How to stay forward-looking in crypto investing?

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

During the online exchange last Saturday, an audience member asked such a question:

When the Bitcoin inscription ecosystem emerged, many enthusiasts, including me, went deep into the inscription ecosystem, but now there are still many old OG players in the inscription ecosystem who have been stubbornly unwilling to come out.

Why did I feel that there might be problems with the inscription ecosystem last year? Then I came out and started a new exploration in the AI ​​agent ecosystem?

My answer at the time was:

This may be related to curiosity. I will try my best to stay interested in new things. Once I find something new, I will take a look first, and then there may be new explorations and attempts.

Furthermore, when it comes to the implementation method, I quoted a famous saying of Mr. Hu Shizhi during the exchange:

"Boldly hypothesize and carefully verify".

This sentence was originally used by Mr. Hu Shizhi to describe a method he used when doing academic research, but I think this method is also very appropriate in the investment field.

I remember writing repeatedly in the article:

For new things and new scenarios, I always like to look at its advantages and potential.

If you use this idea to guide yourself to examine new things, you can magnify the prospects and potential that new things may breed to a certain extent, and it can let us see the upper limit of the value that a new thing may generate.

With this upper limit, we have room for imagination when making investments and valuations.

This is a bold assumption.

When I estimate that a new thing has a certain imagination space and I am also interested in it, I will participate immediately.

I have also repeatedly written about my mentality after participating in the previous article:

I will look at its problems and shortcomings, mainly to see if there are any problems in these aspects:

Is there still a prospect for this track? Is the project team still in good condition? Is the project construction continuing to advance?

This is careful verification.

If there are problems in one or more of these aspects, I will be alert; if there are no major problems, I will continue to hold, but focus on exploring new directions.

In this round of the development of the inscription ecosystem, it gave me a lot of room for imagination at the beginning. But later, the development of the entire ecosystem did not make any major breakthroughs in technology, scenarios or applications. I think the main reason is probably limited by the limitations of Bitcoin's own technical architecture.

So after feeling this, I no longer focused on this ecosystem but turned to other directions, which led to the later exploration of DeSci and AI agents.

Not only did I have such a turn in this round of market, I also had similar experiences in the previous cycle:

From focusing on the DeFi ecosystem at the beginning to turning to NFT later.

The reason for the turn is also very similar: DeFi at that time was already weak.

Around mid-2021, the entire DeFi ecosystem basically no longer saw major innovations and applications. The overall situation of each track has basically taken shape, and new applications have only some micro-innovations at most, and the threshold for those micro-innovations is not high.

So my main focus began to turn to exploring new directions, and then I found that overseas communities began to pursue NFTs during that exploration, so my main focus has been on NFTs since then.

Although my main experience since then has been in NFTs, I have always held the DeFi tokens at the time, and basically held them until later when I sold Bitcoin and Ethereum and then sold them all together.