Author: NingNing
The Bitcoin on-chain Tx Volume chart in Glassnode's latest weekly report is very confusing. The 30-day SMA structure of Tx Volume from October 2023 to present is very similar to that from October 2020 to September 21, which will lead some people in the market to conclude that "we are already in a super bull market and the bull market is already halfway through."
The confusing thing about this chart is that the structure of the Tx Volume used for comparison has changed dramatically. The Taproot Witness TX related to inscriptions and runes has grown rapidly since 23 years ago, accounting for 41.8% of the Tx Volume at its peak, which was not seen in the previous cycle.
This can also be verified from the change chart of Bitcoin mining fees. Excluding the impact of the inscription/rune boom period, the base scale of mining fees from 23 years to now is completely incomparable with the bull market from March 20 to July 21, and is only slightly higher than the bear market in 22 years.
Therefore, the so-called "bull market" that we experienced from October 23 to March 24 was not a real super bull market, but a market composed of two seasonal markets (one autumn market + one spring market) and the new asset issuance boom.
The trend of spot trading volume in exchanges from November 22 to the present also proves this point. As shown in the figure, there are only seasonal fluctuations, and there is no trend of rising.
To summarize, the myth that "halving brings a bull market, and a bull market every four years" has been falsified this year. The reason for this myth is that the Bitcoin halving cycle has always been highly coincident with the Federal Reserve's monetary cycle. This is because Bitcoin was born in the era of the subprime mortgage crisis, and the production reduction every four years happened to be at the end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction cycle and the recovery period of the Merrill Lynch clock.
However, this round was delayed by one year due to the Federal Reserve's monetary cycle, resulting in a halving of half a year in 24 years, but only seasonal market conditions without a super bull market. However, there is no need to be pessimistic about this. The absence of a super bull market in 24 years means that a super bull market will come in 25-26 years.
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