correction phase. A tactical rebound is possible in the short term, but so far, there are no clear signals sufficient to support a new round of sustained upward movement. Cryptocurrency analyst Titan: Bitcoin has just issued a bearish signal, with the MACD showing a bearish crossover within a two-month timeframe. Historically, similar strategies have often resulted in 50% to 64% drawdowns. Merlijn The Trader: Bitcoin price has now returned to the uptrend line support level (support between $89,000 and $90,000). A break below this level could see us back towards the lower end of the range, around $84,000. Trader CrypNuevo: Currently, the price is losing mid-range support, a bearish signal indicating further declines towards the lower end of the range. Based on factors such as Bitcoin breaking below the mid-range price, downward liquidation at high timeframes (HTF), and the potential US government market shutdown, we still believe the most likely scenario is that Bitcoin will fall back to around $80,000 in the coming weeks. Trading resource website Kobeissi Letter: Market weakness due to the prospect of another US government shutdown in the coming days. Prepare for a challenging week; earnings season is here, but multiple headwinds are mounting. Macro researcher and FFTT founder Luke Gromen: In the absence of major market catalysts, institutional investors are unlikely to push Bitcoin from its current level of around $90,000 to $150,000 this year. He points out that institutions typically adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than chasing highs without clear events driving the market. Potential key variables include the progress of the US CLARITY Act and whether the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates. However, in extreme scenarios, such as a full-blown trade war or economic recession, Bitcoin could even fall back to $60,000, triggering forced selling by companies holding the cryptocurrency. Binance founder CZ: I don't trade; I just hold Bitcoin and BNB. Many years ago, I tried trading and suffered losses. Later, I realized that I'm a developer, not a trader. It's impossible to predict short-term price fluctuations in Bitcoin, but long-term performance is relatively easy to forecast. Looking at a one-year timeframe, I'm uncertain about 2026, but I have a strong feeling that Bitcoin will enter a supercycle in 2026. Historically, Bitcoin typically follows a four-year cycle. Looking back at historical data, a new all-time high occurs roughly every four years, followed by a correction. However, I believe that this year, with the US so supportive of crypto and other countries following suit, we are likely to see this change, and it might even break the previous four-year cycle. Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua: This round is in an interest rate hike cycle. BTC has broken new highs, but the overall crypto market performance is poor, making this the most difficult period in the past four years. With the arrival of the interest rate cut cycle, he is optimistic about the start of a bull market, and ETH is expected to outperform BTC. Historical bull markets also show that ETH's gains are better than BTC's. The four-year cycle pattern has become invalid, and now is the best time to buy crypto, especially ETH. Stablecoins and on-chain financial services related to US Treasury bonds present huge opportunities, and ETH will be the biggest beneficiary. Pantera: Since December 2024, most non-Bitcoin tokens have been in a bear market. The total market capitalization of tokens excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins has fallen by about 44% from its peak at the end of 2024. Bitcoin fell by only about 6% in 2025, Ethereum fell by 11%, Solana fell by 34%, while other tokens excluding BTC, ETH, and SOL fell by almost 60%, with the median token falling by about 79%. This downturn was primarily driven by macroeconomic shocks, leveraged liquidations, and structural issues related to token value accumulation. However, the adjustment period is similar in length to previous bear markets. If fundamentals stabilize, 2026 may present a more favorable market environment. Coinbase Institutional: After the adjustment at the end of 2025, the crypto market's structural foundation is more solid in the first few months of 2026. The report emphasizes that market positioning is improving and the market environment is more balanced, a situation that will continue into the first quarter. David Duong, Global Head of Investment Research at Coinbase Institutional, stated, "While the shadow cast by last year's high-leverage liquidations has not completely dissipated, we remain constructive about the crypto market outlook for early 2026. There are still several reasons to be optimistic about the first quarter of 2026." The macroeconomic environment is acting as a buffer. While uncertainties remain regarding monetary policy, geopolitics, and regulation, these risks are increasingly being priced in and reflected in market positioning rather than triggering sudden, sharp fluctuations, thus leading to more rational and restrained market reactions. ARK Invest's "Big Ideas 2026" report projects that the total market capitalization of the crypto market will expand to approximately $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin accounting for approximately $16 trillion, or about 60%–70%. Based on a fixed supply of 21 million Bitcoins, the price of Bitcoin could reach approximately $760,000, representing a 7.6-fold increase from the current price. The report argues that Bitcoin is solidifying its status as a "digital gold" store of value, benefiting from institutional participation, spot ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and declining volatility; currently, US spot Bitcoin ETFs and listed companies collectively hold approximately 12% of the Bitcoin supply. The report also predicts that smart contract platforms will become a major growth engine besides Bitcoin, with a combined market capitalization potentially reaching approximately $6 trillion by 2030. Fundstrat Research Director Tom Lee stated that due to geopolitical tensions, the cryptocurrency and stock markets may experience a "painful decline" in 2026, but a rebound is expected by the end of the year. The situation in 2026 will be similar to 2025, with the blockchain and AI industries still benefiting, but the risks of tariffs and political divisions will initially limit sustained market gains. Lee anticipates a 15% to 20% correction in the stock market this year, but he stated, "I think we'll have a strong finish to the year," partly due to the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and the end of last year's quantitative tightening. He also mentioned that the White House's selection of "winners and losers" could influence the performance of various industries this year. The report indicates that BTC will reach a new all-time high this year, but makes no mention of the $250,000 Bitcoin price prediction made several months ago. Cryptocurrency trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe: For the first time in history, Bitcoin may be showing a bullish divergence against silver on a 3-day timeframe, suggesting extremely high market volatility in the coming week. This could indicate that the indicator has bottomed out, and therefore, silver prices may have peaked, with funds potentially shifting to other assets.
Anais
Joy
Catherine
Kikyo
Weatherly