Investment cannot be copied

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

At the end of the article on September 27, there was a message from a reader:

"It's rare to see Daoge so confidently bullish on a market. If the A-share market falls back below 3,000 points in two or three months, I will buy some CSI 300 ETFs to follow Daoge's steps."

This message makes me very worried.

First of all, let me say my conclusion:

First of all, I am very grateful for the trust of this reader.

However, I strongly recommend this reader and readers with similar attitudes not to buy A-shares or CSI 300 ETFs. No matter how A-shares rise or fall in this round, don't enter the market. But you can carefully observe the next market, and then compare the market trend with your previous ideas to see if there is anything you can learn from and absorb in this process.

In my article on the 26th, I wrote about the attitudes of the current five types of participants towards A-shares:

The first four types are as follows:

The first type, completely giving up on A-shares, no matter good or bad, just ignores them.

The second type, because of this sudden big change, instantly rekindled hope for A-shares, began to pay attention to A-shares, and was ready to enter the market at any time.

The third type, no matter what the market will be like in the future, there will probably be a good market in the next few days, so hurry in and speculate.

The fourth type, this is a temporary solution, not a permanent solution, so just quit while you are ahead.

The fifth type, which I wrote specifically, is "people who believe from the bottom of their hearts that there will be this wave of market."

Obviously this reader is not the fifth type, but the second type.

And to be more specific, it is because "it is rare to see Dao Ge so sure to see a market", and (I guess) coupled with the good market in the past few days, so the hope for A-shares has been rekindled.

If such investors participate in this round of market now, even if the next bull market comes, I have also said in the article:

"It is highly likely that they will still lose money."

Why am I so sure?

Because this kind of participation does not believe from the bottom of their hearts that there will be a market, so it is highly likely that there is no set of logic and ideas to deal with the next trend.

This kind of participation is obviously not the result of independent thinking but copying homework.

And in investment, you must not copy homework. "One man's honey is my poison" is the truth.

We all know that Mr. Buffett made a lot of money by buying PetroChina, right? But what about the group of Chinese stockholders who followed the old man to buy and copied homework at that time? What was the final outcome?

We all know that the old man bought Coca-Cola and Wells Fargo and held them for a long time, right? But how many people copied the homework and bought these two stocks with the old man and made money by holding them for a long time?

Why can't you copy homework?

Because the person who copies homework essentially does not have a deep understanding of the subject, does not know where the value is, and does not know where the risk is, so he does not know why it will rise, let alone why it will fall. Therefore, he often cannot buy at the right point, let alone sell at the right point.

Some people will say:

Then can you copy homework at the buying point and selling point?

That's okay, but when the market really reaches the buying point or selling point, such investors almost 100% cannot abide by the rules.

When it really falls to the buying point, he will think: It will definitely continue to fall, don't buy first... and then perfectly miss the buying point; when it really rises to the selling point, he will think: It will definitely continue to rise, don't sell first... and then perfectly miss the selling point.

So then he enters a vicious circle of losses.

For an investment product, if you do not agree with it from the bottom of your heart, but only agree with it because someone you trust says it is good, then no matter how good such an investment product is, it is just someone else's honey, and has nothing to do with you.

Since the beginning of this year, among the well-known investors in China, I have focused on three people: Lin Yuan, Dan Bin and Duan Yongping.

Lin Yuan and Duan Yongping, I have watched a lot of videos, but unfortunately I have not found their published investment monographs, so it is a pity that I cannot learn from these two predecessors literally.

As for Dan Bin, I am very lucky to have read his "Rose of Time".

Whether watching videos or reading texts, I have benefited a lot from the experiences of these three predecessors.

The three predecessors all hold a very well-known target in A-shares, and they have all made huge profits from this target: Moutai.

Especially Dan Bin explained in great detail the reasons and logic for buying Moutai in the book "Rose of Time". This is the most detailed and profound description of Moutai's investment logic so far.

What I have learned a lot from the three predecessors is not how Moutai is, whether it is worth buying, and whether the current price is appropriate to start with, but how they can find such a stock in the big dye vat of A-shares, how they evaluate the value of Moutai, and where do they get the courage to hold an A-share for a long time?

But despite this, after learning from their experience, I still have no interest in Moutai. Even when Moutai's stock price plummeted some time ago, I didn't think about buying Moutai.

It's not that Moutai is not good, but I still feel that I still don't understand this stock enough.

So, you can't copy homework on the road to investment.

What we need to learn is not what others bought and sold, but why they bought and sold.