How far can the institutional bull market go after the interest rate cut?

Institutions are the driving force behind this market cycle. The four major cryptocurrencies, BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB, have all hit new highs, but only BTC and BNB have continued to rise by over 40% since breaking through their all-time highs. SOL achieved a breakthrough at the beginning of the year thanks to Trump's coin issuance, while ETH experienced a revaluation mid-year, driven by DAT buying, but neither has yet reached a new high. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last night. How far can this institutional-led market rally go? 1. Institutional Allocation Logic for the Three Major Cryptocurrencies The positioning of a cryptoasset directly determines its long-term value, and different positionings correspond to different institutional allocation logics. Bitcoin: The Anti-Inflation Properties of Digital Gold Positioned as "Digital Gold," its long-term logic is strongly tied to the fiat currency inflation cycle. Data shows that its market capitalization growth is synchronized with Global M2 and negatively correlated with the US dollar index. Its core value lies in "inflation resistance + value preservation and appreciation," making it a fundamental target for institutional allocation. Ethereum: The Institutional Narrative Dividend of the World Computer Positioned as a "World Computer," although the "Layer 2 Scaling" narrative promoted by the Foundation has not been recognized by the capital market, its stable system with 10 years of zero downtime has enabled it to capitalize on the development of institutional narratives such as US dollar stablecoins, RWAs, and the tokenization of US stocks, escaping the impact of the collapse of the Web3 narrative. Coupled with the key impetus of DAT, it has achieved a revaluation of its market capitalization. Leveraging its stability and security, Ethereum will become the settlement network for institutional applications. Solana: The Active Advantage of Internet Capital Markets Positioned as an "Internet Capital Market," ICM stands for on-chain asset issuance, trading, and clearing. It has achieved a resurgence following the collapse of FTX. Year-to-date, it accounts for 46% of on-chain trading volume, with over 3 million daily active users year-round, making it the most active blockchain network. Solana will leverage its superior performance and high liquidity to support the crypto-native on-chain trading ecosystem. The three platforms have distinct positioning, leading to different institutional investment strategies. Traditional financial institutions first understand the value of Bitcoin, then consider developing their institutional business based on Ethereum, and ultimately, may recognize the value of on-chain trading. This is a typical path: questioning, understanding, and becoming.

Institutional holdings of the second and third largest currencies show gradient differences

The institutional holdings of BTC, ETH, and SOL show a clear gradient difference, which also reflects the degree and pace of institutional recognition of these three projects.

Table created by: IOBC Capital

From the comparison, we can see that: BTC and ETH'sinstitutional holdings account for 18% of the circulating supply; SOL currently only9.5% In the past month or so, 18 SOL DAT companies have appeared one after another, directly pushing SOL up by more than 50% from its low point in August.

SOL DAT companies with louder voices:

Forward Industries, led by Multicoin Capital founder Kyle Samani, may become the SOL DAT leader. Unlike BTC DATs, which simply hoard coins, many SOL DAT companies will build their own Solana Validators, making this more than just a "NAV game." Rather than simply waiting for token appreciation, they instead generate continuous cash flow through the Validator business. This strategy is equivalent to "hoarding coins + mining," providing both long-term and immediate benefits. Fourth, Crypto Concept Stocks: A Reflection of Capital Market Bets Crypto concept stocks are a new bridge between traditional capital and the crypto market. The degree of recognition that the traditional financial market has for various crypto businesses is also reflected in the stock price performance of these crypto concept stocks. A review of the crypto stocks that have seen significant gains this round reveals two common characteristics: 1. A significant bet is required to achieve a valuation reassessment. Of the 189 listed companies holding BTC, only 30 hold holdings worth 70% of their market capitalization, and only 12 hold over 10,000 BTC—those 12 companies have seen significant gains. A similar pattern is observed for listed ETH DATs. A superficial DAT strategy can only cause short-term stock price fluctuations and fail to substantially boost market capitalization and liquidity. 2. Business synergy can amplify commercial value. Transforming a single-point business into a multifaceted industry chain layout can amplify commercial value. For example, Robinhood, through its investment in cryptocurrency trading, real-world asset trading (RRE), and participation in the USDG stablecoin, has formed a closed-loop business cycle for capital flow, leading to record highs in its stock price. Conversely, while Trump Media has also invested in cryptocurrencies (holding BTC, applying for an ETH ETF, and issuing tokens like Trump, Melania, and WLFI), the lack of synergy between its businesses has ultimately led to a lackluster market response to both its stock and its token.

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The project philosophies of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana correspond to the three instincts of human beings when facing the future - survival, order, and flow.