Iran's cryptocurrency shadow economy reaches $7.78 billion. CZ: All is well.

Headline

▌Iran's Crypto "Shadow Economy" Reaches $7.78 Billion, with IRGC Accounting for Over Half

Data from blockchain analytics company Chainalysis shows that Iran's crypto ecosystem reached $7.78 billion in 2025, with its growth rate accelerating further compared to the previous year, reaching a size equivalent to the GDP of some small countries. Iran legalized crypto mining in 2019, allowing licensed miners to use subsidized electricity, provided they sell the mined BTC to the central bank. Bitcoin is used for import payments and trade settlements outside the dollar system. In recent years, Iran's share of global Bitcoin hashrate is estimated at 2% to 5%. The report points out that the role of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in this system has been continuously strengthened. In the fourth quarter of 2025, addresses related to the IRGC accounted for over 50% of the total crypto inflows into Iran; the total inflow for the year exceeded $3 billion, higher than the approximately $2 billion in 2024.

▌CZ reports: All is well

CZ posted on the X platform, "All is well. Considering the current situation, it is actually very calm here. UAE citizens and tourists have full confidence in the national leadership and defense system. I saw some smoke in the sky and heard a few loud bangs. Fortunately, the bomb fragments landed in the courtyard of the Fairmont Hotel, not the hotel itself. Hopefully, no one was injured. This world is crazy! I hope everyone is safe and healthy!"

Market Data

As of press time, according to CoinGecko data:

BTC price is $66,191.00, with a 24-hour change of approximately –0.3%；
XRP price is $1.37, with a 24-hour change of approximately +0.7%；
TRX price is $0.28181, with a 24-hour change of approximately –0.8%；
WLFI price is $0.1123, with a 24-hour change of approximately +0.7%；
HYPE price is **Approximately $30.60, 24-hour change approximately +11%** **Policy** **▌OpenAI states regarding its agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense: AI systems will not be used to independently command autonomous weapons** **OpenAI states regarding its agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense: AI systems will not be used to independently command autonomous weapons where laws, regulations, or departmental policies require human control.** **Trump on Iran: I can choose a long war or I can end it in two or three days** **According to AXIOS, U.S. President Trump stated in an interview on Saturday that he has prepared multiple "escape routes" for the "epic fire" operation against Iran.** Trump stated, "I can intervene and control the whole situation for a long time, or I can end it all in two or three days and say to the Iranians, 'If you're going to restart (the nuclear and missile programs), then we'll see you in a few years.' Either way, it will take them several years to recover." Trump listed two main reasons for launching the attack—the first being the failure of this week's negotiations led by his envoys Witkov and Kushner. "The Iranians always come close to a deal and then back down—it's a recurring pattern. From this, I see that they don't really want a deal." The second reason is Iran's actions over the past few decades. Furthermore, according to a senior US official, the US-Israel joint operation is expected to launch a large-scale bombing campaign lasting at least five days. The E3 leaders issued a statement on Iran, stating that France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have consistently urged the Iranian regime to halt its nuclear program, limit its ballistic missile program, cease its destabilizing activities in the region and on our homeland, and end the heinous violence and repression against its own people. We have not participated in these attacks, but we maintain close contact with our international partners, including the United States, Israel, and other partners in the region. We reiterate our commitment to maintaining regional stability and protecting civilian lives. We condemn Iran's attacks on countries in the region in the strongest terms. Iran must cease its indiscriminate military strikes. We call for the resumption of negotiations and urge the Iranian leadership to seek a solution through negotiations. Ultimately, the Iranian people must be allowed to decide their own future. Kuwait Stock Exchange: Trading Suspended from March 1 Due to the escalating situation. The Kuwait Stock Exchange announced that trading will be suspended from March 1 until further notice due to the escalating situation. Blockchain Applications. Vitalik Buterin stated in an article on the X platform that Ethereum has been discussing account abstraction (AA) since early 2016, and now EIP-8141, as a comprehensive proposal, aims to solve all remaining problems related to AA. The core concept of this proposal is "frame transactions," where a transaction contains N calls that can read each other's call data and authorize senders and gas payers. This mechanism supports multiple use cases: ordinary account transactions (such as multi-signature, variable key, and quantum-resistant signature schemes) are completed through verification and execution frames; when paying gas fees using non-ETH tokens, it can be achieved through the main payment contract without any intermediaries; regarding privacy protocols, it can be implemented by verifying ZK-SNARKs or adding two-dimensional random numbers through the payment contract. In terms of security, at the on-chain level, transactions are only valid when the verification frame returns ACCEPT with a payment gas flag; at the mempool level, conservative rules will be adopted initially, with gradual expansion later. EIP-8141 is highly complementary to FOCIL; FOCIL ensures rapid transaction inclusion, while AA ensures that complex operations can be executed directly as first-class transactions. The proposal is also discussing EOA compatibility, which is feasible in principle. After more than ten years of research, these technologies are expected to be implemented through a Hegota fork within a year. Spain Urges to Launch Digital Euro by 2028 to Reduce Reliance on US Payment System The Spanish government is calling for the official launch of the digital euro to be brought forward to 2028, a year earlier than the current official target of 2029. In a competitiveness strategy document submitted to European Council President António Costa, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez stated that Europe needs to establish a "sovereign payment architecture," noting the significant growth in dollar-backed stablecoin financial intermediation activities, which increases the urgency of the project. Cryptocurrency

▌Suspected Insider Trading: Six Accounts Profit $1 Million from Betting on US Strategy Against Iran on Prediction Platform

According to analytics firm BubblemapsSA, six accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket earned approximately $1 million by betting on a US strike against Iran before February 28. These accounts were all newly opened in February, and they only placed bets on the time when a US strike was likely to occur. Some of these shares were purchased just hours before the first reports of the Tehran explosion, and some were even bought at around one-tenth of a share. This betting pattern has raised suspicions of insider trading. Blockchain analysts point out that similar patterns have appeared in other suspected insider trading cases in prediction markets, such as the case where an insider made huge profits in January by betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Maduro from power.

▌Data: A whale invested $4 million in HYPE in the past 24 hours, averaging $27.45 per token.

According to market news, a whale with the address "0x96d" invested $4 million USDC in the past 24 hours, purchasing 145,741 HYPE tokens at an average price of $27.45. Currently, the whale's HYPE tokens have generated a floating profit of over $500,000.

Analysis: Ethereum MVRV Ratio Indicates Price is in Long-Term Bottom Range. Analyst Ali stated that the current Ethereum MVRV (Market Value to Real Value Ratio) has dropped to 0.78. Historically, when the MVRV ratio falls below 0.80, ETH is usually close to a long-term bottom. However, the market is currently in a large distribution phase. Ali suggests that if selling pressure continues, potential support levels are: $1800, $1584, $1238, and $1089. Important Economic Developments: The Israeli military detected a new round of missile launches from Iran. (Golden Encyclopedia) ▌What is the true value of BTC? BTC is often compared to "digital gold," but its core value lies in its "promise of immutable scarcity." First, BTC has monetary properties, but it is not a currency because it lacks a stable unit of account. It is purely "monetary," representing a consensus game among humans regarding "what can serve as a store of value." Gold also has this core value, but its scarcity relies on physical geological constraints, while BTC's scarcity relies on mathematics and game theory—a scarcity at the information level. However, what truly makes BTC unique is not the coin itself, nor the "digital gold" narrative, but rather that blockchain is the first permissionless, unclosable value settlement layer in human history. This is a completely new category of infrastructure. No sovereign entity can unilaterally prevent the final settlement of a BTC transaction. This attribute may be underestimated in peacetime, but it will be repriced during periods of geopolitical conflict and escalating capital controls. BTC is a systemic hedge. It doesn't hedge against inflation, nor does it hedge against the US dollar. It hedges against the structural degradation of institutional trust. In other words, BTC's value is not endogenous, but reflexive: the more people believe it has value, the more valuable it becomes, and vice versa. Therefore, BTC is the financialized expression of humanity's distrust of its own institutional capabilities. Its ceiling depends on the depth and breadth of this distrust, and its floor depends on the existence of a superior alternative.