Author: Riyue Xiaochu, member of Huzi Guanbi Source: X, @riyuexiaochu
1 Although the bull market is generally rising, hype is still centered on the sector. And if a coin soars, it will drive the hype of its sector.
2 There are opportunities everywhere in the bull market, but if you are greedy and want to grab them everywhere, it will definitely not be good in the end.
On the contrary, as long as you catch the main rising wave of a sector, it is enough to make you a lot of money. If you are lucky, catch the sector rotation and catch the main rising wave of 2 waves, then you will make unimaginable wealth.
3 What is different about this round of bull market is that there are many people with money and professional institutions.
So the trading strategy is adjusted to:
1) Instead of chasing hot spots, it is better to focus on good projects/sectors and dig deeper to get higher returns;
2) Join a group of professional people to keep warm;
3) The market value valuation of hot projects is relatively sufficient, and non-hot sectors may have high multiples;
4 It is necessary to distinguish between awesome and potential returns. A very awesome project may not make you money, and the reason is still that the market will fully price it. In other words, the ones that everyone is optimistic about may not necessarily have a very large increase.
I will select:
1) The market has certain recognition but not the whole people are optimistic about, as the key research objects, so the potential return is high and the risk is low;
2) The sector with low market popularity, as the mini warehouse lottery sector;
5 Although it is very refreshing to have a full position in one sector, it is also possible to miss the entire bull market, which is not recommended due to the high risk. It is recommended to use the method of concentration + limited number. Divide into several key points and secondary points. The overall control is within one number.
6 There are three situations of sector speculation:
1) Deterministic major events, such as the Shanghai upgrade leading to the speculation of LIDO and SSV, and the Arbitrum airdrop coin issuance triggering the rise of its ecological projects;
2) Sudden events. For example, the sudden popularity of ChatGPT triggered the outbreak of the AI sector. Similarly, the release of Sora also triggered a wave of increases. For example, in the second half of 2021, the popularity of the Metaverse triggered the craze of GameFi in the currency circle; 3) After a certain coin exploded, it became the leader, causing the popularity of its sector projects; Most of the time, the hype of the sector is uncertain, which is why we have to wait for the wind to come in the bull market. Because the time of hype cannot be determined. Only the first major event is relatively certain. But its disadvantage is that because of its strong certainty, the increase you can participate in may not be very large. That's because there are always many people who will lay out in advance. The most typical example is this year's Cancun upgrade, and the increase of ARB and OP lags behind other coins. In the previous bull market, there were two strategies: The first: all assets are heavily invested in certain sectors. What needs to be done is to wait for the wind to come in the bull market. The advantage is that it is easy to operate, so it is suitable for most people and those who are busy with daily work. The disadvantage is: you need to hold on. Holding on is a test of human nature. Especially when you see coins that make people rich everywhere, but your own is standing still.
For the number of specific sectors, I recommend 2 to 4. If you want one, it is also okay, but it requires a test of personal vision. Too many is risky and not recommended.
The second type: part of the position is lurking, and part of the position is added when the sector is hyped
The advantage is that you can advance or retreat, which is more flexible. But the disadvantage is that you need to be sensitive to the market, spend more experience, and always focus on the market.