Inflation is no longer an obstacle to rate cuts, BTC will reach half the market value of gold

Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering the week's key news, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is one of the news weekly, taking you to a glance at the major events in the blockchain industry this week.

Headlines

▌Federal Reserve Megaphone: Inflation is no longer an obstacle to the Fed's rate cut

"Federal Reserve Megaphone" Nick Timiraos quickly commented on the Federal Reserve FOMC statement, saying that there was no clear signal at this meeting that interest rates would be cut in September, but there were some very meaningful changes in the first half of the statement: the dual mandate is back, and inflation has been reduced from "high" to "high to some extent."  

"Fed Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: The Fed statement said, "The committee is concerned about both aspects of its dual mission." The statement deleted the wording of "high attention" to inflation risks described by policymakers in the past two years. This shift is significant because it suggests that inflation may no longer be an obstacle to rate cuts, especially if the labor market continues to cool.

▌VanEck CEO: Bitcoin market value will reach half of the total market value of gold

VanEck CEO said that Bitcoin's market value will reach half of the total market value of gold, reaching $350,000 per coin.  

In addition, VanEck CEO also said that if central banks adopt Bitcoin and become part of the financial system, its value will reach "millions."

▌Trump campaign raised $21 million during 2024 Bitcoin Conference

Former U.S. President Donald J. Trump's campaign raised $21 million during the 2024 Bitcoin Conference. It is reported that the funds mainly came from a fundraising event after Trump's speech on Saturday, which was organized by Republican Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee and reportedly attended by 100 people. Bitcoin Magazine CEO said: "This is the second highest amount of money raised by Trump in his three presidential campaigns, and the funds come from a combination of industry and whales/OGs."  

Trump previously reported that he personally owned between $100,000 and $250,000 worth of cryptocurrency in 2022. According to documents from the Federal Election Commission, his campaign raised a total of $221 million and currently has $128 million in cash on hand.

▌Tether CEO: Tether is preparing to launch a new open source project

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino posted on the X platform that Tether is preparing to launch a new open source project, which will become an important part of the future ecosystem.

Policy

▌New York authorities announced charges against scammers who used "fake cryptocurrency asset recovery business"

Alvin Bragg, the U.S. District Attorney for the Manhattan District of New York, announced criminal charges against an individual for using "fake cryptocurrency asset recovery business" to defraud customers.  

In a notice on August 1, the New York District Attorney's Office said it had charged Michael Lauchlan with three counts of grand theft and two counts of fraud for stealing funds from Coin Dispute Network users. According to the district attorney, Michael Lauchlan claimed to be able to track and recover lost crypto assets, but in fact it defrauded customers of fees and stole Ethereum from at least three users.

▌The U.S. Senate Majority Leader introduced a bill to oppose the Supreme Court's partial support for Trump's immunity claim

On August 1, local time, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill to refute the previous Supreme Court's ruling on former President Trump's presidential immunity. According to this bill, the U.S. President and Vice President have no immunity for violations of federal criminal law while in office. The bill also clarifies that the government department responsible for deciding who federal criminal law applies to is Congress, not the Supreme Court. On July 1, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump enjoyed a certain degree of immunity from criminal prosecution in a federal case involving alleged "interference in the 2020 election," and instructed lower courts to reconsider the case and determine which actions are "official acts" that cannot be prosecuted.

▌U.S. Congressman Cynthia Lummis formally proposed the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming formally proposed the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act on July 31, local time, which would instruct the U.S. government to begin establishing a reserve fund for scarce decentralized assets. More specifically, the bill would establish a "decentralized secure Bitcoin network treasury" controlled by the U.S. Treasury Department, and the bill also instructs lawmakers and bureaucrats to develop strict cybersecurity parameters and other physical security measures to ensure that Bitcoin funds are not stolen. The bill also proposes a goal of gradually accumulating 1 million bitcoins.

▌Biden adviser joins Harris PAC, it is unclear whether it involves cryptocurrency

Anita Dunn, a senior adviser to US President Biden, is about to leave the White House and join Future Forward, a political action committee (PAC) organization supporting 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. The PAC plans to invest at least $300 million to support Harris' campaign.  

Anita Dunn has previously met with cryptocurrency industry representatives in a personal capacity to discuss digital asset regulation, but it is unclear whether cryptocurrency will be mentioned at PAC events.

▌Bernstein: Harris's cryptocurrency shift is unlikely to influence voters

Bernstein analysts believe that US Vice President Harris' latest shift in the cryptocurrency field is unlikely to influence key voters in the presidential election. Although Harris has actively reached out to crypto industry companies in an attempt to improve relations, her moves are seen as reactive and lack necessary policy changes. In contrast, former President Donald Trump won strong support from the crypto community through pro-crypto policies and direct engagement.

▌Bahamas Launches Digital Asset DARE 2024 Act

The Securities Commission of the Bahamas announced that the Bahamas Parliament has passed the Digital Assets and Registered Exchanges Act, 2024 (DARE 2024), a move that consolidates the country's position in the field of digital asset regulation. The bill builds on the foundation laid by the DARE Act of 2020 and introduces comprehensive reforms designed to address the changing landscape of the digital asset and cryptocurrency markets.  

Christina Rolle, Executive Director of the Bahamas Securities Commission, said: "DARE 2024 represents a new standard in digital asset regulation. The framework we have created not only focuses on investor protection, but also encourages responsible innovation, making the Bahamas a leader in global digital asset regulation."

▌Judge approves former FTX executive Ryan Salame's request to postpone prison

A U.S. federal judge approved a motion filed by lawyers for former FTX Digital Markets co-CEO Ryan Salame, delaying his jail time until October 13.

▌Crypto Lawyer: Harris Should Ask SEC Chairman to Resign to Show Her Attitude of Promoting the Development of Crypto Economy During Her Administration

Crypto supporter and well-known lawyer JohnE Deaton posted on the X platform that the most important thing that US Vice President Harris can do is to ask SEC Chairman Gary Gensler to resign immediately to show her serious attitude towards restarting Bitcoin and promoting the digital asset economy during her administration. It can be said that no one has caused more harm to individual investors than Gensler, including SBF.

Blockchain Applications

▌Base Blockchain Team Launches Customizable On-Chain Identity Tool Basenames

Base Product Head Thomas Vieira released a new product called Basenames at Coinbase's BaseCamp Summit on Thursday. This is a customizable on-chain identity tool designed to make blockchain addresses composed of letters and numbers easy to read.  

It is reported that users can connect many different wallets to the application, including MetaMask, Rainbow and Coinbase Wallet, to register names. There is also a webpage where users can search for other Basename addresses to interact and customize their profiles by adding personal profiles, social media accounts and relevant skills.  

The product will be available first to all BaseCamp participants and will be launched to the public in the coming weeks.

▌SEND: Solana mobile phone preorderers have 24 hours to claim SEND token airdrop

Blinks ecosystem project SEND posted on the X platform that it is conducting the first airdrop to the top communities on Solana, and each address holding Solana mobile phone preorder token Chapter2 Preorder Token can claim 500 SEND token airdrops for free. The claim window is only open for 24 hours, after which all unclaimed tokens will be reclaimed to the airdrop vault. 

Previously, Blinks project SEND released token economics, in which Blinks builders, Sendit NFT holders and top Solana communities were allocated a total of 25%.

▌Bitcoin L2 protocol sees adoption, but security still needs to be improved

At the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, dozens of protocols driving innovation in the Bitcoin blockchain were showcased. Bitlayer co-founder Charlie Hu said Franklin Templeton is exploring unlocking benefits for customers through the Bitcoin network by supporting protocols such as Bitlayer. Build On Bitcoin co-founder Alexei Zamyatin talked about the security issues of Bitcoin L2 and introduced research on the virtual machine BitVM. B2 Network co-founder Calvin believes that Bitcoin can be an entry point to the non-encrypted world and emphasizes the importance of continuing to build an infrastructure to expand Bitcoin.

▌Aave DAO launches Lido custom market and opens it to third-party developers

Aave DAO launched a custom pool designed specifically for Lido Finance's stETH and wstETH. The new Aave V3 ETH Lido pool paves the way for additional custom financial solutions in the future and is open to third-party developers, allowing them to build additional specialized pools that optimize for specific use cases.  

Lido will provide liquidity incentives to users and reward developers for innovating use cases using collateralized ETH to support further growth of the Lido ecosystem. Aave's V3 flexible architecture allows for multiple custom deployments to meet unique risk profiles, such as segregated collateral markets or institutional use cases.  

This new Lido pool is the first custom deployment on Aave V3, demonstrating the protocol's versatility and ability to optimize specific use cases.

Cryptocurrency

▌Miners turn to AI and chip manufacturing to expand their business after Bitcoin halving

The profit squeeze after Bitcoin halving has put pressure on the business model of Bitcoin miners, and some larger companies see this industry obstacle as an opportunity to expand their business or launch a hostile takeover. Consolidation is expected in the Bitcoin mining industry in the next 18 months. Colorado-based Riot Platforms announced on Tuesday that it has acquired Block Mining after a hostile takeover of another company, Bitfarms, last month.  

Other companies are diversifying their revenue through innovations such as artificial intelligence computing and chip manufacturing. Bitdeer only uses 36% of its electricity and is currently evaluating investing its electricity into AI and high-performance computing (HPC) companies to generate revenue. A large number of data centers are currently being built and evaluated for use as artificial intelligence or high-performance computing data centers. Bitdeer is also moving into making chips specifically for bitcoin mining.

▌VanEck Consultant: The logic of the Fed buying Bitcoin instead of Treasury bonds is based on the fixed total amount of Bitcoin

Gabor Gurbacs, a Tether strategist and VanEck consultant, said on the X platform that the logic of the Fed buying Bitcoin instead of US Treasury bonds is based on the fundamental difference between the two assets: one can be printed infinitely and the other cannot. This is essentially a hard asset acquisition strategy, similar to what central banks do with gold. By switching from Treasury bonds that can be printed at will to Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply, the Fed aims to diversify its asset holdings and potentially protect against inflation and monetary instability. In fact, this is a hedge against itself, which most central banks currently achieve mainly by holding gold. Bitcoin is increasingly being included in the hedge portfolio of central bank portfolios.

▌US Presidential Candidate Kennedy: Only Bitcoin Can Guarantee the Dollar's Reserve Currency Status

US Presidential Candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. believes that US policymakers are quickly realizing the "inevitability" of Bitcoin and are scrambling to develop a coherent digital asset strategy to maintain the United States' fiscal dominance. Kennedy said that only Bitcoin can guarantee the dollar's reserve currency status.

▌Solana-based PYUSD stablecoin has a supply of nearly $240 million since its launch in May

According to data from the Dune analytics dashboard cited by the Solana Foundation, the Solana-based PYUSD stablecoin currently has a supply of nearly $240 million since its launch in May. At the same time, the supply of the Ethereum-based PYUSD token is about $348 million. PYUSD on Ethereum was launched nearly a year ago.  

Sheraz Shere, general manager of payments at the Solana Foundation, said: "This rapid growth highlights the strength and efficiency of the Solana network."

▌BlackRock: It is expected that the allocation of crypto ETFs will be seen in model portfolios by the end of this year or next year

Samara Cohen, chief investment officer of BlackRock ETFs and index investments, discussed the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) and expects to see the allocation of crypto ETFs in model portfolios by the end of this year or in 2025.

▌Viewpoint: The United States will include Bitcoin in its balance sheet or strategic reserves in the next 10 to 15 years

Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital, predicts that the United States will include Bitcoin in its balance sheet or strategic reserves in the next 10 to 15 years, but the key lies in how active the United States is. Pompliano said that Bitcoin dominates his portfolio, while Solana is the second largest investment. Investment in Solana began last year when the price was between $45 and $48, and continued to increase thereafter. He is optimistic about Solana's prospects and believes that its activity growth rate may exceed that of Ethereum.  

Pompliano also mentioned that he believes Solana can eat into Ethereum's market share in certain areas, thereby driving its price up. Although he is optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin and Solana, he also talked about mistakes in investment, especially the failure to seize early investment opportunities such as DoorDash. He believes that these experiences made him realize the importance of understanding portfolio construction and capital allocation.

▌Survey: Women earn more than men in the crypto industry

According to Pantera Capital's salary survey, women in the crypto industry earn 15% more than men. This is a bright spot in the crypto industry, which is particularly prominent compared to the 84% of men's income in traditional industries. The survey shows that women in the crypto industry are generally more experienced and tend to be in mid-level to senior positions, with more than five years of experience. Even though experience factors are controlled, women still earn more, perhaps because they have overcome more obstacles in the industry and show greater resilience and ability.  

In addition, other theories such as men earn less than women or women are more risk-averse do not fit the data. The reversing wage gap in the crypto industry may indicate that it provides better opportunities for women, which marks the potential for this emerging field to move towards greater gender equality.

▌Report: 54% of institutional investors and 64% of retail investors plan to increase digital asset allocation

The EY-Parthenon survey report shows that many institutions and retail investors hope to increase their allocation to digital assets and digital asset-related products. The report shows that among the respondents, 94% of institutional investors and 83% of retail investors said they believe in the long-term development potential of digital assets. 54% of institutional investors and 64% of retail investors plan to increase their allocation. Institutional investors mostly seek a multi-custody model to manage their digital assets. In addition to custody, they also hope to obtain connections with more liquidity providers, the ability to borrow and lend against cryptocurrencies, and prime brokerage services.  

On the retail side, 72% of retail investors see digital assets as a core part of their overall wealth strategy, and they hope to enhance their current wealth and estate planning, tax and trust, and advisory services to cover cryptocurrencies and digital assets.

▌Ecoinometrics: The continued increase in spot Bitcoin ETFs is a good sign in the long run

Cryptocurrency research firm Ecoinometrics posted on the X platform that the holdings of spot Bitcoin ETFs have increased by nearly 300,000 Bitcoins since January. Although the pace of capturing Bitcoin has slowed significantly, the key point is that Bitcoin's growth continues even if its price stagnates. This continued accumulation is a good sign in the long run.

▌Riot Platforms: Q2 net loss of $84.4 million, Bitcoin production fell 52%

Bitcoin mining company Riot Platforms reported a net loss of $84.4 million in the second quarter, compared with a net loss of $27.4 million in the same period last year. Despite the financial setback, the company still achieved revenue of $70 million in the second quarter, slightly lower than $76.7 million in the same period last year. This result reflects the challenging environment after the recent "halving" event of the Bitcoin network. Riot Platforms also reported a 52% drop in Bitcoin production, from 1,775 in the second quarter of 2023 to 844. However, despite the decline in production, Riot Platforms still achieved strong gross margins and revenue was flat with last year.

▌US mining company CleanSpark builds new mining facility in Wyoming

US mining company CleanSpark has become the second largest mining company by market value after acquiring Riot Platforms. CleanSpark is continuing to expand and has started construction of a new factory in Cheyenne, Wyoming, which is expected to be operational by the end of the year. The company is also acquiring a second mine in Wyoming and will expand to Tennessee through the acquisition of GRIID Infrastructure. CleanSpark has signed a 75-megawatt power contract in Wyoming, of which 30 megawatts will be used to run the S21 Immersion XP application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) in the planned facility. This will increase the company's hash rate by 2EH/s. CleanSpark is looking for additional power for the facility.

▌Santiment: Starting from August, traders are generally optimistic about the top cryptocurrencies

Santiment, an on-chain and off-chain indicator intelligence platform, posted on the X platform that with the arrival of August, traders are generally optimistic about the top cryptocurrencies. It is expected that the FOMO sentiment will weaken slightly before Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and SOL rise. BNB is one of the few large cryptocurrencies with relatively weak market bullish sentiment.

▌Mining company Marathon's second-quarter revenue was US$145.1 million, lower than expected

According to FactSet data, Bitcoin mining company Marathon Digital Holdings' second-quarter revenue was US$145.1 million, which did not meet Wall Street's expectations of US$157.9 million. Marathon said in its earnings report that its second-quarter sales were hit by some operational challenges that hampered its ability to mine Bitcoin and the recent halving that weighed on the mining industry. Marathon Digital's second-quarter adjusted EBITDA swung to a loss of $85.1 million from $35.8 million a year earlier, primarily due to fair value adjustments for its digital assets and a reduction in the number of BTC mined during the quarter. The miner currently holds more than 20,000 BTC on its balance sheet. Shares of Marathon Digital (MARA) fell as much as 8% in after-hours trading Thursday, trading at around $18.14.

Important Economic Dynamics

▌The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has increased

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 78%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 29.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 57.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 13.8%.

▌Economic Daily: The Fed paves the way for interest rate cuts, and emerging economies still need to maintain rational expectations

All signs indicate that the Fed's monetary policy is approaching the time window for cyclical changes. At present, the market is optimistic about the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Overall, the conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates are ripe, and a new round of easing cycle is about to begin. If the Fed chooses a relatively mild rate cut mode in the future, the international financial market may not fluctuate greatly, but developing countries and emerging economies still need to maintain rational expectations of the Fed's rate cuts, prepare for the worst, and make contingency plans.

▌Bank of America: S&P 500 Index has limited upside in the short term

Bank of America's stock market inverse indicator rose last month, reflecting the high sentiment on Wall Street. Given that the indicator is still in the "neutral" area, rather than the "buy" or "sell" critical point, this means that the extreme pessimism about the stock market last year helped the rally, but now this momentum no longer exists. Savita Subramanian and others said in a report to clients that in July, the so-called sell-side indicator (SSI) rose 30 basis points to 55.6%. The indicator tracks the average level of strategists' recommended allocation ratios for U.S. stocks in balanced allocation funds. The bank's head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy wrote that the indicator is at its highest level since early 2022, but still below average, "suggesting that optimism has not yet reached dangerous levels." Subramanian said the S&P 500 has limited upside in the short term, but there are still opportunities for good returns within the index.

▌The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher

The three major U.S. stock indexes opened and closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 2.64%, down 0.75% in July; the S&P 500 up 1.58%, up 1.13% in July; and the Dow up 0.24%, up 4.41% in July. Among them, the S&P 500 and the Dow both rose for three consecutive months.

▌The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 100%

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 90.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 9.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 21.7%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 71.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 7.2%.

▌Powell: Rate cuts are getting closer, but not to that point

Fed Chairman Powell said that rate cuts may be discussed at the September meeting; the Fed is getting closer to rate cuts; it is generally believed that the Fed is getting closer to rate cuts, but it has not yet reached that point; from now on to the September FOMC monetary policy meeting, the Fed will also obtain a lot of data.  

Powell said that there was indeed an in-depth discussion on rate cuts at this meeting; the vast majority of people supported not adjusting interest rates at this meeting; the Fed will not make decisions based on a single factor, but will depend on the overall data performance; inflation, employment, risk balance, and overall data performance will help make decisions; the Fed just needs to see more good data. The data does not indicate that the US economy is weak or overheated; the Beige Book and the weakening of unofficial data are indeed taken seriously.  

Powell said that several inflation data released recently have strengthened confidence; the upside risks to inflation have been reduced. A 50 basis point rate cut is not something the Fed is currently considering; there is indeed a possibility of discussing a rate cut at this meeting; the vast majority of policymakers support staying put at this meeting; the time for a rate cut is getting closer, possibly in September.

▌The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 95.9%

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 86.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 12.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.4%.

▌Goldman Sachs' market value exceeds its long-term rival Morgan Stanley for the first time in four years

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, Goldman Sachs' (GS.N) market value has surpassed its long-term Wall Street rival Morgan Stanley (MS.N) for the first time. Goldman Sachs shares rose 2.6% on Tuesday, pushing its market value to $168.9 billion, narrowly surpassing Morgan Stanley's $168.6 billion market value. It's a rapid growth for Goldman, which had a market value gap of more than $20 billion at the beginning of the year. "Given the potential for positive earnings per share revisions and long-term re-ratings, Goldman's stock is one of the best risk/reward stocks in our sector," said Ebrahim Poonawala, a global research analyst at Bank of America. Goldman's shares have risen 31% this year to a record high, boosted by strong trading revenue and banking fees. Morgan Stanley's shares have risen just 11% in 2024, lagging behind its largest peers and the overall market as its wealth management business has performed mediocrely.

Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish a correct investment philosophy and be sure to increase risk awareness.