How the No Sell, No Buy New US BTC Reserve Plan Affects the Crypto Market

On March 11, 2025, the price of BTC fell below the $77,000 mark; ETH fell by more than 8%, and the market value prices of newly issued assets and well-known Meme Coins, such as XRP and DOGE, also fell significantly.

On March 6, 2025, Trump officially signed the executive order on the BTC strategic reserve and the US digital asset reserve, and held the first crypto asset summit at the White House. Many investors in the digital asset field attended the event. CNBC published an article stating that the volatility of BTC prices is due to investors' focus shifting from the White House crypto asset summit to macroeconomic pressure.

David Sacks, a U.S. digital asset regulatory official, believes that the BTC strategic reserve plan will not use fiscal funds to directly acquire digital assets, which can reduce the investment risks of crypto assets, but these plans may disappoint some people in the market.

About BTC Strategic Reserve

The United States will establish a BTC strategic reserve and use the BTC owned by the U.S. Treasury as the underlying capital for reserve management. These BTCs come from digital assets confiscated in judicial case executions. The BTC deposited in the strategic reserve will not be sold. In addition, Trump stated on Truth Social in March 2025 that he would also plan to reserve digital assets on ETH, XRP, Solana and Cardano, but the specific asset names have not yet been announced.

According to the executive order signed by Trump, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury and Secretary of Commerce must develop a "budget-neutral strategy" to acquire more BTC without imposing additional burden on taxpayers; the Secretary of the Treasury can determine a responsible reserve management strategy.

Before Trump signed the executive order to establish a BTC strategic reserve, there was no clear plan within the U.S. federal government agencies to manage digital assets, and there was an imbalance in the ownership, control, and management of the digital assets held.

Some media reports believe that Trump's formal signing of the executive order to establish a BTC strategic reserve will help solve the above-mentioned problems and explore one of the starting solutions for centralized and secure management of digital asset government reserves, but no more specific details of the regulatory plan have been disclosed yet.

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The First Crypto Asset Summit in the United States

According to the news released by Trump on the social platform, the participants of the first White House Crypto Asset Summit included government officials and legislative officials, as well as Michael Saylor, Executive Director of MicroStrategy; Brian Armstrong, co-founder and CEO of Coinbase; Zach Witkoff, founder of World Liberty Financial; investors Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss; entrepreneurs and digital asset reserve policy advocates David Bailey, Michael Saylor, Brian Armstrong and Brad Garlinghouse and other industry professionals. The participants expressed many valuable views on the development of the encryption industry and explained the support for the encryption industry and the establishment of BTC Reserve’s value stance is optimistic about the collaboration between the crypto industry and the government, and hopes that future regulatory enforcement will be clear.

Excerpts from the meeting

U.S. President Trump: I have a very positive and open attitude towards the development of the crypto asset industry. I have a positive and open attitude towards crypto asset companies and everything related to this emerging industry. Our country must be a leader in this space… From today on, there is one very clear rule that the U.S. government will follow — never sell BTC.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent:The United States will maintain the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and use Stabelcoins to achieve this goal.

David Sacks, the White House digital asset regulatory official appointed by Trump and known as the White House Crypto Czar, said on the X social platform: The plan to establish a BTC digital reserve should have been done long ago.

JP Richardson, co-founder and CEO of Bitcoin wallet developer Exodus:BTC strategic reserves are a focus of debate for many people. Although Trump also suggested that other digital assets besides BTC be included in the strategic reserves, I don’t think this is feasible. The crypto industry has come a long way, but it is still a relatively new industry.

Les Borsai, co-founder of Wave Digital Assets, a crypto asset investment advisory firm: This is the first time that crypto industry leaders feel like they are walking into a collaborative discussion.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse posted on the social platform X that XRP is one of the four other crypto assets that Trump suggested could be included in the strategic reserve.

Yesha Yadav, associate dean and professor of law at Vanderbilt University: What everyone really needs is clarity on the extent and intensity of regulatory scrutiny and clarity on who the primary regulator is... This could speed up the SEC's approval process for a large number of newly listed exchange-traded funds.

Image source: Internet

Analysts’ views on BTC market value fluctuations

On March 11, 2025, after the market value of digital assets such as BTC, ETH, and DOGE plummeted, different analysts analyzed the reasons for this market value fluctuation. The consensus is that the future price trend of BTC is closely related to US economic indicators; there is a high-risk game between BTC and the central bank, and the decline of the US dollar index may be beneficial to the bullish market value of crypto assets, but a cautious attitude is needed.

Analyst Views

TechFlow Media Views: From a technical analysis perspective, the recent price drop of BTC has not completely exceeded market expectations. However, market sentiment remains complicated. The decline in BTC’s market value may be related to the liquidation pressure of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which leads to a further decline in BTC prices in the short term.

Deutsche Bank analyst Marion Laboure:The BTC reserve plan signed by Trump lacks clear details, and there are uncertainties in the timetable, funding and distribution plan, which may lead to continued fluctuations in the market value of crypto assets.

Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts: Bitcoin is in a "high-risk showdown" with central banks. Regarding the market value prospects of BTC, a weakening US dollar index may be beneficial to BTC. It is worth being bullish, but caution should be maintained.

The US dollar index is an index that measures the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of other currencies. Data from Market Watch shows that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to 103.85 on March 10, 2025, hitting its lowest point in nearly four months, and the volatility of the U.S. dollar is expected to decline.

However, there are two indicators that may cause concern in the short term: Treasury volatility (MOVE index) and corporate bond spreads. Increased volatility in government bonds could lead to liquidity tightness, which could force central banks to intervene, which could be beneficial to the development of BTC market capitalization. Currently, the MOVE index remains stable but is trending upward. Additionally, corporate bond spreads have widened for three consecutive weeks, and reversals in corporate bond spreads have historically tended to coincide with BTC price tops.   

The research institution Bravos Research published an article on March 6, 2025:The decline in the US dollar index may become an important driving force for risky assets such as stocks and crypto assets.   Other bullish factors for crypto assets include: global strategic reserve competition for BTC, doubling of Bitcoin spot ETF positions, increased liquidity, etc.… Assuming long-term holders maintain low leverage - the odds of winning for BTC holders are gradually increasing.

BTSE Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei: It is expected that BTC may fall to between US$70,000 and US$80,000 in the next few weeks. Only when the tariff war ends and the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts, the market value of crypto assets will be expected to return to its highs.

DeFi analyst Adaora Favour Nwankwo: If a recession occurs, BTC's maximum drop will be around $50,000. If there is no recession, the expected floor price of BTC market capitalization will be between $70,000 and $75,000.

Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam pointed out in a report:The decline in BTC prices is due to the pressure on crypto assets caused by uncertainty in US regulation and general risk aversion.