How far away is it before Ethereum spot ETF is approved?

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

I expressed this view in my article the day before yesterday: Compared with the previous bull market, the next round of bull market will be different in some aspects. Big difference.

One of these differences is more and larger airdrops, while the other is the entry of more and larger institutional investors.

The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF is the beginning of the entry of more and larger institutions.

I believe that there is a high probability that the door will be opened for more institutions to enter the market, such as the Ethereum ETF, which is highly anticipated by the industry.

As for the Ethereum ETF, in fact, big capital has already made plans. For example, BlackRock Capital submitted relevant applications to the SEC as early as last year. However, the news did not receive much attention at the time. It was not until the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved that everyone focused on the Ethereum ETF again.

Some people in the industry even optimistically estimate that the Ethereum ETF will be approved in May or July this year.

I am cautiously optimistic about this: Cautious means that it is difficult to judge when the Ethereum ETF will be approved. Optimistic means that I estimate that there is a high probability that it will eventually be approved, and this time will not be too soon. Near but not too long (like two years or even longer).

I guess, from the perspective of regulatory agencies, there are two factors that must be grasped to approve Ethereum ETF:

Firstly, About rhythm control.

The second is about risk control.

The control of pace means that the SEC has already approved the Bitcoin ETF. If another ETF is approved in the short term, it will inevitably leave a "rushed" and "sloppy" impression. impression. As one of the top regulators in the U.S. financial world, that impression is certainly inappropriate.

We can also see this from the SEC Chairman’s speech after approving the Bitcoin ETF. His speech revealed his caution about the current situation of Bitcoin. I think this speech is deliberately "pouring cold water" on the market, and I don't want the market to have too high expectations for regulation in the short term.

As for risks, the main question is whether Ethereum is considered a security in the eyes of the SEC?

The current SEC Chairman has expressed this view on many occasions, but these views are inconsistent. His earlier view was that Ethereum was not considered a security, but he later expressed caution and no longer even expressed his attitude directly.

I think the reason for his statement is that he hopes to continue to observe the development of Ethereum and learn more about the risks, so as to plan a better supervision method for Ethereum-related products.

Although regulatory agencies are cautious about Ethereum, I believe that regulatory agencies can also see that the current Ethereum ecosystem has shown a thriving trend. This situation has demonstrated the innovative nature and great potential of crypto assets and crypto technology.

It is impossible for supervision to stop this trend.

This is speculation from a regulatory perspective.

If you look at it from the perspective of institutions and big capital, I think they will have stronger profit motives and more practical business purposes to promote the adoption of the Ethereum ETF.

Recently @RyanSAdams, the co-founder of the well-known overseas encryption media Bankless, left a message on Twitter:

Get ready for:

BlackRock Chain (L2 )

BlackRock Dollar (BRUSD)

BlackRock Assets (tokenized ERC20s)

That's why Larry Fink is doing the roadshow.

First Bitcoin ETF, then Ethereum ETF, then tokenization. He's literally telling us the plan.

The translation of this passage is:

Get ready:

贝Ryder Chain (L2)

BlackRock USD (BRUSD)

BlackRock Asset (Tokenized ERC20)

This is Larry Fink ( The head of BlackRock) is doing the road show.

First came the Bitcoin ETF, then the Ethereum ETF, and then tokenization. His plan is clear.

This passage is so insightful.

In my opinion, the ERC20 and tokenization mentioned in this paragraph are the tokenization of physical assets, which is the RWA track that the industry has always been optimistic about.

In previous articles and Twitter exchanges, I have expressed my views on the RWA track many times: this track is actually the fat of the organization.

The organization will not give up this huge benefit to other players under any circumstances.

Ethereum is a well-deserved and excellent platform that can quickly carry and realize this commercial interest. Therefore, institutions will definitely hope that Ethereum will be accepted by regulatory agencies as soon as possible so that they can have free reign.

Although the above does not seem to have been said by Larry Fink, and is just a guess, everyone can clearly see the internal logic and the great business potential contained in it. Benefit.

So as the world's top large capital, I don't believe that BlackRock's purpose of applying for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is just to provide customers with a financial management tool for crypto assets. He must have greater ambitions and Longer plans.

So for institutions and capital, their urgency and eagerness to promote the approval of Ethereum ETF will far exceed that of our retail investors.

I believe that in the future, these large institutions and big capital will interact frequently with the SEC overtly and covertly, and try their best to remove the regulatory obstacle that blocks their way to greater business interests. .