Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Since the May Day holiday, Bitcoin has been sold off on a large scale, with the price falling from $63,000 to around $56,000, with the largest drop of more than 9% on the day. On May 4, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, with the price approaching $65,000, with a daily increase of 9.3%.

Unlike the violent fluctuations of Bitcoin, altcoins have been cut in half and the rebound is very weak, and major communities are no longer as lively as they were a few months ago. Has Bitcoin peaked? Is the bull market over? What opportunities are there for ordinary people?

Vernacular Blockchain invited several Crypto KOLs to discuss these topics together. The sharing guests include:

Dashuo (@ruyan768, HashGlobal technical consultant, CreatorDAO founder)
Laobai (@Wuhuoqiu, ABCDE investment research partner, Amber Group research consultant)
Natalie (@0xnatalie860, ChainFeeds researcher)
Phyrex (@Phyrex_Ni, crypto researcher)

Note: The ranking is in no particular order, sorted by a-z.

1. The market has been cold recently, and some people think that the bull market is over. What do you think?

Dashuo: BTC's bull market may have entered the middle stage, but Web3's bull market has not started yet. There is a lot of pessimism in every bull market.

Lao Bai: Impossible. Macroeconomically, interest rate cuts are just around the corner (next 6–10 months). Bitcoin has just passed its previous high, so it is impossible to end the long-term plan now.

Natalie: Due to the sideways trend of Bitcoin and the lack of hot narratives, the recent market has almost lost its wealth-creating effect, which will gradually dissipate the confidence of many people in the market. I always feel that no one can accurately predict the market cycle. The sideways stagnation of prices does not necessarily mean the end of the bull market, but may be a consolidation phase before the next trend. I still have a positive attitude towards the future.

Phyrex: According to historical trends, the bull market should not have ended yet, or the real bull market may not have started yet. In the past, the halving cycle was the stage of a big rise. Although the BTC spot ETF exploded in advance, the US election at the end of the year and the implementation of FASB will still help liquidity.

2. Is this round of market different from the previous cycle? What factors do you think are influencing this?

Dashuo: The biggest difference is not the funds and narratives, but the mentality of the old leeks. Many old leeks will miss the new narratives.

Laobai: There are too few 0-1 innovations and too many micro-innovations. Each of them has billions of FDV, and the leeks can't take it over, and there is no money-making effect.

Natalie: The market has its own trends in all cycles, and each stage has unique market dynamics. Simply comparing the current situation with past patterns is often not comprehensive enough. This year, the inflow and outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs have significantly affected market sentiment and capital flows. The fluctuations of policy factors and macroeconomic factors are still important factors. For the cryptocurrency ecosystem, I think the changes in the Bitcoin ecosystem may become a turning point in this round of market.

Phyrex: The biggest difference in this round of market is the approval of BTC spot ETF, which not only boosted everyone's confidence emotionally, but also net bought more than 530,000 BTC in four months, which greatly reduced the selling pressure on the market.

3. Which tracks and narratives do you think are promising for the next development of this round of market?

Dashuo: The tracks I am optimistic about are RWA, AI, social networks, Meme, and games.

This round of RWA is driven by top institutions. The listing of US bonds on the chain is just the beginning. The scale and types of traditional assets on the chain will increase significantly within 1-2 years.

AI must be decentralized. This is a matter of human destiny, and everyone knows this.

Meme is the key to the large-scale adoption of Web3. No one understands Web3 technology, but everyone has their favorite Meme. Opensea in the last bull market made a lot of creators make a lot of money, and this round of pumpfun makes creative small pictures that can generate emotional value more valuable. This is what Web2 cannot do. Because of Memecoins, people can collaborate on a large scale with more strangers on the Internet.

Lao Bai: AI, Bitcoin, games.

Natalie: Based on the macro impact and internal development of the ecosystem, I am optimistic about AI, intent (intention narrative), chain abstraction and Bitcoin infrastructure.

Phyrex: In this round, I am still optimistic about the DeFi and RWA tracks, but relatively speaking, there are still too few compliant projects that are mainly based on 2A and 3A securities (bonds). At present, there is only BlackRock, because it has not officially started, but I believe that with the advancement of the stablecoin bill and the improvement of the US regulation of the currency market, RWA is likely to be the most beautiful boy next.

4. How do you view Ethereum's performance in the future?

Dashuo: With the further activation of the Base chain launched by Coinbase, Ethereum will successfully verify the development route of L2s. This year or next year, larger companies will establish their own L2s. This is more important than ETH ETF in my opinion. Ethereum will have an independent market outbreak when most people are bearish, provided that L2s is initially verified or at least one AVS of Eigenlayer reaches a market value of 3 billion US dollars.

Laobai: Not angry or hot, unless the ETF is passed and a wave of money from outside the circle comes, there is nothing worth hyping about the narrative of ETH in the circle.

Natalie: Although there are often remarks about "XX flip Ethereum" and Ethereum's transaction volume has also decreased recently, Ethereum occupies an unshakable position in the market and is still the focus of market attention and the starting point of long-term successful narratives. The discussion in the Ethereum community has not diminished, and various interesting ideas have emerged in an endless stream. Recently, I have noticed that the most discussed are Based rollup, ePBS, and various account abstract EIPs (Ethereum Improvement Proposals).

Phyrex: It's hard to say about ETH. Is ZZ right now optimistic about the passing of spot ETFs? Even if the SEC determines that ETH is a security, there will be many subsequent troubles. Of course, this may not happen in the short term. If you just look at the exchange rate between ETH and BTC, ETH still has a chance.

5. The current market environment is becoming less and less friendly to ordinary people, especially newcomers. There are too many pitfalls. What suggestions do you have for new friends?

Dashuo: Stay away from noise, reduce the time you use X (Twitter), and let Farcaster be your main source of information.

Laobai: The increasingly unfriendly statement is heard every year. This is a sign of a mature market, just like the stock market. For newcomers, either just buy BTC ETH to play a long-term big cycle, or make up your mind to delve into it and become an "expert".

Phyrex: Fixed investment. Don't add any strategy, don't add any leverage, and invest in BTC in a four-year cycle, hoping to get good returns.

Natalie: For novices, it is recommended to first have a solid understanding of the basic concepts. Now that the market sentiment is relatively calm and there is no FOMO, it is a good time to learn. While the gas is low, try out the on-chain operations and various DeFi nesting dolls.

6. What are your expectations for the future development of the crypto market, such as this year, one year later, five years later, and ten years later?

Dashuo: For the future, I just want to use a sentence said by the founder of Coinbase: "onchain is the new online".

Laobai: The market has been tossing for 10 years, and in essence, except for BTC, it has not been out of the circle. Narratives are staged one after another, and bubbles are burst one after another. The expectation (or hope) is that in 3-5 years, one of the tracks of DeFi, games, Depin, and AI will be able to break out of the circle and create some real business value, rather than being almost completely dominated by market dream rate and speculation.

Natalie: People tend to overestimate the impact of technology in the short term and underestimate the impact in the long term. No one can predict short-term market changes, but for the long-term development of blockchain, I have always been optimistic since I entered the industry. In the future, I look forward to seeing more innovative applications that can focus on frictionless experience between multiple chains and lower entry barriers.

Phyrex: In the short term, the Federal Reserve has no plans to cut interest rates, which has also led to the postponement of the time for water release. It is likely that interest rates will return to a low point and water will be released until 2025 and 2026.