Author: Cryptowrit3r; Compiler: Vernacular Blockchain
The most discussed topic in the cryptocurrency space has always been the "Altseason". This is because crazy gains usually occur during this short period. The Altseason is considered to be the main source of attraction for crypto tourists because it helps introduce newcomers to the crypto space. Today, we will look at the top four indicators for predicting the Altseason in 2025.
The Altseason is a phenomenon in the crypto space that is known for creating crazy profits. This phenomenon occurs in all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, that is, altcoins. So think about your Solana, your BNB, your SUI, and so on. When the Altseason arrives, all of these Tokens begin to surpass Bitcoin in various indicators, and their prices soar. The price of some Tokens doubles in a few hours, and some rise by 1,000% in less than a week.
But all good things must come to an end. That’s why an alt season is usually followed by a severe sell-off, marking the apex of a bull cycle. We see an interruption to the uptrend, with prices crashing due to massive whale selling pressure. When an alt season occurs during a bear market, it is often called a relief rally and is short-lived. The sell-off begins when a token hits a resistance level on its High Time Frame (HTF). In a high time frame, each candle represents a day, week, or month. This is often called a trap bull, a favorite term of Capo in the crypto space.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has changed a lot. This is because there are now millions of crypto projects in operation, which means that when funds flow into the market, there will be a large number of projects to choose from. This may lead to the dilution of returns in the upcoming cottage season in 2025, and many Token holders will be disappointed. The flow of funds is usually shown in the figure below.
Let’s discuss the top indicators, the four major indicators of the 2025 alt season. There are four indicators that we believe will play a key role in the 2025 spare tire season:
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
ETH/BTC
USDT Dominance
Other Trading Pairs/BTC
Let's analyze each indicator one by one.
BTC.D stands for Bitcoin Dominance. This indicator is crucial to predicting where we are in the market cycle. This is because it measures Bitcoin's share of the entire crypto market. If BTC.D is 61%, then Bitcoin controls 61% of the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, 61% of liquidity is dedicated to Bitcoin. Naturally, this means that it is Bitcoin season and we should expect alts to weaken relative to Bitcoin. When BTC.D starts to decline, it is a good sign for alts. This is when things get interesting as liquidity flows more to other crypto assets such as Ethereum, blue chips, and alts.
Notice that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has reached an important resistance level on the weekly chart. This means that we can expect it to top out between 62-63%. If it does not top out, then it will continue to rise until it approaches 70% before potentially topping out again. A break below 58% on the daily chart, followed by another test of 60% and a failure to close above 60%, could indicate that the "big brother" (chad) has peaked.
The blue circle on the chart represents the 2021 alt season, when many famous crypto millionaires were born.
If you ask any crypto expert, they will tell you that ETH/BTC is one of the most important charts to watch closely. When ETH moves lower relative to BTC, the altcoin tends to weaken and experience distribution (which is a fancy way of saying a massive sell-off). However, when ETH gains momentum relative to BTC, you can expect the arrival of the altseason in 2025.
As we all know, ETH is the largest ecosystem in the crypto space and has the most TVL (Total Value Locked). TVL is as important to blockchain as deposits are to banks. That's why when it goes up, everything goes up quickly and we see green candles everywhere. Observing the high timeframe chart, you can see that ETH/BTC has been moving lower for a long time. It is now facing a strong support level of about 0.031 and can start to reverse upwards. This means that the altseason could be triggered. ETH/BTC could also reverse if it fails to break below 0.033 and closes above 0.04.
Pro Tip: When drawing this type of indicator, always use HTF candlesticks, such as monthly and weekly, or at least daily.
USDT.D is the share of USDT, the US dollar stablecoin, in the crypto market. Tether issues USDT, and we know it is the largest stablecoin in the crypto space. This means that whenever there is buying pressure, people will buy it by exchanging USDT for various crypto assets.
Generally speaking, when USDT.D goes down, people will sell USDT to buy cryptocurrencies, whether it is Bitcoin or altcoins. In difficult times, people will flock to Bitcoin, but will buy in Bitcoin Season (remember BTC.D) because the price of Bitcoin will rise. But if you see USDT.D going down and altcoins going up, then liquidity will flow more to altcoins than to Bitcoin.
There is also a chart called OTHERS that you can find on Tradingview. This chart represents all altcoins except blue chips and the top ten projects. If this chart goes up and USDT.D goes down, it means it is the altcoin season 2025 in simple terms.
USDT.D going down can also mean that investors are cashing in profits or panicking. If you see TOTAL1, the total market value of the crypto market, going down when this indicator goes down, it means something serious is happening.
You want to see this indicator drop below 4% and close below this weekly to confirm that liquidity is flowing into crypto assets. If this coincides with a drop in BTC.D, it's time to act!
We talked about OTHERS, all the alts except blue chips. A better chart is to look at the performance of these alts (OTHERS) relative to Bitcoin. To get this chart on Tradingview, just open the search bar and type in OTHERS/BTC as shown in the image. Then look for the indicator labeled and click on it.
You will be able to plot the performance of the alts relative to Bitcoin. In simple terms, whenever these alts gain momentum relative to Bitcoin, it is an alt season. Whenever Bitcoin gains momentum, it is a Bitcoin season. The best time to buy alts is when they form long-term lows relative to Bitcoin, like they are doing now.
Instead, the best time to sell alts is when they top, which is what will happen in early 2022.
Remember that no one can predict the top/bottom of the market. The best we can do is make rational guesses. The indicators help us make these guesses, but we can never get the long-term lows that everyone is waiting for. The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile and unpredictable. Never forget this. Remember that this is educational content and should not be considered financial advice.
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